Everyone's talking about Rare Earth Elements (REEs), but few truly understand why they matter.

In this thread, I'll break down what makes REEs so critical, the global imbalance threatening supply chains, and the biggest challenge that still needs to be solved.

🧵👇🏻 1) What Are Rare Earth Elements (REEs)?

Despite the name, REEs are not geologically rare. The term refers to a group of 17 chemically similar elements: the 15 lanthanides (atomic numbers 57–71) plus scandium and yttrium. These elements typically occur together in mineral deposits, making their separation and extraction complex and resource-intensive.

Since their discovery in the late 18th century, starting with yttrium, named after the Swedish village of Ytterby, REEs have gradually become integral to modern life. They enable critical functionality in technologies such as smartphones, electric vehicles, wind turbines, medical imaging devices, advanced defense systems, robotics, and more.

Because of their unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties, REEs are often described as the “vitamins” of modern industry.

As a highly concentrated investor, I rarely initiate new sizable positions.

However, over the past few weeks, I’ve been steadily buying $PGY.

I believe it could be an asymmetric opportunity over the next 12–24 months.

Here’s a Deep Dive explaining my investment thesis: 🧵👇🏻 1. Origins

$PGY was founded in 2016 in Israel by Gal Krubiner (CEO), Avital Pardo (CTO), and Yahav Yulzari (CBO), three longtime friends and entrepreneurs who had already worked together on real estate and finance ventures prior to starting the company. Their friendship and shared entrepreneurial spirit laid the groundwork for what would later become one of Israel’s most notable fintech success stories.

The inspiration for $PGY emerged not from a single idea, but from a deep, ongoing conversation between the three co-founders about the future of finance. As Gal Krubiner recalled in an interview, a pivotal phone call changed their trajectory: “Real estate is nice, finance is nice, but tech is where the magic is happening.” They realized that to truly build something impactful and scalable, they had to move beyond traditional asset classes and embrace the power of technology, particularly AI and data science.

Their entry point into tech-enabled finance began with peer-to-peer lending, which at the time was a nascent and loosely defined segment. As they studied it more closely, the opportunity became clear: consumer credit was a $4T market, and yet it was underserved by traditional financial institutions and largely ignored by institutional asset managers. The trio saw a massive gap between demand and access, particularly among consumers who were deemed “unscorable” by legacy credit systems.

The company’s name, Pagaya, is derived from the Hebrew word פגיעה (pagiah), meaning “impact” or “connection.” This reflects the firm’s mission: to bridge the disconnect between borrowers and lenders, data and decision-making, capital and opportunity.

Founding Philosophy: Data Over FICO

$PGY's core insight was that legacy credit scoring systems, especially the widely used FICO model, were not equipped to assess modern credit risk. FICO is static, backward-looking, and rule-based, relying on a limited set of historical variables. This leaves out entire segments of the population: immigrants, gig workers, young professionals, or anyone without a long credit history. These consumers may be creditworthy, but the system fails to recognize their potential.

$PGY's founders believed that machine learning and alternative data could unlock access to credit for these underserved individuals. Drawing from Avital Pardo’s experience as the first data scientist at Fundbox, the team built AI models capable of ingesting hundreds of variables per applicant, including bank transactions, income patterns, job history, and behavioral indicators, to assess creditworthiness in real time.

Rather than becoming a lender themselves, they envisioned $PGY as a B2B2C infrastructure layer. The idea was to embed their AI models directly into the origination workflows of banks, credit unions, and fintech lenders. This would allow financial institutions to say “yes” more often while maintaining risk discipline, and without $PGY needing a banking license or large balance sheet.

Early Days and Initial Capital

$PGY launched its first major product in personal loans, initially under an asset management model that used AI to guide investment decisions. The company raised capital to manage on behalf of institutions and launched the Pagaya Opportunity Fund in 2018. Early investors believed the technology had the potential to one day manage sovereign-level capital.

However, as the founders would later acknowledge, the initial business model had limitations. The market for electronic, AI-driven asset management was not yet mature enough to support rapid scaling. By 2019, the team made a decisive pivot: rather than solely managing money, $PGY would offer its AI infrastructure directly to U.S. lenders to improve underwriting decisions. That transition, from AI-driven asset management to an embedded lending platform, was a defining moment in the company’s journey.

Growth and Transition to the U.S.

From that inflection point, $PGY rapidly expanded across the U.S. consumer credit market. The U.S. offered scale, regulatory fragmentation, and a deep ABS market, all favorable conditions for $PGY's model. The company soon began diversifying beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale (POS) financing. In 2024, it relocated its headquarters to New York City, a strategic move to strengthen relationships with institutional investors and reinforce its presence in the U.S. financial ecosystem.

$PGY's API-based integration allowed banks and fintechs to embed its AI underwriting tools seamlessly into their lending flows. The result was a frictionless experience for consumers, and a powerful tool for lenders to expand credit access responsibly.

One of $PGY's most important early milestones was partnering with U.S. Bank, one of the top five banks in the country. This institutional validation unlocked further growth and helped attract other top-tier financial partners.

SPAC Merger and Public Listing

In June 2022, $PGY went public via a SPAC merger with EJF Acquisition Corp, in a deal that valued the company at $8.5B on a pro forma basis. The listing was one of the largest fintech SPAC transactions to date and provided Pagaya with significant capital to scale its AI platform, expand lending partnerships, and deepen its U.S. presence.

