How High Tide became the leading cannabis retailer in Canada 👇🏻🧵 $HITI
Here's the story of how High Tide evolved from day one until now.
The beginning 🌱
Raj Grover, the founder and CEO who owns ~9% of the company and has never sold a single share, comes from an entrepreneurial family and had already experienced success with several smaller businesses before establishing $HITI. During a business trip to India in search of opportunities in fashion accessories or body jewelry, Raj stumbled upon the potential of cannabis consumption accessories. Recognizing the margin arbitrage opportunity, he shipped $10,000 worth of consumption accessories to New Delhi and sold everything overnight. After replicating this success a few more times, Raj decided to open a store. This marked the beginning of High Tide's story.
In 2009, Raj opened Smokers’ Corner with an initial investment of less than $50,000 and grew it into a multimillion-dollar empire. At that time, there were only two or three competitors with unappealing stores. Raj believed that by creating a differentiated store in a smart location, he could easily capture market share, and he was right. By leveraging his established roots in Indonesia, Thailand, China, and India, he was able to not only provide a better customer experience but also offer cheaper products.
Cannabis legalization in Canada 🇨🇦
Always looking to stay ahead, Raj seized the opportunity when the Prime Minister of Canada announced that recreational cannabis would soon be legalized. With an existing customer base of cannabis users, it made perfect sense for Raj to expand into selling cannabis itself. He realized that if he only sold accessories, he would eventually lose customers to shops that offered both cannabis and accessories.
After nine years of focusing on consumption accessories and accumulating nearly $10 million in retained earnings, Raj raised $88.5 million for the first time in 2018 and ventured into the equity markets, marking the beginning of High Tide's journey as a publicly traded company. With easier access to capital when compared to its peers, High Tide expanded its footprint across Canada, highlighted by the significant acquisition of its competitor Meta in 2020, which increased the number of stores from 37 to 67.
Around the same time, $HITI began acquiring e-commerce businesses selling accessories and CBD-related products with higher margin profiles, a pivotal decision for the company. From acquiring several brands in the U.S., such as Smoke Cartel, FABCBD, Daily High Club, DankStop, and NuLeaf Holdings, to later acquiring BlessedCBD in the UK, High Tide leveraged its market power to enhance margins and diversify its revenue streams. The company continued to grow both organically and through acquisitions, expanding the number of brick-and-mortar stores across Canada.
The strategy shift that made everything change 👀
In the summer of 2021, $HITI was accepted for listing on the Nasdaq, marking a significant milestone. Later that year, a transformative decision was made: High Tide launched a discount club model for its retail stores in October 2021. With consolidated margins higher than those of any competitor due to the previously mentioned CBD-related acquisitions, High Tide could offer cannabis at remarkably low prices, attracting loyal members and rapidly gaining market share. Although this initially involved selling cannabis at a loss, the move proved to be incredibly successful. High Tide's market share increased from less than 4% to over 10% in less than three years, despite representing less than 5% of the total cannabis retail store count. Today, the discount model program has more than 1.4 million members and continues to grow each quarter.
Being the first-of-its-kind discount model was the key differentiating factor that propelled High Tide to become the leading cannabis retailer in Canada. No competitor could match their prices, and Raj targeted cannabis users who consumed regularly and were highly price-sensitive. When I first started investing in High Tide, one of its closest competitors was Fire & Flower Holdings, which ultimately went bankrupt following this price war. This strategy also significantly diminished the illicit market, further strengthening High Tide’s market share.
After capturing market share, it was time to turn profitable 💰
While Raj sacrificed margins to achieve this, economies of scale and various initiatives aimed at improving margins allowed $HITI to become positive free cash flow again in 2023, as well as positive net income in the most recent quarterly results, with a consolidated leadership position stronger than ever. Examples of these margin improvement initiatives include the acquisition of Fastendr™ Retail Kiosk and Smart Locker Technology, which, after installation in most stores, led to a decrease in General and Administrative costs. Additionally, the company began releasing white-label products with higher gross margins and introduced the new loyalty program ELITE, offering even higher discounts for a small monthly fee. This paid membership grew by 226% YoY last quarter, reaching its fastest pace ever.
