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Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 26

Pending home sales in October 2025 came in -1.2% below last year, and -27% below the long-term average.

Today's contract signings are at the lowest level in 30+ years - even worse than the GFC - and showing no noticeable signs of improvement (even after 6 Fed rate cuts and a big spike in inventory)

Suggesting there's major structural inertia in housing right now. The market is unaffordable, overpriced, and cheaper to rent - and as a result homebuyers are fundamentally disinterested.

On top of that - many households are now delaying family formation and electing not to have kids, which further reduces the urgency to buy.

Sellers who are delisting their houses right now, in hopes of an improved market in 2026, could be making a big mistake.

Access Reventure's Price Forecast for your city and ZIP at reventure.app.

1) I can't stress enough how crazy it is that NAR's Pending Sales figures just came in -1.2% below last year.

Remember - last year at this time, we only had one double rate cut.

Since then, we've had another 4 quarter point rate cuts

And demand went down!

2) On top of that, inventory has gone up over 15% since last year, and we now have the most homes for sale since pre-pandemic in South/West.

Plus prices dropping in half the U.S.

And demand is still going down.

Read 15 tweets

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 23

The U.S. Housing Market is about to get hit by a big demographic shift.

By 2032, there will be more deaths than births in the U.S.

This crossover point will be the continuation of a long-term trend over the last four decades, and ultimately will have the following impacts:

a) structurally lower homebuyer demand, as declining births and family formation lowers the need and urgency for young people to buy houses

b) more inventory, as incrementally more deaths and the aging out of the Baby Boomer generation increases listings (Freddie Mac estimates 9 million homes by 2035).

This will likely have a disinflationary and/or deflationary impact on home prices over the long-term.

Reventure just added Birth/Death Ratio data for every county in the U.S., going back 30 years, under 'Demographic Data'. Sign up to see the demographic trends in your area at reventure.app.

1) Many participants in the housing market are ignoring this issue, as if it does not provide a positive outlook for home prices, and it's also still another 6-7 years off.

However, serious homebuyers and investors should dig in and understand how the demographic decline will impact their area.

2) You can see there is already a dramatic divergence in Births and Deaths by state.

An area like California still has strong organic growth (1.38x, meaning 38% more births than deaths in 2024).

However, an area like Florida is already in organic contraction (0.96x Birth/Death, meaning 4% fewer births).

Read 10 tweets

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 17

The U.S. housing shortage is over.

Over the last four years, housing inventory has doubled from its pandemic lows. And is now only 9% lower than the same month in 2019.

This is great news for buyers, and increases the likelihood of declining prices.

However - there's big bifurcation by region.

In South and West, listings are up 5-10%. 📈
In Northeast/Midwest, listings are down 30-40%.📉

Meaning there are essentially two different housing markets operating in the U.S. right now.

To see how your area is performing, type in your ZIP and search the data at reventure.app

1) This bifurcated market has taken many in the housing industry by surprise, as most analysts expected the boomtown Southern states to continue appreciating.

But the exact opposite has happened over the last 3 years.

Inventory in the South - and West - has exploded.

To the point that these areas are now in a inventory surplus. While the Northeast/Midwest Rust Belt remains in a persistent shortage.

2) The Northeast is still down 45% on inventory and active listings from its 2019 levels, indicative of a market where bidding wars and notable price appreciation is still taking place.

The Midwest is down 33% on inventory as well, and there are real pockets of "heat" in this market as well.

Read 8 tweets

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 10

The weakness in the rental market right now is alarming.

Suggests there's much more deflationary pressure in housing/economy than people understand.

And that 2026 will be a year where CPI drops.

Note: over 33% of the inflation calculation is based on rental cost estimates.

1) Here's the chart from the CoStar article. -0.31 rent growth in October.

Normally there's a seasonal slowdown around this point.

However, this was the biggest in over 15 years.

2) Apartment rent growth is deflating due to an overhang of supply mixed with a substantial slowdown in demand in the second half of 2025.

A combination of reduced immigration, a weak job market for college grads, and increased student debt defaults is causing more young people to live with friends and family, rather than get their own apartment.

Read 13 tweets

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 5

U.S. home value growth is entering recessionary territory in late 2025.

With Zillow's value index growing by only 0.1% over the last 12 months.

The previous times we've seen home value growth this low have mostly been associated with economic recessions. (like 2008, 1991, 1982, 1973).

This confirms the comments made earlier this week by Scott Bessent, that the housing market is in fact in a recession.

The question is: will national home values finally dip negative in 2026, and which cities will be the best places to buy next year?

To find out, go to reventure.app and sign up for premium to see our 12-month forecast for your ZIP code.

1) While many are frustrated that home prices are still near all-time highs, the reality is that a housing market trending towards 0% nominal home price growth is one already well into a recession, given how abnormally low this appreciation is.

In the last 55 years, it has only happened 5 times. 4 were recessions. And one was the mortgage rate shock in 2022.

2) We'll have to see if the broader economy follows suit. But even if it doesn't, it's reasonable to expect home values to continue dropping in many parts of the country in 2026 given high inventory, low demand, and sellers finally starting to give in.

Read 11 tweets

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

Nov 4

110 years of Home Price Growth v Rent Growth.

There's four distinct periods where home price growth greatly exceeded rent growth:

1943-1947: World War 2 boom
1974-1979: Inflation-era boom
1998-2005: Mortgage bubble boom
2016-2022: ZIRP / Pandemic boom

Amazingly - almost all of America's inflation-adjusted home price growth in the last century comes from these 4 periods.

From 1916 to 1970, if you exclude WW2, home price and rent growth moved in near lockstep with each other.

Since 1970 - home price growth and rent growth have decoupled, with home prices becoming much more volatile.

However, since 1970, home price growth tends to reverts back to rent growth. Suggesting that we will see the rental market outperform the for-sale housing market in coming years.

To access housing market data like this for your city, go to reventure.app and type in your ZIP code.

1) The housing market is actually fairly simple when you adopt a longer term outlook:

It's a function of inflation (measured by rent growth), demographics, and government intervention.

2) Rent growth/inflation is the main input that controls most of long-term home price growth.

It reflects the cost of occupying real estate, and tends to be most heavily tied to if there is a true surplus or shortage of housing.

If home prices go up more than rent growth, it's unlikely to persist, and vice versa.

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