Shortly after going public, $PGY became the subject of intense market speculation. In late July 2022, a dramatic short squeeze sent the stock surging by more than 1,000% in a matter of days, briefly making it one of the most talked-about SPAC stocks of the year. The float was extremely limited due to the high redemption rate by SPAC shareholders prior to the merger, which contributed to the sharp volatility and attracted retail trading interest.

However, the rally was short-lived. As the float gradually increased and liquidity returned, $PGY's stock price collapsed almost as quickly as it had risen. The extreme volatility drew scrutiny and contributed to broader skepticism surrounding SPAC structures, especially in the fintech space.

Compounding this were difficult macroeconomic conditions. Rising interest rates, tightening liquidity, and a sharp slowdown in consumer lending activity weighed on $PGY's core business. The company faced several problems that created significant pressure on reported earnings and sentiment, further exacerbating the stock’s decline throughout 2022 and into 2023.

Despite these headwinds, $PGY remained focused on strengthening its platform fundamentals. The company continued to expand its network of bank and fintech partners, and refined its AI-driven underwriting models. This strategic focus, coupled with a shift toward more capital-efficient structures, positioned the company to emerge from the downturn as a more resilient and scalable infrastructure provider.

“That experience matured us. Emotionally, it was a rollercoaster. For employees, it was the dream and its collapse, and all the noise made it hard to focus. But we came through it. There’s now a strong understanding and connection between the team and our business results. Ultimately, we’re helping people get access to credit, and that clarified our mission.”

I recently added a new position to my portfolio.

In my view, this is a potentially asymmetric opportunity with explosive upside over the next 2-5 years.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of my investment thesis for $CLPT: 👇🏻🧵 1) Origins

The origins of $CLPT trace back to the fall of 1998, when a pioneering group of researchers at Johns Hopkins University set out to redefine the use of MRI technology. At the time, MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) was strictly a diagnostic tool — used to visualize anatomy and detect abnormalities. However, this team, led by Dr. Paul Bottomley, then head of Advanced MR Research at Johns Hopkins, envisioned a far more ambitious application.

Alongside Dr. Bottomley were Drs. Elias Zerhouni, Ergin Atalar, and Henry Halperin — all renowned scientists in their fields. Together, they envisioned using MRI not just to see inside the body, but to guide medical procedures in real time, enabling minimally invasive interventions with unprecedented precision. This idea laid the technological and clinical foundation for what later became known as real-time, MRI-guided therapy.

To commercialize this breakthrough concept, the company Surgi-Vision, Inc. was incorporated in Delaware in 1998. In 2008, the company rebranded slightly to SurgiVision, Inc., signaling early steps toward refining its identity and commercial appeal. However, the most meaningful shift occurred in 2011, when the company changed its name to MRI Interventions, Inc., reflecting its commitment to real-time, MRI-guided procedures — a segment in which it would eventually lead with its flagship ClearPoint® system.

Finally, in 2020, the company adopted its current name, ClearPoint Neuro, Inc., aligning its corporate identity with the brand recognition of its most prominent product and signaling its broader ambition in the field of neuro-navigation and targeted drug delivery. The name “ClearPoint” has since become synonymous with precision-guided neurosurgery, positioning the company as a key enabler in the advancement of minimally invasive therapies for neurological disorders.

This evolution — from general surgical imaging to a focused neuro-intervention platform — reflects the company’s adaptive strategy and its ability to carve out a differentiated niche at the intersection of neurosurgery, medical devices, and biotechnology.

Today, $NBIS released its Q1 2025 results.

As you know, this is the largest position in my portfolio, so it was definitely the one I was most looking forward to reviewing.

In this thread, I’ll break down everything you need to know about the Earnings Report: 🧵👇🏻 1. Financial Highlights

Before diving into the numbers, let me first reiterate what I was looking for in this report:

“After receiving several questions about what I’m expecting, here’s my Earnings Preview.

Let’s start with what doesn’t matter:

I’m not concerned about whether NBIS beats or misses Q1 consensus estimates for revenue, EBITDA, or EPS. Why? To start, there are only three analysts covering the stock, so each estimate carries disproportionate weight. Second, and more importantly, the ARR ramp-up happened during Q1, meaning revenue recognition this quarter will largely depend on the timing of those contracts. As a result, these numbers may not reflect the true trajectory of the business.

What does matter to me:

1) March ARR guidance of “at least” $220M:

This figure was provided on the last earnings call, based on already signed contracts and with more potential deals in the pipeline.

I’d be very disappointed if NBIS doesn’t meet this number. It's their own guidance — not a Street estimate.

2) Year-end ARR guidance ($750M–$1B):

I’d like to see this guidance at least reaffirmed. Based on the company’s GPU fleet and current expansion plans, a raise is possible — but given that we’re only in May, I wouldn’t be surprised to see management remain cautious.

(This guidance was already raised in December, from the previous $500M–$1B range provided in October.)”

Now, here’s what the company delivered:

• Revenue: $55.3M vs. $57.7M est.
• Adj. EBITDA: $(62.6M) vs. $(94.4M) est.
• EPS: $(0.39) vs. $(0.45) est.

While Q1 revenue came in slightly below expectations, profitability metrics were materially better than anticipated. But again, that’s not what matters most.