Overall, High Tide took a calculated risk to become the leader in the country, and it proved to be incredibly successful. This success was only possible due to the CEO's extensive experience in the sector and deep understanding of the cannabis consumer, surpassing that of any other management team.
Thanks for reading! I really hope you enjoyed it.
While $HITI has been gradually solidifying its position in the Canadian market, the best is yet to come.
High Tide will continue to grow its market share domestically and expand into Germany and the U.S. as soon as possible.
Stay tuned.
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In my view, this is a potentially asymmetric opportunity with explosive upside over the next 2-5 years.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of my investment thesis for $CLPT: 👇🏻🧵
1) Origins
The origins of $CLPT trace back to the fall of 1998, when a pioneering group of researchers at Johns Hopkins University set out to redefine the use of MRI technology. At the time, MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) was strictly a diagnostic tool — used to visualize anatomy and detect abnormalities. However, this team, led by Dr. Paul Bottomley, then head of Advanced MR Research at Johns Hopkins, envisioned a far more ambitious application.
Alongside Dr. Bottomley were Drs. Elias Zerhouni, Ergin Atalar, and Henry Halperin — all renowned scientists in their fields. Together, they envisioned using MRI not just to see inside the body, but to guide medical procedures in real time, enabling minimally invasive interventions with unprecedented precision. This idea laid the technological and clinical foundation for what later became known as real-time, MRI-guided therapy.
To commercialize this breakthrough concept, the company Surgi-Vision, Inc. was incorporated in Delaware in 1998. In 2008, the company rebranded slightly to SurgiVision, Inc., signaling early steps toward refining its identity and commercial appeal. However, the most meaningful shift occurred in 2011, when the company changed its name to MRI Interventions, Inc., reflecting its commitment to real-time, MRI-guided procedures — a segment in which it would eventually lead with its flagship ClearPoint® system.
Finally, in 2020, the company adopted its current name, ClearPoint Neuro, Inc., aligning its corporate identity with the brand recognition of its most prominent product and signaling its broader ambition in the field of neuro-navigation and targeted drug delivery. The name “ClearPoint” has since become synonymous with precision-guided neurosurgery, positioning the company as a key enabler in the advancement of minimally invasive therapies for neurological disorders.
This evolution — from general surgical imaging to a focused neuro-intervention platform — reflects the company’s adaptive strategy and its ability to carve out a differentiated niche at the intersection of neurosurgery, medical devices, and biotechnology.
2) Business Model (1/2)
$CLPT operates a hybrid business model that straddles medical devices and drug delivery, with a clear long-term ambition: to become the backbone infrastructure for minimally invasive neurological procedures — both surgical and therapeutic. The company generates revenue through three distinct yet complementary pillars: neurosurgical disposables, biologics and drug delivery services, and capital equipment and software.
1. Neurosurgical Navigation & Therapy
The ClearPoint system enables MRI-guided procedures such as laser ablation, deep brain stimulation (DBS), and brain biopsies. Each procedure relies on proprietary, single-use consumables — such as SmartFrames, guidance cannulas, and infusion systems, three of the company’s products — billed per case. This creates a recurring, procedure-driven revenue model that does not require hospitals to make significant upfront infrastructure investments.
Beyond disposables, $CLPT provides clinical specialists who support surgeons in the operating room — a service that fosters long-term surgeon loyalty, though it carries higher delivery costs. In Q1 2025, this segment grew 70% YoY to $3.3M, driven by rising adoption of the SmartFrame OR and the PRISM Laser Therapy System. Management reported 35 procedures completed by 11 different surgeons using SmartFrame OR in early 2025 — demonstrating materially improved commercialization execution compared to the previous launch.
