Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 26, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) handicaps energy developers and subjects them to a stifling bureaucratic process that is preventing them from building the energy infrastructure America needs to get and stay ahead of its geopolitical rivals.

🧵 Image
NEPA means review.

If you want to build something, the environmental impact has to be assessed. You need an environmental impact statement, and it can take a long time to deal with those.

So long, in fact, that many projects just shut down. Image
These projects are not one-offs either.

In fact, most solar and pipeline projects get hit by environmental impact statements, and large portions of them are canceled after putting up with the delays. Image
Often when we talk about the government impeding progress, we talk about invisible graveyards.

For example, in the 1980s, it was alleged that the FDA created an invisible graveyard of gay men who couldn't get sufficient medical treatment for HIV as a result of agency decisions.
With NEPA, it's harder to see what the regulations cause us to miss out on because the graves aren't usually so literal.

But we have something very close: wildfires.

I'm sure some of you will remember when the sky over San Francisco turned an eerie red. Image
Destructive wildfires are unfortunately common in the U.S., but they don't have to be

Sadly, when the Forest Service applies to treat more forest to prevent wildfires, they have to undergo NEPA review, delaying their ability to do their jobs.

Result? Flammable, overgrown woods. Image
The irony of the "National Environmental Policy Act" is that it is killing the environment.

Entrepreneurs and the government alike want to do things to make the U.S. a greener, safer, and less polluted place, but NEPA has made that process arduous and often impossible.
Like the Jones Act, NEPA must be fixed.

All of this comes from @AidanRMackenzie's new piece on NEPA and the need for reform.

Go give the piece a read: ifp.org/how-nepa-will-…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Apr 21
British fertility abruptly fell after one important court case: the Bradlaugh-Besant trial🧵

You can see its impact very visibly on this chart: Image
The trial involved Annie Besant (left) and Charles Bradlaugh (right).

These two were atheists—a scandalous position at the time!—and they wanted to promote free-thinking about practically everything that upset the puritanical society of their time. Image
They were on trial because they tried to sell a book entitled Fruits of Philosophy.

This was an American guide to tons of different aspects of family planning, and included birth control methods, some of which worked, others which did not.Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 17
One of the really interesting studies on the psychiatric effects of maltreatment is Danese and Widom's from Nat. Hum. Behavior a few years ago.

They found that only subjective (S), rather than objective (O) maltreatment predicted actually having a mental disorder.Image
Phrased differently, if people subjectively believed they were abused, that predicted poor mental health, but objectively recorded maltreatment only predicted it if there was also a subjective report.

Some people might 'simply' be more resilient than others.
I think this finding makes sense.

Consider the level of agreement between prospective (P-R) and retrospective (R-P) reports of childhood maltreatment.

A slim majority of people recorded being mistreated later report that they were mistreated when asked to recall. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 15
Nature finally published it!

The Reich Lab article on genetic selection in Europe over the last 10,000 years is finally online, and it includes such interesting results as:

- Intelligence has increased
- People got lighter
- Mental disorders became less common

And more!Image
They've added some interesting simulation results that show that these changes are unlikely to have happened without directional selection, under a variety of different model assumptions. Image
They also showed that, despite pigmentation being oligogenic, selection on it was polygenic.

"[S]election for pigmentation had an equal impact on all variants in proportion to effect size." Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 10
I still think this is one of the most important recent papers on AI in the job market🧵

The website Freelancer added an option to generate cover letters with AI, and suddenly the quality associated with cover letters stopped predicting the odds of people getting hired!Image
LLMs do a few things to cover letters.

Firstly, they increase the quality, as measured by how well tailored they are to a given job listing. Image
Second, they make job applications in expensive, so people start spending less time shooting off applications.

More, rapidly-produced job applications becomes the norm. Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 6
The authors of this work now have a newer study with a nine-times larger sample!🧵

The overall result is that the rich are:

- More risk-tolerant, open to experiences, extraverted, and conscientious
- Less neurotic
- No more agreeable than normal, non-rich people Image
Now, we have a breakdown of different types of rich people!

Among those who could be classified, the majority of the rich (79%; >=€1m net worth) were self-made, with a smaller, 21% share whose wealth came primarily from inheritances. Image
How do inheritors and the self-made differ in personality?

They're both more risk-tolerant and less neurotic than the average, but the inheritor profile looks like a mixture between the overall rich and normal people, with more agreeableness, less openness, etc. Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 3
My latest article asks and answers the question:

When did being fat become a thing for poor people?🧵

We should start with the observation that, as countries get richer, they tend to get fatter. Image
This might seem contradictory to the whole thesis, but it's not.

Countries become obese with wealth because poorer people within them are able to get fatter as they become richer.

The ecological and individual relationships differ.

Look internationally: Image
Now, we have good data for much of the U.S., and it tends to agree with Swiss and Dutch data, in that the inversion of the relationship between obesity and social status was a post-WWII, mid-century thing.

It precedes the welfare state, and then it's fairly constant. Image
Read 8 tweets

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