• March ARR came in at $249M, exceeding the $220M+ guidance (+175% QoQ and +684% YoY, absolutely mindblowing)

• April ARR reached $310M, showing an impressive +25% MoM growth

• Year-end ARR guidance was reaffirmed at $750M–$1B

• FY2025 Revenue guidance of $500M–$700M

• Adj. EBITDA turning positive in H2 2025, with the core business expected to be breakeven as soon as Q3

• Mid-term Revenue guidance: “Mid-single-digit billions”

• Mid-term Adj. EBIT margin target of 20–30%, with a long-term goal of 30%+

“You know, the reality is that there are scenarios where we could grow more aggressively. Andre and his team are focused on building out the entire infrastructure pipeline, which could enable us to deliver more than 1 GW of capacity in the midterm. If we do that, we could exceed the midterm guidance we’ve provided. We’ll be opportunistic and pursue opportunities as they arise. I think the key drivers of incremental growth beyond our midterm guidance will be increased adoption by enterprise-level customers and larger, longer-term contracts.”

In other words, the already strong mid-term guidance could be conservative.

Importantly, the company is targeting 30%+ long-term EBIT margins while using a 4-year depreciation schedule on GPUs — which is more conservative than CoreWeave’s 6-year horizon. Even under these prudent accounting assumptions, $NBIS still expects to deliver exceptional margin performance at scale.

That’s because this isn’t just a neocloud or GPU lessor — Nebius offers software and platform services that sit on top of the infrastructure stack. This vertically integrated model is a key competitive differentiator, bringing in stickier customers and enabling AWS-like profitability at scale.

• Cash Position: $1.44B
• Debt: None — resulting in low interest burden

“We anticipate maintaining relatively low levels of debt, which means we’ll be able to reinvest a significant portion of our revenue to drive value creation in our core AI infrastructure business.”

• Capex for the remainder of 2025: $1.55B

The company remains disciplined and transparent about its capital structure. Management stated clearly that dilution will be avoided as much as possible (but is inevitable at some point), and they plan to leverage subsidiaries to raise non-dilutive funding.

One example:

“Should ClickHouse have a liquidity event in the near-to-mid term, this would provide us with significant capital to invest into our core business.”

$NBIS holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, which is currently valued at $6B and might potentially IPO in the future, creating a potential cash windfall.

Another key asset is Avride, a fast-growing subsidiary that management believes is worth several billion dollars:

“We are actively exploring strategic investments and partnerships to help accelerate its growth.”

As Founder & CEO Arkady Volozh put it:

“There’s no other company in this sector that can raise potentially billions of dollars in this non-dilutive way.”

The opportunity is HUGE and $NBIS has the technology, talent and funding flexibility to successfully capture it.

If you want to understand the various competitive advantages $NBIS holds in more detail, you can read my full Deep Dive via the link in my bio.

$NBIS is my largest position — and it’s finally starting to catch the attention of more investors.

I’ve been talking about it for months, so it's time to condense everything in a detailed thread.

Here’s why I believe $NBIS is one of the best opportunities in the market: 👇🏻🧵 1. Origins: From Yandex to Nebius Group

The story of $NBIS begins inside one of the most iconic tech companies to emerge from Eastern Europe: Yandex. Often dubbed the “Google of Russia”, Yandex was a digital powerhouse, dominating search, maps, ride-hailing, e-commerce, and AI in Russia and surrounding markets. At its peak, it was a $30B company and one of the most successful tech stories in the region.

Then, everything changed.

In early 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a geopolitical and moral reckoning for thousands of Yandex employees. Around 2,000 engineers, product leaders, and researchers — along with key members of Yandex’s founding team — made a bold decision: they would not be complicit. They chose to walk away from the Russian business, even if it meant leaving behind their homes, careers, and in some cases, their families.

This moral stand set in motion one of the most complex corporate restructurings in recent memory. Over the following two years, Yandex navigated sanctions, shareholder pressure, and mounting political scrutiny to ultimately divest all of its Russia-based assets. By mid-2024, a formal separation was completed.

And that’s how $NBIS was born.

Today, $NBIS is a completely independent company — composed of Nebius (AI cloud), Avride (autonomous driving), Toloka (data labeling), TripleTen (edtech), and a 28% stake in ClickHouse, the fast-growing open-source database platform. The group is legally and operationally severed from Yandex’s Russian operations. Its leadership and board have acquired Dutch or Israeli citizenship, ensuring full compliance with international sanctions and signaling a clean break from its origins.

While $NBIS inherits Yandex’s deep engineering DNA — particularly in AI infrastructure, distributed systems, and cloud computing — it is now pursuing a fundamentally different mission: to become a global leader in AI cloud services.

But with AI dominating headlines and investor attention, how is NBIS still flying under the radar?

The answer lies in its unconventional path to the public markets. Due to its roots within Yandex, $NBIS bypassed the traditional IPO process entirely. There was no roadshow, no investor marketing, and virtually no institutional coverage.

In fact, according to the company’s Founder and CEO, they were caught off guard by the listing. On a Friday, they received a call from Nasdaq informing them that Yandex’s legacy listing would transition to Nebius on Monday — just three days later. The team had to scramble to meet compliance requirements and prepare investor materials with almost no advance notice.

As a result, the stock debuted with minimal visibility. Analyst coverage is still limited, and a large portion of the float remains in the hands of retail investors.

This disconnect — between the quality of the business and its lack of market visibility — is precisely what makes $NBIS one of the most compelling and asymmetric opportunities in tech today.

As the company continues to execute on its ambitious expansion plans, it's likely only a matter of time before the broader market takes notice.