Importantly, the company’s latest navigation software (version 3.0) and the SmartFrame OR device enable neurosurgical procedures to migrate from MRI suites to traditional operating rooms, unlocking new hospital customers and increasing throughput. This software-hardware pairing is already seeing strong adoption and reorder intent from early users. Here’s why this is important:
MRI-Based vs. OR-Based Procedures
Historically, $CLPT's platform has been tightly integrated with the MRI suite because it offers real-time, high-precision imaging during complex neurosurgical procedures. This makes it especially valuable in cases where sub-millimeter accuracy is critical, such as:
• Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) for movement disorders
• Drug delivery procedures, including those performed in clinical trials or pre-commercial programs with pharma partners
However, with the introduction of the 3.0 software, $CLPT is now expanding its footprint into the operating room (OR) setting.
Strategic Role of the OR: Unlocking MRI Capacity
ClearPoint’s 3.0 software allows hospitals to shift certain procedures — such as routine or standard DBS cases — from the MRI suite to the OR. This is particularly valuable because:
• Drug delivery procedures will increasingly require MRI access, given the need for real-time visualization and verification of infusion quality.
• These procedures can be longer in duration due to multiple trajectories or slow infusion times, which could otherwise block MRI access for standard cases.
By moving lower-complexity procedures to the OR, $CLPT helps hospitals free up MRI capacity in anticipation of future growth in therapeutic drug delivery — a market the company expects to expand significantly over the next 2–3 years.
Forward-Looking Mix and Flexibility
The CEO Joseph Burnett outlined a fluid trajectory for the MRI vs. OR procedural mix:
• Near-term: DBS procedures may grow faster in the OR setting as hospitals adopt the 3.0 software.
• Longer-term: MRI-dependent drug therapies could increase MRI suite usage again, reinforcing the company’s MRI leadership.
This dynamic mix reinforces ClearPoint’s dual-capability platform strategy, ensuring it remains well-positioned to support both current surgical demand and future biologic delivery innovations.
Essentially:
• OR compatibility via the 3.0 software represents a meaningful expansion of ClearPoint’s total addressable market, especially among hospitals with limited MRI availability.
• The company’s infrastructure strategy aligns with pharma timelines, ensuring readiness for broader adoption of gene and cell therapy delivery via MRI in the coming years.
• Supporting both MRI and OR workflows enhances customer retention and commercial flexibility — an important differentiator in the neurosurgical navigation space.
As you know, this is the largest position in my portfolio, so it was definitely the one I was most looking forward to reviewing.
In this thread, I’ll break down everything you need to know about the Earnings Report: 🧵👇🏻
1. Financial Highlights
Before diving into the numbers, let me first reiterate what I was looking for in this report:
“After receiving several questions about what I’m expecting, here’s my Earnings Preview.
Let’s start with what doesn’t matter:
I’m not concerned about whether NBIS beats or misses Q1 consensus estimates for revenue, EBITDA, or EPS. Why? To start, there are only three analysts covering the stock, so each estimate carries disproportionate weight. Second, and more importantly, the ARR ramp-up happened during Q1, meaning revenue recognition this quarter will largely depend on the timing of those contracts. As a result, these numbers may not reflect the true trajectory of the business.
What does matter to me:
1) March ARR guidance of “at least” $220M:
This figure was provided on the last earnings call, based on already signed contracts and with more potential deals in the pipeline.
I’d be very disappointed if NBIS doesn’t meet this number. It's their own guidance — not a Street estimate.
2) Year-end ARR guidance ($750M–$1B):
I’d like to see this guidance at least reaffirmed. Based on the company’s GPU fleet and current expansion plans, a raise is possible — but given that we’re only in May, I wouldn’t be surprised to see management remain cautious.
(This guidance was already raised in December, from the previous $500M–$1B range provided in October.)”
Now, here’s what the company delivered:
• Revenue: $55.3M vs. $57.7M est.
• Adj. EBITDA: $(62.6M) vs. $(94.4M) est.
• EPS: $(0.39) vs. $(0.45) est.
While Q1 revenue came in slightly below expectations, profitability metrics were materially better than anticipated. But again, that’s not what matters most.
