Thread by @PaulGoodmanCH

Since the Conservative leadership election is now under way, it may be worth a thread on the Party’s future - recognising that the odds are against its return to government any time soon. So here goes..

2) There are two key questions. WHAT should the Conservatives try to do. And HOW should they do it? Let’s start with the first question...

3) Rightly or wrongly, I make three assumptions at the start. First, that the Conservatives won’t be able to do much at all without effective leadership...

4) Second, that if they’re to be authentic, which matters, the Conservatives will hold the same smaller state/bigger society worldview that they’ve had for at least the last 80 years or so.

5) And third, that the bare bones of a successful electoral appeal are likely to be economic competence, value for money in the NHS, and lower immigration (which will take time).

6) However, bare bones won’t be enough. The present model in all the main parties of risk-minimal manifestos aimed at key voters in target seats may sometimes work in elections. But it’s not making Britain a better country.

7) (Furthermore, big election winners like Thatcher and Blair didn’t narrow their appeal to key voters in target seats: they made a big pitch to as many voters as possible.)

8) In any event, Britain can only become if it faces up to the big challenges that political parties too often find it convenient to duck. Here are four.

9) First, defence and security. Whatever happens in America’s election, its focus is shifting to the Pacific and away from Europe. This has massive implications for us and our neighbours.

10) Second, demographics and public services. How will we pay for better security as our population ages and birthrates don’t keep up (if, that is, we don’t simply rely on immigration to plug the gap?)

11) Third, the economy and growth. In the context of a tilt towards defence and security, how can investment, labour mobility and productivity be raised across the whole country, not just the Greater South East?

12) Fourth, democracy and culture. How accountable is our system? If not enough, is that why there’s a sense among voters that “nothing works”? Either way, how could a shift to more effective security and defence be made effectively?

13) Most of Britain’s other problems are contained within these four in some way. My sense is that voters know these big challenges are out there, and want politicians to face up to them…while being nervous about the consequences.

14) Squaring that circle is the key to true political success. Thinking seriously about ways of squaring it would at least be a start. Next, HOW should the Conservatives do whatever they decide to do.

15) First, a recent story: one in six Conservative voters are likely to die before the next election. tinyurl.com/mv48fxxb

16) And the party’s members are roughly the same age profile as its voters (though they seem to me to be younger in London, which makes up perhaps a fifth of membership overall.)

17) Membership isn’t everything, of course. The Conservatives need wider support in civil society - among business, charities, students, trade unionists, faith communities, the third sector, etc.

18) So I take it as a given that the Conservatives will need to build alliances beyond their membership - of which the most recent success, back in the Cameron years, was the development of the Free Schools Network.

19) Not so long ago, CCHQ was engaged with at least some of these elements in civil society. It has shrunk since to being a target seats operation - in other words, there’s no investment in the medium-term rather than the short-term.

20) Since the leader’s interests are necessarily short-term, he’s no stake in changing this model, which is shrinking the Conservatives’ support base further,

21) The only sure way of investing in the medium-term is to give the Board of the Party a real incentive to do so…

22) …Which would mean allowing the Party members to elect the Board’s Chairman directly along with a majority of Board members.

23) Candidates for the Board would then be able to stand on a platform of investing for the medium term and reviving CCHQ’s capacities.

24) This radical approach has potential risks - but the alternative is the present model, which isn’t delivering and won’t deliver.

25) At the same time, more power over candidate selections should be returned to local Associations...

26) …Because the present system is over-centralised. For example, Basildon and Billericay selected from a shortlist of one.

27) The new leader and the Party Chairman should also seek to establish a modern equivalent of Swinton College, formerly the Party’s training establishment.

28) Last in this section, the Party needs to draw on the parts of the country where it still exercises political power - namely, in local government.

29) It needs a new means of involving Conservative council leaders in decision-making - for example, by putting @BenHouchen and @CllrKBentley (Leader of @LGACons) in the Shadow Cabinet.