Everyone’s talking about $HIMS now, but I’ve been covering it since it was trading in the low single digits.

I’ve analyzed every single quarterly report since late 2020.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know about yesterday’s Earnings Report: 👇🏻🧵 1. Let's start with the Financial Highlights.

• Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY) vs. $538.9M est. 🟢

This marks the strongest revenue growth ever for $HIMS, driven largely by explosive demand for compounded GLP-1s. While the company expects a meaningful deceleration in this category as commercial semaglutide comes off shortage, revenue is still projected to grow >60% YoY in 2025.

• Revenue excluding GLP-1s: “Growth of nearly 30% YoY”

A sharp deceleration from previous quarters, likely contributing to the post-earnings stock selloff. However, the slowdown stems from a strategic reallocation of marketing spend toward weight loss products in anticipation of the semaglutide shortage ending. With the transition complete, $HIMS can now refocus on its broader portfolio — suggesting core revenue growth could accelerate from here.

“Rotation takes time to do efficiently, so we chose to reduce overall spend as opposed to recalibrate weight-related spend to other categories after the end of the semaglutide shortage in February.”

At the same time:

“We're seeing more subscribers come to our platform through organic and other lower-cost channels.”

• Subscribers: 2.366M (+38% YoY)

• Monthly Online Revenue per Avg Subscriber: $84 (+53% YoY)

A substantial increase, again, primarily driven by GLP-1 offerings. However, $HIMS guided that this number will moderate going forward as users transition from its compounded GLP-1s.

• Q2 Revenue Guidance: $540M vs. $567M est. 🔴

Another factor contributing to the selloff is that this marks the first time $HIMS has missed guidance and projected a sequential decline in revenue. This is clearly tied to the resolution of the semaglutide shortage, and it was unrealistic to expect the company to sustain triple-digit growth without the outsized contribution from compounded GLP-1s. As such, I wouldn’t draw overly negative conclusions from this guidance miss.

• Gross Margin: 73% vs. 77% est. 🔴 (down from 82% YoY)

While certain efficiencies continued to improve — particularly through economies of scale driven by increased volume at affiliated pharmacies and lower medical consultation costs as a percentage of revenue — gross margins declined due to a higher mix of revenue from compounded GLP-1s. With the semaglutide shortage now resolved, this trend is expected to reverse, and the CFO stated during the earnings call that gross margins should improve in Q2.

• Adj. EBITDA: $91.1M vs. $61.8M est. (+182% YoY) 🟢

• GAAP EPS: $0.20 vs. $0.12 est. 🟢

• Operating Cash Flow: $109M (+322% YoY)

• Free Cash Flow: $50.1M (+321% YoY)

• Reiterates FY2025 Revenue guidance of $2.3-2.4B vs. $2.323B est. (+56-63%) 🟢

• Raises FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance to $295-335M vs. $296.6M est. (+67-90%) 🟢

My first Deep Dive on $TEM reached over 1M investors.

Today, I’m back with an update — and a brand new Valuation Model where I break down each segment individually to estimate the company's fair value.

Here’s everything you need to know about Tempus AI: 👇🏻🧵 1. Introduction

$TEM is a cutting-edge precision medicine company founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky. The inspiration for Tempus arose from Lefkofsky’s personal life — his wife’s battle with breast cancer revealed how limited the role of technology was in shaping her care. Determined to change this, Lefkofsky set out to integrate advanced technology into healthcare, addressing a critical gap in the industry.

At its core, $TEM leverages AI to analyze vast amounts of clinical, imaging and molecular data. Its goal is ambitious yet clear: to revolutionize healthcare by enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier and more accurate disease diagnoses.

Tempus AI initially focused only on oncology, enabling doctors to deliver tailored treatments for cancer patients. This “intelligent diagnostics” model proved so effective that the company expanded its efforts into other critical areas, such as neuropsychology and cardiology.

Today, $TEM's technology empowers thousands of physicians and life science companies, making a tangible difference in patients' lives.

Today brought several key updates on $NBIS that further reinforced my high conviction in the company.

Here’s a breakdown of the most important takeaways: 🧵👇🏻 1. First, it’s worth noting that the source is a Seeking Alpha article titled “Nebius: Minutes Of Our Call With The Company.”

I highly recommend reading the full piece.

The author had a brief call with $NBIS' IR team and shared a summary of the conversation.

Until last week, my portfolio consisted only of founder-led stocks, but I finally made an exception by opening a position in $DLO.

Here’s a thread breaking down my investment thesis and why I believe its CEO deserves my trust: 👇🏻🧵 1. Origins

$DLO was founded as a response to a pressing issue in Latin America: the difficulty of making online payments. The company’s origins trace back to Uruguay, where Sebastián Kanovich, one of the key founders, first encountered the problem firsthand. As a young economist with no prior background in technology, Sebastián stumbled into the fintech world by chance when he realized that making international online purchases was nearly impossible for consumers in his home country. His personal frustration — specifically, being unable to buy an NBA League Pass or shop online without borrowing a credit card — led him to recognize a larger systemic issue.

He joined forces with two partners who had already begun assembling an initial team to address these payment challenges. At the time, he was working at Santander Bank but was drawn to the opportunity to build something innovative. The founding team’s first venture into payments was a small-scale operation, focusing on a single solution for one customer. They initially operated with a kiosk model, solving local payment issues in Uruguay before expanding their scope.