• March ARR came in at $249M, exceeding the $220M+ guidance (+175% QoQ and +684% YoY, absolutely mindblowing)
• April ARR reached $310M, showing an impressive +25% MoM growth
• Year-end ARR guidance was reaffirmed at $750M–$1B
• FY2025 Revenue guidance of $500M–$700M
• Adj. EBITDA turning positive in H2 2025, with the core business expected to be breakeven as soon as Q3
• Mid-term Adj. EBIT margin target of 20–30%, with a long-term goal of 30%+
“You know, the reality is that there are scenarios where we could grow more aggressively. Andre and his team are focused on building out the entire infrastructure pipeline, which could enable us to deliver more than 1 GW of capacity in the midterm. If we do that, we could exceed the midterm guidance we’ve provided. We’ll be opportunistic and pursue opportunities as they arise. I think the key drivers of incremental growth beyond our midterm guidance will be increased adoption by enterprise-level customers and larger, longer-term contracts.”
In other words, the already strong mid-term guidance could be conservative.
Importantly, the company is targeting 30%+ long-term EBIT margins while using a 4-year depreciation schedule on GPUs — which is more conservative than CoreWeave’s 6-year horizon. Even under these prudent accounting assumptions, $NBIS still expects to deliver exceptional margin performance at scale.
That’s because this isn’t just a neocloud or GPU lessor — Nebius offers software and platform services that sit on top of the infrastructure stack. This vertically integrated model is a key competitive differentiator, bringing in stickier customers and enabling AWS-like profitability at scale.
“We anticipate maintaining relatively low levels of debt, which means we’ll be able to reinvest a significant portion of our revenue to drive value creation in our core AI infrastructure business.”
• Capex for the remainder of 2025: $1.55B
The company remains disciplined and transparent about its capital structure. Management stated clearly that dilution will be avoided as much as possible (but is inevitable at some point), and they plan to leverage subsidiaries to raise non-dilutive funding.
One example:
“Should ClickHouse have a liquidity event in the near-to-mid term, this would provide us with significant capital to invest into our core business.”
$NBIS holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, which is currently valued at $6B and might potentially IPO in the future, creating a potential cash windfall.
Another key asset is Avride, a fast-growing subsidiary that management believes is worth several billion dollars:
“We are actively exploring strategic investments and partnerships to help accelerate its growth.”
As Founder & CEO Arkady Volozh put it:
“There’s no other company in this sector that can raise potentially billions of dollars in this non-dilutive way.”
The opportunity is HUGE and $NBIS has the technology, talent and funding flexibility to successfully capture it.
If you want to understand the various competitive advantages $NBIS holds in more detail, you can read my full Deep Dive via the link in my bio.
2. Current Infrastructure and Expansion Plans
$NBIS made significant strides in scaling its AI infrastructure during Q1 2025. The company's GPU fleet currently consists mostly of NVIDIA H200s, complemented by H100s. Looking ahead, $NBIS plans to begin deploying the next generation of chips — including NVIDIA B200s in Q2 and both Grace Blackwells and Blackwell Ultras in the second half of the year. These upgrades are expected to substantially increase the company’s total compute capacity by the end of 2025.
At the same time, $NBIS has been rapidly growing its data center footprint across multiple regions. Over the past three quarters, the company has evolved from a single site in Finland to a globally distributed network with multiple strategic locations. Key milestones include:
• Iceland: A new colocation site launched in March 2025.
• Kansas City, U.S.: Came online in April 2025, now fully operational and soon to be running B200 GPUs.
• New Jersey, U.S.: Announced in March 2025, this custom-built facility is under active construction and follows Nebius’ proprietary efficiency-driven design standards.
The company continues to evaluate additional sites globally. As Arkady Volozh noted, $NBIS will begin development on a new site in Israel, with more locations likely to be announced soon:
“We are actively exploring new sites in the U.S. and around the world, and we expect to provide more news on this soon.”
