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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jul 25 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
While this is true about Ex-Soviet arms stockpiles versus new production.⬇️

The thing to watch like a hawk is Russian railway operations.

Russian railway watch🧵
1/
The Russian railways living on Cold War rolling stock (40%) & infrastructure, now ended contracting out to Europe, and now has less advanced Chinese rail contractors, means Russia is on right side of the curve below.

2/
Russian railway car trucks (illustrative photo⬇️) rely upon Western SKF & Amsted cassette bearings that have not been supplied since May 2022 and the Russian co-production facilities were shut down from a lack of proprietary software...

3/
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...both firms took with them/erased when they abandoned those plants.

In Sep. 2022 20% of Russian rail car rolling stock was sidelined due to a lack of Western bearings, and we are now in late July 2024.

4/
The idea that the Russian economy is growing when

1. 40% of Russian railway rolling stock is down,

2. The Trans-Siberian railway represents 43% of total Russian transportation and


5/
3. The Trans Siberian Railway represents the vast majority of east-west movement is...flawed.

Deeply, deeply flawed.

Watch Russian trains for when the bill for those "Russia Strong™️" flaws comes due.

(h/t @solfeggio777⬇️)
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 23
It has been clear for about 18 months that the Ukrainian military has put in the time to master and digest the materials in the US Strategic Bombing Surveys for lessons on how to take down an industrial economy.

The latest rail ferry strike is just the latest example.
USSBS🧵
1/

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The USSBS made a big fat hairy deal about Japanese railway ferry's moving coal from Hokkaido to Honshu.

Ukraine learned that lesson for Crimea⬇️

2/
The top level summary USSBS reports are filled with political agenda.

The lower level reports feeding into those summaries have a lot of really useful economic data that is still applicable today.

Those reports aren't used anywhere near enough by 21st century analysts.

3/
German aircraft factory shop floor
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Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
This was the "Biden vs Trump Debate moment" for USSS Director Cheatle.

In a situation as "1st shot at Fort Sumter" volatile as this, Cheatle needed to "Come to Jesus," be 100% truthful & offer a full mea culpa admitting to her follies.

She didn't.

1/
 Lest the heavens fall🧵
Worse, both she and her superior DHS Secretary Mayorkas were very publicly caught out as lying on the most important facts regarding the lack of protection for former President Trump.

2/
I am still in the "Incompetence leading to culpable negligence" camp on the Trump rally shooting.

Culpable negligence that created an opportunity for a nutjob hearing Ross Perot in his tooth fillings to take a shot.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
It appears that @JDVance1 public refusal to debate V.P. Harris on the grounds of:

"We don't know who the Democratic Party Presidential nominee will be,"

... is looking very common sense, which is a very uncommon thing to say about any US Senator.🤨🤔

Jacksonian populism🧵
1/
While I utterly despise @JDVance1 public statements on Ukraine...

...the collapse of the @JoeBiden candidacy reinforces his "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate brand at the expense of Democratic Party's negative campaigning with non-Democrats, and the working class generally.

2/ Image
And @JDVance1 statements that the USA doesn't make the munitions or have a ship building infrastructure for a multi-front war...

Nor are there any plans to have such a mobilization supporting that logistical capability

...have the virtue of being factually correct.

3/
Read 24 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 21
This is exactly the what the losing side in a war does when undergoing Lanchester Square collapse.⬇️

Just like the way Japanese & German air forces in WW2 collapsed from a lack of skilled replacement pilots and mechanics.

1/
The rate of increase of Russian ground force casualties tracks a collapse of skills from the attrition of competent Russian officers without a Russian training establishment capable of replacing them.

The "Next 100k" of Russian casualties always happens faster.

2/ Image
It also tracks the collapse of the Russian army motor transport that is preventing both medical system casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and the resupply of forward positions with food, water and medical supplies.

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Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 20
I've really happy with the AFU's increasingly effective drone counter-air efforts and the drone swarm strike Millerovo air base near Rostov-on-Don underlines this improvement.

1/
 Lanchester Smiles🧵

en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…
Image
The AFU are learning, refining their tactics, weaponeering, and targeting.

This Millerovo air base strike appears to have involved 2 dozen or more OWA Drones/propeller cruise missiles.

That is about the right number one drone per desired mean point of impact (DMPI).

2/
That is, one drone impact point per Su-34 parking spot and one per fuel tank.

These AFU improvements are something the "Escalation Management™️" and "Russian Strong™️" crowds refuse to see.

(H/T @PStyle0ne1)
3/ Image
Read 23 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 20
Wake me up when Israel systematically destroys electric power generating capability and drops sea mines at the ports in Houthi controlled Yemen.

That is when I'll know the Israeli coalition government is serious in addressing the Houthi threat.

ISO fuel tank blindness🧵
1/
ISO container fuel tanks can be shipped in via Iran and fix this damage in weeks.

2/ Image
The ability to build fuel storage like lego bricks has been around since 1969, when the UK firm Andrews of Aintree Ltd fielded the concept through international transportation regulations.

3/3
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank_cont…



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Read 4 tweets

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