The company’s first major breakthrough came with Brazil’s Boleto system, a widely used cash-based payment method. Traditionally, Brazilian consumers would generate a Boleto — a type of payment slip — and physically pay it at a bank or kiosk. $DLO developed a solution that digitized this process, allowing users to issue Boletos at checkout and complete transactions seamlessly. While the team initially believed they had solved a major problem, they soon realized that payment challenges extended far beyond Brazil and involved a wide array of localized payment methods across Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

$DLO's growth trajectory accelerated as global companies began seeking ways to expand into emerging markets. Initially, large U.S. firms like Facebook and Google were hesitant to invest in Latin American payment solutions, focusing instead on European expansion. However, as emerging markets gained importance in global business strategies, interest in $DLO's services grew. The company transitioned from offering just a single payment method to aggregating over 900 different payment solutions across various regions, all accessible through a single API. This comprehensive approach significantly increased $DLO's value proposition.

A pivotal moment came when GoDaddy became $DLO's first major U.S. client. Initially, $DLO attempted a direct-to-consumer (B2C) model, launching a prepaid card under its own brand. However, GoDaddy’s feedback was clear: customers didn’t care about the brand, they cared about seamless payment solutions. This insight pushed $DLO to pivot towards a B2B model, positioning itself as an infrastructure provider rather than a consumer-facing brand. This shift proved to be a game-changer, enabling the company to secure more enterprise clients and scale its operations globally.

Founder-led companies have historically outperformed the market by a wide margin — but choosing wisely is crucial.

Here are 10 interesting companies where the founder remains both the CEO and the largest shareholder: 👇🏻🧵

1) $NBIS

• Emerging leader in AI infrastructure, providing a full-stack AI cloud platform, high-performance computing, and advanced data center solutions
• Its story begins within Yandex, but it’s now fully independent, with no ties to Russia — founder and executives relocated and changed nationalities to avoid sanctions
• Positioned to benefit from the skyrocketing demand for AI computing power, offering cost-effective and energy-efficient solutions
• Strong competitive edge in cost efficiency, with total GPU costs up to 25% lower than industry averages due to vertical integration and strategic partnerships
• Industry-leading energy efficiency, with best-in-class Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of ~1.13
• Strategic partnership with NVIDIA, which recently invested in $NBIS — will be the first provider in Europe to offer NVIDIA’s new Blackwell GPUs in 2025
• Expanding aggressively, with plans to triple its Finland data center capacity and launch new facilities across Europe and the U.S., targeting 240,000 GPUs by 2027+
• Surging Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), growing from $21M in 2023 to an estimated $170M–$190M in 2024, with projections of $750M–$1B ARR by 2025
• Strong balance sheet with over $2B in cash and no debt, but likely to raise more capital to accelerate expansion
• Several non-core divisions, including Avride (autonomous driving tech with Uber partnerships), Toloka (AI data solutions), and TripleTen (edtech), adding optionality and potential future value
• Trading at an attractive valuation compared to peers, with 7–8x forward EV/ARR despite expected 4–5x YoY growth in 2025 and 100%+ growth in 2026
• Potential for over 30% CAGR over the next few years IMO, with significant upside as institutional investors recognize its growth potential 2) $HIMS

• Cash-pay model that bypasses the need for insurance
• Provides high-quality, personalized, and affordable healthcare treatments (involved in the whole process)
• Positioned to benefit from many secular trends in the huge telehealth market
• Optionality to launch new categories and easily expand into new markets (several potential catalysts)
• Customer-centric approach that delivers a better experience than its peers
• Innovation stack combined with remarkable execution positions it for continued success
• Many years of customer data make some of its competitive advantages harder to replicate, particularly the personalization of dosages to improve outcomes and reduce side effects
• 2M+ subscribers growing 40%+ YoY
• Percentage of personalized subscribers increasing at an incredibly fast rate
• Improving retention rates, a critical factor in this sector
• Highly efficient distribution network, with thousands of affiliated pharmacies
• Investing in infrastructure to verticalize its supply chain
• Capex-light business model with impressive margins (75%+ gross margins, 15%+ FCF)
• Consistently surpassed analysts' estimates since inception
• Growing revenues by 65%+ this year, and likely to compound >20%/year over the next 5 years, with further operating leverage expected
• No debt and an increasing cash pile, even while executing buybacks and reinvesting in growth and optimization

Last week, $HITI released its Q4 2024 earnings report.

As a longtime shareholder, I’ve been closely following the company for years.

Here’s a breakdown of everything: 🧵👇🏻 1. Let’s start with the Financial Results.

Record revenue of $138.3M, exceeding consensus estimates of $135M. 🟢

Signs of revenue acceleration, with double-digit growth expected in 2025. The core business grew 12% YoY, but overall growth was slightly offset by underperformance in e-commerce.

Despite a $35.2M revenue increase, total expenses declined by $5.9M, demonstrating disciplined cost management.

FCF increased from $7M to $22M YoY (+217%), highlighting improved operational efficiency.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY to $38.3M, with margin expansion from 6.3% to 7.3%.

Achieved Net Income profitability (excluding non-cash impairments) for the first time: $1.2M vs. a ($6.7M) loss YoY.

Same-store sales (SSS) increased 0.4% YoY and 3% QoQ, outperforming the broader cannabis retail market, which declined 1% YoY. I was expecting SSS to show slightly better growth, but it’s still a solid performance given the overall market conditions.