$NBIS expects to reach at least 100 MW of contracted data center capacity by the end of 2025, a substantial increase from its prior guidance of 60–100 MW shared just seven months ago. This tells me that the $750M–$1B ARR guidance for the end of the year will be easily achieved — and has a strong chance of being surpassed.
Looking further ahead, management expects to significantly grow capacity in 2026.
The company's aggressive buildout is not just about scale, but about enabling a differentiated offering. As management explained:
“With our expanding capacity footprint and global sales support, we are now able to serve customers 24/7 with a truly tailored approach. Our high-level experts on both sides of the Atlantic, combined with our advanced software platform, go far beyond commoditized GPU-as-a-service offerings. Our customers recognize that we’re building an AI-specialized cloud with hyperscaler-level capabilities.”
$NBIS is my largest position — and it’s finally starting to catch the attention of more investors.
I’ve been talking about it for months, so it's time to condense everything in a detailed thread.
Here’s why I believe $NBIS is one of the best opportunities in the market: 👇🏻🧵
1. Origins: From Yandex to Nebius Group
The story of $NBIS begins inside one of the most iconic tech companies to emerge from Eastern Europe: Yandex. Often dubbed the “Google of Russia”, Yandex was a digital powerhouse, dominating search, maps, ride-hailing, e-commerce, and AI in Russia and surrounding markets. At its peak, it was a $30B company and one of the most successful tech stories in the region.
Then, everything changed.
In early 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a geopolitical and moral reckoning for thousands of Yandex employees. Around 2,000 engineers, product leaders, and researchers — along with key members of Yandex’s founding team — made a bold decision: they would not be complicit. They chose to walk away from the Russian business, even if it meant leaving behind their homes, careers, and in some cases, their families.
This moral stand set in motion one of the most complex corporate restructurings in recent memory. Over the following two years, Yandex navigated sanctions, shareholder pressure, and mounting political scrutiny to ultimately divest all of its Russia-based assets. By mid-2024, a formal separation was completed.
And that’s how $NBIS was born.
Today, $NBIS is a completely independent company — composed of Nebius (AI cloud), Avride (autonomous driving), Toloka (data labeling), TripleTen (edtech), and a 28% stake in ClickHouse, the fast-growing open-source database platform. The group is legally and operationally severed from Yandex’s Russian operations. Its leadership and board have acquired Dutch or Israeli citizenship, ensuring full compliance with international sanctions and signaling a clean break from its origins.
While $NBIS inherits Yandex’s deep engineering DNA — particularly in AI infrastructure, distributed systems, and cloud computing — it is now pursuing a fundamentally different mission: to become a global leader in AI cloud services.
But with AI dominating headlines and investor attention, how is NBIS still flying under the radar?
The answer lies in its unconventional path to the public markets. Due to its roots within Yandex, $NBIS bypassed the traditional IPO process entirely. There was no roadshow, no investor marketing, and virtually no institutional coverage.
In fact, according to the company’s Founder and CEO, they were caught off guard by the listing. On a Friday, they received a call from Nasdaq informing them that Yandex’s legacy listing would transition to Nebius on Monday — just three days later. The team had to scramble to meet compliance requirements and prepare investor materials with almost no advance notice.
As a result, the stock debuted with minimal visibility. Analyst coverage is still limited, and a large portion of the float remains in the hands of retail investors.
This disconnect — between the quality of the business and its lack of market visibility — is precisely what makes $NBIS one of the most compelling and asymmetric opportunities in tech today.
As the company continues to execute on its ambitious expansion plans, it's likely only a matter of time before the broader market takes notice.
2. Core Business Explained
The AI revolution is accelerating, pushing the boundaries of what’s technologically possible — but also exposing the severe limitations of today’s compute infrastructure. As demand for AI capabilities explodes, the need for purpose-built, scalable, and efficient compute infrastructure has become one of the most urgent bottlenecks in the tech industry.
$NBIS exists to help solve that.
