Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 26, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) handicaps energy developers and subjects them to a stifling bureaucratic process that is preventing them from building the energy infrastructure America needs to get and stay ahead of its geopolitical rivals.

🧵 Image
NEPA means review.

If you want to build something, the environmental impact has to be assessed. You need an environmental impact statement, and it can take a long time to deal with those.

So long, in fact, that many projects just shut down. Image
These projects are not one-offs either.

In fact, most solar and pipeline projects get hit by environmental impact statements, and large portions of them are canceled after putting up with the delays. Image
Often when we talk about the government impeding progress, we talk about invisible graveyards.

For example, in the 1980s, it was alleged that the FDA created an invisible graveyard of gay men who couldn't get sufficient medical treatment for HIV as a result of agency decisions.
With NEPA, it's harder to see what the regulations cause us to miss out on because the graves aren't usually so literal.

But we have something very close: wildfires.

I'm sure some of you will remember when the sky over San Francisco turned an eerie red. Image
Destructive wildfires are unfortunately common in the U.S., but they don't have to be

Sadly, when the Forest Service applies to treat more forest to prevent wildfires, they have to undergo NEPA review, delaying their ability to do their jobs.

Result? Flammable, overgrown woods. Image
The irony of the "National Environmental Policy Act" is that it is killing the environment.

Entrepreneurs and the government alike want to do things to make the U.S. a greener, safer, and less polluted place, but NEPA has made that process arduous and often impossible.
Like the Jones Act, NEPA must be fixed.

All of this comes from @AidanRMackenzie's new piece on NEPA and the need for reform.

Go give the piece a read: ifp.org/how-nepa-will-…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Dec 2
Society is cognitively stratified:

Smart people tend to earn higher educations and higher incomes, and to work in more prestigious occupations.

This holds for people from excellent family backgrounds (Utopian Sample) and comparing siblings from the same families! Image
This is true, meaningful, and the causal relationship runs strongly from IQ to SES, with little independent influence of SES. Just look at how similar the overall result and the within-family results are!

But also look at fertility in this table: quite the reverse! Image
Source: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

And to learn more about this general phenomenon, see: cremieux.xyz/p/intelligence… (I've added this citation to this article!)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25
After this article came out, several people responded, alleging that a cultural model made more sense.

Clark has a point-by-point response🧵

Let's start with the first thing: parent-child and sibling correlations in status measures are identical—hard to explain culturally! Image
The reason this is hard to explain has to do with the fact that kids objectively have more similar environments to one another than to their parents.

In fact, for a cultural theory to recapitulate regression to the mean across generations, these things would need to differ! Image
Another fact that speaks against a cultural explanation is that the length of contact between fathers and sons doesn't matter for how correlated they are in status.

We can see this by leveraging the ages parents die at relative to said sons. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24
The idea:

The internet gives everyone access to unlimited information, learning tools, and the new digital economy, so One Laptop Per Child should have major benefits.

The reality:

Another study just failed to find effects on academic performance. Image
This is one of those findings that's so much more damning than it at first appears.

The reason being, laptop access genuinely provides people with more information than was available to any kid at any previous generation in history.

If access was the issue, this resolves it. Image
And yet, nothing happens

This implementation of the program was more limited than other ones that we've already seen evaluations for though. The laptops were not Windows-based and didn't have internet, so no games, but non-infinite info too

Still huge access improvement though
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22
What is the effect of having a parent get locked away on a kids' own risk of eventually committing crime?

As it turns out, basically nil.

Having a mother or a father locked away doesn't significantly increase risk, and indeed, may reduce it if it happens at an early age. Image
This is relative to no incarceration, so the result should be interpreted as... pretty shocking!

Similarly, we can look at the effects of longer versus shorter parental sentences.

There's seemingly little effect of the length of time parents are incarcerated for. Image
Compare those within-family estimates from above with these between-family results from the same study, period, cohort, etc.

Notice: the apparent 'effects' between families are significant stratified in the same way.

That's an important distinction! Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image
So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
We can be doubly certain about that last hint because diabetics tend to lose less weight than non-diabetics, and all of the observed benefit has so far been observed in diabetic cohorts, not non-diabetic ones (though those directionally show benefits).

Anyway, trials needed!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20
El Salvador is now a safe country

The reason why should teach us something about commitment

The government there has previously attempted crackdowns twice in the form of mano dura—hard hand—, but they failed because they didn't hit criminals hard enough

Then Bukele really didImage
In fact, previous attempts backfired compared to periods in which the government made truces with the gangs.

The government cracking down a little bit actually appeared to make gangs angrier!

You'd have been in your right to conclude 'tough on crime fails', but you'd be wrong.
You have to *actually* enforce the law or policy won't work. Same story with three-strike laws, or any other measure

Incidentally, when did the gang problems begin for El Salvador? When the U.S. exported gang members to it

This was bad for El Salvador:

Read 5 tweets

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