Gross margins remained stable YoY at 26% (down from 27% QoQ) – The company is avoiding price increases to allow weaker competitors to exit the market, setting up for future margin expansion.

“More and more competitors are leaving the race, big chains are struggling, middle size chains are struggling, independents are struggling. So as more competitors get out of the race, there's not going to be a lot of competitors remaining to be waging a price war with us. And at that point, we have a tremendous opportunity to increase gross margins in our core Canadian cannabis business.”

$HITI ended the fiscal year with a record cash balance of $47.3M and no debt maturities until September 2027. Total debt stands at $27M, with only $12M maturing in 2027.

All in all, $HITI delivered a strong quarter. As industry consolidation progresses, the company is well-positioned to enhance margins and drive sustained long-term growth. It’s important to note that the overall market has been struggling due to the resurgence of the illicit market, but management has been highly competent in navigating these short-term headwinds.

Alignment between managers and shareholders is one of the most important drivers of long-term success.

Here are 8 stocks from companies where the Founder & CEO holds a 20%+ stake: 👇🏻🧵

1) $TEM

The Founder & CEO, Eric Lefkofsky, owns 24.7% of the company.

Everyone is talking about it after Nancy Pelosi purchased $50k–$100k worth of call options set to expire in January 2026. Following a rally of over 30% because of this, I’ve decided not to start a position for now. However, it’s definitely an intriguing company that I’m keeping on my radar.

• It’s essentially a precision medicine company leveraging AI to analyze clinical and molecular data, enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier disease diagnosis
• Initially, the company focused solely on oncology patients, but it soon recognized the immense potential of expanding into other diseases
• They’ve built the world’s largest library of clinical and molecular data, and now every major pharmaceutical company wants to collaborate with them
• The key advantage lies in the comprehensiveness of their datasets and AI tools, which enable deeper insights and more actionable results
• More than 50% of oncologists in the U.S. are using $TEM, creating a strong network effect
• The post-IPO lockup period recently expired, which is why the stock is down ~50% in the last month or so (potential opportunity)
• The recently announced acquisition of Ambry Genetics will accelerate its path to profitability, with the combination of both businesses already being EBITDA and cash flow positive (according to $TEM's CEO in the last earnings call) — this should be a strong catalyst
• As $NVDA's CEO said, I believe the next revolution brought by AI will be in biotech/healthcare, so I'm expecting this sector to get hotter in the foreseeable future
• In 2024, $TEM's Data Licensing revenue had a NRR of ~140%
• 19 of the 20 largest public pharmaceutical companies in the world are collaborating with $TEM
• The AI healthcare market is projected to grow from ~$21B in 2024 to close to $150B in 2029, a CAGR of over 48% — $TEM is in a unique position to benefit from this
• Both Google and Novo Nordisk are shareholders of the company 2) $ELIX.L

The Founder & CEO, Stephen Newton, owns 24.1% of the company.

• Elixirr provides tailored consulting services across industries, specializing in innovation, strategy, and digital transformation (including AI and data-related services)
• It consistently delivers double-digit revenue growth with very solid margins (H1 29% Adj. EBITDA and 13% FCF)
• Impressive selection of clients, including Bank of America, LVMH, Tesla, Bloomberg, Diageo, and many others
• Elixirr has been named on the World’s Best Management Consulting Firms 2024 list by Forbes
• It has a solid cash balance with literally no debt
• Elixirr’s M&A team screened a further 700+ targets in H1 2024, with several potential acquisition opportunities currently in advanced stages
• Expected to grow revenue by >25% this year
• A valid risk to point out is the company’s customer concentration, with ~49% of revenue coming from the top 10 customers

I have to admit, this company only recently caught my attention through a screener, so I still need to conduct more research on it.

Nancy Pelosi just bought $50k-$100k in call options for $TEM.

It’s unusual for her to invest in small-cap stocks, so now everyone is wondering what’s so special about it...

Luckily, I was already preparing a thread about the company.

Here's an extensive summary of $TEM's investment thesis: 👇🏻🧵 1. Introduction to $TEM

Tempus AI, or $TEM, is a cutting-edge precision medicine company founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky. The inspiration for Tempus arose from Lefkofsky’s personal life — his wife’s battle with breast cancer revealed how limited the role of technology was in shaping her care. Determined to change this, Lefkofsky set out to integrate advanced technology into healthcare, addressing a critical gap in the industry.

At its core, $TEM leverages AI to analyze vast amounts of clinical, imaging and molecular data. Its goal is ambitious yet clear: to revolutionize healthcare by enabling personalized treatment decisions, advancing drug discovery, and facilitating earlier and more accurate disease diagnoses.

$TEM initially focused only on oncology, enabling doctors to deliver tailored treatments for cancer patients. This “intelligent diagnostics” model proved so effective that the company expanded its efforts into other critical areas, such as neuropsychology and cardiology.

Today, $TEM's technology empowers thousands of physicians and life science companies, making a tangible difference in patients' lives.

If someone told me that the stock market was going to close for 10 years, here are 10 stocks I would comfortably own: 🧵👇🏻

1) $ASML

Semiconductors are the backbone of modern technology, and $ASML sits at the very heart of this critical industry.

With its monopoly on cutting-edge EUV lithography systems, $ASML enables the production of the most advanced chips that power AI, 5G, IoT, and beyond.