Positioned at the cutting edge of the global AI infrastructure market, $NBIS is building the backbone of tomorrow’s AI economy. Its mission is to deliver the infrastructure, tools, and services required to support AI innovation at scale. With ambitions to scale its operations to thousands of megawatts of GPU compute capacity, $NBIS is enabling startups, enterprises, and researchers alike to build, train, and deploy cutting-edge AI models — all on a single integrated platform.
At its core, $NBIS is a next-generation AI infrastructure company, often referred to as a “neocloud.” Unlike traditional cloud providers that retrofitted their platforms for AI, Nebius was purpose-built from the ground up for AI workloads. It combines deep expertise in hardware and software development with large-scale GPU deployments to deliver a full-stack solution designed specifically for the demands of modern AI development.
A Three-Layered Architecture: Infrastructure, Platform, and Applications
$NBIS operates across three primary layers — infrastructure, platform, and applications — creating an end-to-end ecosystem that addresses every step of the AI development lifecycle.
1. Comprehensive AI Infrastructure
Unlike many cloud providers that rely on off-the-shelf hardware and outsourced services, Nebius controls the entire value chain of its infrastructure. This full-stack control translates into both performance gains and economic efficiency:
• Custom Data Centers: Engineered for energy efficiency and high-density compute, Nebius’ data centers allow for better unit economics and scalability.
• In-House Server Design: Servers are custom-built to optimize GPU utilization and deployment speed — beyond the GPU itself — giving Nebius a competitive edge in cost and performance.
• End-to-End Stack: From hardware manufacturing to cloud orchestration, Nebius owns every layer, enabling tight integration, faster innovation cycles, and better cost controls.
• Managed Services: Tools like Apache Spark, MLflow, and others are seamlessly integrated, letting users focus on development rather than infrastructure management.
2. AI-Centric Cloud Platform
At the platform level, $NBIS has developed an AI-native cloud computing environment tailored to the needs of ML and DL practitioners. The platform integrates large-scale GPU clusters, scalable object storage, and managed tools into a cohesive offering:
• AI-Optimized Compute: Support for training, fine-tuning, and inference on some of the most advanced GPUs available, including NVIDIA H100s, H200s, and the upcoming Blackwells.
• Elastic Scalability: Whether it’s a single experiment or a massive training run, users can scale their compute resources up or down with ease.
• Low Latency & High Reliability: Proprietary cloud software and in-house hardware design ensure minimal downtime and consistent performance under load.
This cloud environment gives AI developers everything they need to build and deploy models in one place — with significantly less friction compared to general-purpose cloud services.
3. AI Studio: Inference-as-a-Service
On top of its platform and infrastructure stack, $NBIS offers AI Studio, a SaaS environment that simplifies access to powerful open-source AI models via APIs. Designed for both researchers and commercial users, the AI Studio enables fast, cost-efficient deployment of foundational models across a range of use cases:
• Plug-and-Play AI: Integration with popular models like ChatGPT, Gemini, LLama, Mistral, Qwen, DeepSeek, and others.
• Wide Model Coverage: From text generation and image synthesis to embedding models for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems, AI Studio supports a broad spectrum of AI applications.
• Fast Model Onboarding: Nebius can integrate trending models within days or even hours — exemplified by its rapid deployment of DeepSeek models.
• Market-Leading Cost Efficiency: One of the lowest price-per-token (if not the lowest) offerings for inference currently available.
This platform is particularly well-suited for customers who don’t want to manage complex infrastructure but still want to experiment, prototype, or deploy AI applications at scale.
Today, $NBIS is one of the largest non-U.S. providers of AI infrastructure. The global market for GPUs is intensely competitive: while the majority of AI chips are used internally by model developers like OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, only a fraction — around 10–20% — are made available to public cloud users via hyperscalers such as AWS or Oracle.
The remaining 30–40% of GPU supply is fragmented across dozens of alternative players — but only a handful, including CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, Together(.)ai, Deep Infra, and Nebius, possess the technical and financial capabilities to deploy large-scale infrastructure and serve global demand. Among these, Nebius stands out for its ability to serve a wide spectrum of clients, from startups and research labs to enterprise customers and AI product builders.