Its high barriers to entry and indispensable role in the semiconductor supply chain make it a company that isn’t going anywhere for the next decade. 2) $MELI

In Latin America’s booming digital economy, $MELI stands as the unrivaled leader in e-commerce and fintech. Its powerful network effects, innovative payment system Mercado Pago, and robust logistics infrastructure make it an indispensable part of the region’s economic transformation.

Beyond that, Mercado Ads — its rapidly growing advertising platform — enables brands to connect with millions of consumers while driving high-margin revenue growth.

With a scalable ecosystem and diversified growth engines, $MELI is poised to dominate for the next decade.

I haven’t been this excited about a stock in a long time.

$NBIS is the most undervalued AI infrastructure company in the entire market, and I believe it will soon be recognized.

Here’s a detailed thread explaining the investment thesis: 🧵👇🏻 1. The AI revolution is upon us, reshaping industries at an extraordinary pace. As businesses embrace AI-driven solutions, the infrastructure required to sustain this transformation is emerging as a pivotal challenge.

Positioned at the forefront of the AI infrastructure market, $NBIS aims to address one of the most pressing bottlenecks in the industry.

The demand for AI infrastructure is not merely growing — it’s skyrocketing. The shift to AI requires a new generation of data centers and compute solutions, purpose-built to meet the unique demands of these technologies. $NBIS is rising to this challenge, crafting advanced infrastructure designed from the ground up to optimize AI performance.

With a vision to scale operations to hundreds of megawatts of AI compute capacity, $NBIS seeks to empower the global AI ecosystem by delivering innovative, high-performance solutions tailored for the future.

I've covered $RKLB's investment thesis in detail across multiple threads, but today, I’m breaking it down in a concise and straightforward way.

Here’s everything you need to know about $RKLB's massive potential — in under 10 minutes: 🧵👇🏻 1. Today’s space industry might be comparable to the early days of the internet. It's at a pivotal moment in its evolution, with major developments happening globally each week.

The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8T by 2035, up from $630B in 2023.

These advancements will help tackle some of the world's biggest challenges, such as climate change, disaster response, global communication gaps, agricultural efficiency, and more.

Companies like $RKLB are at the forefront, offering essential launch services and developing new technologies that promise to advance both space exploration and commercialization.

Two days ago, I found a $2B company growing revenue by 125%+ in 2024 and 100%+ in 2025, with EBITDA margins of 45% (unadjusted) and trading at 10x 2025 EBITDA.

Here's a thread explaining everything I've learned about the company so far and why it might be an opportunity: 👇🏻🧵 1. Cadeler $CDLR is a pure-play company in the offshore wind farms industry.

They don’t build turbines or manufacture components — instead, they specialize in transportation and installation (T&I) services.

Think of them as the essential backbone of offshore wind farm construction, maintenance, and decommissioning. They own and operate a fleet of vessels specifically designed for these services.

How they make money:

1️⃣ Time Charter Services & T&I Contracts

When a company wants to build an offshore wind farm, it can simply call $CDLR for their services. Revenue is recognized over time, using either fixed day rates, milestone-based payments, or a blend of both.

2️⃣ Other Revenue

This includes fees from early contract terminations and other service-related extras. It’s a much smaller portion of the company’s total revenue.

Regions:

Europe is the global leader in offshore wind farms, making it the primary source of $CDLR's revenue. However, the company is rapidly expanding its footprint in Asia and the U.S. These regions are still far behind Europe, particularly the U.S., in offshore wind development.

$CDLR is positioning itself as a key enabler in the renewable energy transition.

Let’s understand why this sector is so important 👇🏻

From micro, to small, mid, large and mega caps — Here are 25 stocks I'm watching for 2025, and WHY: 👇🏻🧵

1. $MELI

$MELI is IMO a no-brainer company to buy and hold for the next decades.

• Leading e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America, offering a wide range of services from online shopping to digital payments, logistics, and advertising solutions
• Benefits from a strong network effect, with increasing consumer participation driving more merchants and vice versa, solidifying its dominant position in the region
• Its robust logistics infrastructure and payments ecosystem (Mercado Pago) enhance customer experience, increase transaction volume, and reduce friction in the buying process
• Mercado Ads, the company's advertising platform, is growing very rapidly, allowing brands to reach millions of consumers across $MELI's marketplace and boosting the company’s high-margin revenue streams
• $MELI's leadership in a rapidly evolving digital market, coupled with its scalability, gives it a competitive edge and positions it for continued expansion and profitability
• An important potential catalyst is the rebound of the Argentine economy, which has finally emerged from a severe recession

To be honest, there are very few companies in the world that have executed as well as $MELI over the past decade. 2. $ASML

$ASML is one of the most important tech companies in the world, yet many people fail to recognize its crucial role in the digital revolution.

• It's the undisputed leader in lithography systems, critical for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductor chips in the world.
• Its cutting-edge EUV technology is a monopoly, with no viable competitors in producing chips at the smallest nodes
• The global semiconductor megatrend ensures long-term growth, as industries like AI, 5G, and IoT increasingly rely on advanced chips
• With high barriers to entry and continued innovation, $ASML has cemented its position as an indispensable player in the semiconductor supply chain

When you buy $ASML, you're investing in a monopoly within one of the most crucial technological sectors of modern life.

Mega thread with 15 founder-led companies I believe will perform exceptionally well over the next 5 years: 👇🏻🧵

1) $HIMS

Yes, everyone talks about Hims & Hers now. But I'm an early investor who bought shares in the low single digits, so my investment is definitely not driven by hype.

Here's a summary of my investment thesis:

• Cash-pay model that bypasses the need for insurance
• Provides high-quality, personalized, and affordable healthcare treatments (involved in the whole process)
• Positioned to benefit from many secular trends in the huge telehealth market
• Optionality to launch new categories and easily expand into new markets (several potential catalysts)
• Customer-centric approach that delivers a better experience than its peers
• Innovation stack combined with remarkable execution positions it for continued success
• Many years of customer data make some of its competitive advantages harder to replicate, particularly the personalization of dosages to improve outcomes and reduce side effects
• 2M+ subscribers growing 40%+ YoY
• Percentage of personalized subscribers increasing at an incredibly fast rate
• Improving retention rates, a critical factor in this sector
• Highly efficient distribution network, with thousands of affiliated pharmacies
• Investing in infrastructure to verticalize its supply chain
• Capex-light business model with impressive margins (75%+ gross margins, 15%+ FCF)
• Consistently surpassed analysts' estimates since inception
• Growing revenues by 65%+ this year, and likely to compound >20%/year over the next 5 years, with further operating leverage expected
• Trading at ~20x my 2025 FCF estimates
• No debt and an increasing cash pile, even while executing buybacks and reinvesting in growth and optimization
• Founder & CEO is the largest shareholder of the company 2) $ADYEN

• $ADYEN is a global payment platform known for its seamless and unified payments solutions, catering to leading merchants in developed regions
• The company excels in offering a fully integrated platform that handles online, in-store, and mobile payments, reducing complexity for businesses and improving user experiences
• $ADYEN benefits from a strong position in enterprise payments, where its customizability, reliability, and global reach set it apart from competitors
• Its unique direct-to-bank approach bypasses traditional intermediaries, lowering costs for merchants while maintaining industry-leading margins
• The company is expanding into financial services, including embedded banking and issuing solutions, which represent additional high-margin revenue streams
• With a scalable platform and strong secular tailwinds in digital payments, $ADYEN is well-positioned for long-term growth as cashless transactions become the global standard

10 stocks that I believe will outperform in 2025, with their catalysts explained: 👇🏻🧵

1) $RKLB

• The development of the space industry is accelerating every month, with major advancements happening globally and the Trump administration serving as a catalyst for U.S. operators
• By mid-2025, $RKLB is expected to finally conduct its first test launch of the Neutron rocket
• Neutron will not only break SpaceX's monopoly on medium-sized launches but will also complete $RKLB's end-to-end space ecosystem
• Even though the gap between the two best space companies in the world is clearly closing, $RKLB is still valued at less than 5% of SpaceX's most recent valuation
• $RKLB is also set to play a significant role in NASA's Mars Sample Return program
• The Space Force recently released requests for proposals for the next round of NSSL missions, and $RKLB intends to compete for a share of up to $5.6B in national security launches

And more. 2) $DCTH

• $DCTH is scaling up U.S. sales of its FDA-approved HEPZATO KIT for metastatic uveal melanoma, with momentum building since its 2023 commercial launch
• PHP therapy's potential to treat additional solid tumors could expand the company’s addressable market significantly in the coming years (we'll probably know more about this in 2025)
• Analysts expect sales to grow by ~112% YoY in 2025, but based on the CEO's optimism, I expect the company to beat these estimates
• The company is nearing FCF breakeven, and this inflection point will likely act as a catalyst for a potential valuation uplift

8 stocks that will at least triple in the next 10 years, with their investment thesis summarized: 👇🏻🧵

1) $GRAB

• Leader in Southeast Asia's Mobility and Deliveries markets (drove $UBER out of the region a few years ago)
• Southeast Asia's demographics and early stages of digitalization position $GRAB for significant user and revenue expansion
• Its SuperApp model integrates Mobility, Deliveries, and Financial Services, leveraging user data to drive synergies and customer retention (flywheel effect)
• $GRAB's financial services segment capitalizes on Southeast Asia's underbanked population with innovative digital banking, payments, and lending solutions
• Gradually improving margins, with further operating leverage expected as the business scales its higher-margin segments 2) $HIMS

• Cash-pay model that bypasses the need for insurance
• Provides high-quality, personalized, and affordable healthcare treatments (involved in the whole process)
• Positioned to benefit from many secular trends in the huge telehealth market
• Optionality to launch new categories and easily expand into new markets (several potential catalysts)
• Customer-centric approach that delivers a better experience than its peers
• Innovation stack combined with remarkable execution positions it for continued success
• Many years of customer data make some of its competitive advantages harder to replicate, particularly the personalization of dosages to improve outcomes and reduce side effects
• 2M+ subscribers growing 40%+ YoY
• Percentage of personalized subscribers increasing at an incredibly fast rate
• Improving retention rates, a critical factor in this sector
• Highly efficient distribution network, with thousands of affiliated pharmacies
• Investing in infrastructure to verticalize its supply chain
• Capex-light business model with impressive margins (75%+ gross margins, 15%+ FCF)
• Consistently surpassed analysts' estimates since inception
• Growing revenues by 65%+ this year, and likely to compound >20%/year over the next 5 years, with further operating leverage expected
• Trading at ~20x my 2025 FCF estimates
• No debt and an increasing cash pile, even while executing buybacks and reinvesting in growth and optimization
• Founder & CEO is the largest shareholder of the company