As its Founder & CEO, Arkady Volozh, puts it:
“We are one of the few alternatives capable of serving the core needs of major players, supplying GPUs to startups and corporate clients looking to purchase infrastructure, and supporting smaller clients who use models deployed by us. We are giving customers the freedom to choose.”
Everyone’s talking about $HIMS now, but I’ve been covering it since it was trading in the low single digits.
I’ve analyzed every single quarterly report since late 2020.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know about yesterday’s Earnings Report: 👇🏻🧵
1. Let's start with the Financial Highlights.
• Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY) vs. $538.9M est. 🟢
This marks the strongest revenue growth ever for $HIMS, driven largely by explosive demand for compounded GLP-1s. While the company expects a meaningful deceleration in this category as commercial semaglutide comes off shortage, revenue is still projected to grow >60% YoY in 2025.
• Revenue excluding GLP-1s: “Growth of nearly 30% YoY”
A sharp deceleration from previous quarters, likely contributing to the post-earnings stock selloff. However, the slowdown stems from a strategic reallocation of marketing spend toward weight loss products in anticipation of the semaglutide shortage ending. With the transition complete, $HIMS can now refocus on its broader portfolio — suggesting core revenue growth could accelerate from here.
“Rotation takes time to do efficiently, so we chose to reduce overall spend as opposed to recalibrate weight-related spend to other categories after the end of the semaglutide shortage in February.”
At the same time:
“We're seeing more subscribers come to our platform through organic and other lower-cost channels.”
• Subscribers: 2.366M (+38% YoY)
• Monthly Online Revenue per Avg Subscriber: $84 (+53% YoY)
A substantial increase, again, primarily driven by GLP-1 offerings. However, $HIMS guided that this number will moderate going forward as users transition from its compounded GLP-1s.
• Q2 Revenue Guidance: $540M vs. $567M est. 🔴
Another factor contributing to the selloff is that this marks the first time $HIMS has missed guidance and projected a sequential decline in revenue. This is clearly tied to the resolution of the semaglutide shortage, and it was unrealistic to expect the company to sustain triple-digit growth without the outsized contribution from compounded GLP-1s. As such, I wouldn’t draw overly negative conclusions from this guidance miss.
• Gross Margin: 73% vs. 77% est. 🔴 (down from 82% YoY)
While certain efficiencies continued to improve — particularly through economies of scale driven by increased volume at affiliated pharmacies and lower medical consultation costs as a percentage of revenue — gross margins declined due to a higher mix of revenue from compounded GLP-1s. With the semaglutide shortage now resolved, this trend is expected to reverse, and the CFO stated during the earnings call that gross margins should improve in Q2.
• Adj. EBITDA: $91.1M vs. $61.8M est. (+182% YoY) 🟢
• GAAP EPS: $0.20 vs. $0.12 est. 🟢
• Operating Cash Flow: $109M (+322% YoY)
• Free Cash Flow: $50.1M (+321% YoY)
• Reiterates FY2025 Revenue guidance of $2.3-2.4B vs. $2.323B est. (+56-63%) 🟢
• Raises FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance to $295-335M vs. $296.6M est. (+67-90%) 🟢
2. Every GAAP operating expense category continued to decline as a percentage of revenue, highlighting the strong efficiency of $HIMS' business model and its impressive ability to unlock operating leverage at scale.
On marketing efficiency, management noted:
“We benefited from efficiencies related to new product launches and improving organic customer acquisition trends, which more than offset higher spend driven in part by our first Super Bowl commercial.”
While some quarter-to-quarter volatility is expected, the company remains confident in its ability to drive 1 to 3 percentage points of marketing leverage per year.
As a result, $HIMS managed to double its net profit margin while simultaneously doubling its revenue YoY, leading to a fourfold increase in GAAP EPS over the past twelve months — an exceptional performance by any standard.
The same momentum is evident in its cash flow generation. While FCF wasn’t as high as in prior quarters, it still grew by 321% YoY, and operating cash flow reached a new all-time high. The only reason FCF didn’t follow suit was due to a deliberate increase in Capex aimed at strengthening infrastructure. These investments are strategically aligned with the company’s long-term vision and will reinforce $HIMS' competitive advantages and leadership in the sector.
Given the company’s strong balance sheet and highly efficient business model, allocating capital toward long-term infrastructure — even at the expense of short-term margins — appears to be a prudent and value-accretive decision.
Examples of recent Capex investments designed to enhance infrastructure and support the company’s long-term goal of serving tens of millions of subscribers:
• Expanded internal fulfillment footprint from 400K to nearly 700K sq. ft. in Arizona
• Upgraded automation equipment to enable personalized and scalable precision medicine
• Built out sterile fulfillment capacity to support new categories like low testosterone therapy and menopause support
• Investing in diagnostic lab capabilities to enhance personalization and lower consumer friction
In summary, these infrastructure investments reflect $HIMS' clear intention to build a durable, defensible platform capable of scaling efficiently over the long term. Rather than optimizing for short-term gains, the company is positioning itself to capitalize on massive future demand across multiple high-growth categories — a strategic approach that underscores both management’s discipline and the strength of the underlying business model.
My first Deep Dive on $TEM reached over 1M investors.
Today, I’m back with an update — and a brand new Valuation Model where I break down each segment individually to estimate the company's fair value.
Here’s everything you need to know about Tempus AI: 👇🏻🧵
1. Introduction
$TEM is a cutting-edge precision medicine company founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky. The inspiration for Tempus arose from Lefkofsky’s personal life — his wife’s battle with breast cancer revealed how limited the role of technology was in shaping her care. Determined to change this, Lefkofsky set out to integrate advanced technology into healthcare, addressing a critical gap in the industry.
At its core, $TEM leverages AI to analyze vast amounts of clinical, imaging and molecular data. Its goal is ambitious yet clear: to revolutionize healthcare by enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier and more accurate disease diagnoses.
Tempus AI initially focused only on oncology, enabling doctors to deliver tailored treatments for cancer patients. This “intelligent diagnostics” model proved so effective that the company expanded its efforts into other critical areas, such as neuropsychology and cardiology.
Today, $TEM's technology empowers thousands of physicians and life science companies, making a tangible difference in patients' lives.
2. The Booming Market for AI in Healthcare
The global AI in healthcare market is experiencing unprecedented growth, projected to expand from $15B in 2024 to a staggering $164B by 2030, representing a CAGR of 49.1%.
This explosive growth is driven by several factors, including:
• Increased Investments: Significant public and private sector funding is accelerating the adoption of AI technologies in healthcare.
• Rapid AI Proliferation: The integration of AI into healthcare systems is transforming diagnostics, treatment planning, and patient outcomes.
• Focus on Human-Aware AI Systems: Advances in AI technology are enabling more personalized and human-centered solutions, which are crucial in the healthcare domain.
Tempus AI is uniquely positioned to capitalize on some of these trends. With its AI-powered precision medicine platform, $TEM is not only a pioneer in embedding AI into healthcare workflows but also a leader in driving real-world impact.
Today brought several key updates on $NBIS that further reinforced my high conviction in the company.
Here’s a breakdown of the most important takeaways: 🧵👇🏻
1. First, it’s worth noting that the source is a Seeking Alpha article titled “Nebius: Minutes Of Our Call With The Company.”
I highly recommend reading the full piece.
The author had a brief call with $NBIS' IR team and shared a summary of the conversation.
2. $NBIS has more demand than it can supply.
“Our customer base is in strong demand. Those customers are utilizing our full stack, and we are providing them with significant additional value beyond the GPU.
In March, we were fully sold out, and we got additional GPUs and are selling the additional capacity well.
We feel very good about the demand for our services.”
So no, the market is not saturated by any means — and $NBIS has key differentiators that make it a top choice for customers.