Crémieux Profile picture
Jul 26, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) handicaps energy developers and subjects them to a stifling bureaucratic process that is preventing them from building the energy infrastructure America needs to get and stay ahead of its geopolitical rivals.

🧵 Image
NEPA means review.

If you want to build something, the environmental impact has to be assessed. You need an environmental impact statement, and it can take a long time to deal with those.

So long, in fact, that many projects just shut down. Image
These projects are not one-offs either.

In fact, most solar and pipeline projects get hit by environmental impact statements, and large portions of them are canceled after putting up with the delays. Image
Often when we talk about the government impeding progress, we talk about invisible graveyards.

For example, in the 1980s, it was alleged that the FDA created an invisible graveyard of gay men who couldn't get sufficient medical treatment for HIV as a result of agency decisions.
With NEPA, it's harder to see what the regulations cause us to miss out on because the graves aren't usually so literal.

But we have something very close: wildfires.

I'm sure some of you will remember when the sky over San Francisco turned an eerie red. Image
Destructive wildfires are unfortunately common in the U.S., but they don't have to be

Sadly, when the Forest Service applies to treat more forest to prevent wildfires, they have to undergo NEPA review, delaying their ability to do their jobs.

Result? Flammable, overgrown woods. Image
The irony of the "National Environmental Policy Act" is that it is killing the environment.

Entrepreneurs and the government alike want to do things to make the U.S. a greener, safer, and less polluted place, but NEPA has made that process arduous and often impossible.
Like the Jones Act, NEPA must be fixed.

All of this comes from @AidanRMackenzie's new piece on NEPA and the need for reform.

Go give the piece a read: ifp.org/how-nepa-will-…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Apr 4
Here's a fun question to start the thread🧵

What differentiates the countries in orange from the countries in blue?

Why did the orange countries plunge into ultra-low fertility, while the blue ones have maintained themselves better? Image
The countries in the first set are "Group 1 Nations". In the second set, they're "Group 2 Nations".

Notice anything about their growth rates? One thing is that they've all grown to similar enough levels.

Another is the acceleration of the pace of growth. Image
In Group 1, nations started off a bit richer, and they grew at a more stable pace.

In Group 2, nations started off poorer, but they caught up to Group 1 by growing faster in the latter half of the 20th century.

Their fertility rate trajectories followed suit. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 3
Timeline's feeling down. Thread of good news.

At every age, the incidence of dementia is down. As a society, people are no longer suffering dementia nearly as often! Image
The world over, child mortality is way down. It's unusual for parents to experience the death of a child these days, where even a century ago, it was the global norm. Image
Each year, novel gene therapies are approved.

The number of gene therapies in the pipeline is also rapidly increasing. There is tons of progress to be made here, and the main issue is regulatory.

We have lots of low-hanging fruit in curing disease! Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 3
Which is more impressive for China, its

GDP Per Capita, or its

Actual Individual Consumption Per Capita (AIC is a superior measure of how rich its people actually are. It's based on how much they really consume)

Answer is below.
Here's the GDP Per Capita data. Image
And here's the AIC data. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 3
There's a common type of misunderstanding that sounds like this:

"If taller people tend to be more educated, and women tend to be shorter than men, how do you explain women tending to be more educated?"

The issue has to do with intercepts. Consider this plot: Image
You can see that, among Whites, women tend to be shorter than men, and they tend to have lower earnings.

But at the same time, to similar degrees in both sexes, taller people tend to have higher earnings.

Perplexed? You shouldn't be.
The fact is that there's more to this that differentiates men and women than height, so the intercept for women is shifted down, even though the slopes of the height * income relationship are fairly comparable.

You could also ask the same thing about race.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 2
Debate about the value of essays in college admissions missed a key point:

Essays are biased, so should not be used.

Here's an example: High-income people know 'what to write' to look good to raters, so they outperform on essays relative to their other qualifications. Image
This shows up by race, too, and that's why admissions departments use essays to infer race for the express purpose of discriminating.

Write that you're Black; that you grew up as a poor immigrant; that you're gay or a cripple.

They love that!

The reason essays do not have a role to play in the admissions process is because they're biased. It's plain, it's simple, it doesn't need to be discussed any further.

And here's some good policy: Use tools that are not biased or lose public funding.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
A new meta-analysis and systematic review on the effects of social media abstinence interventions on mental health has been published.

First result: No effect on positive affect: Image
Second result: No effect on negative affect. Image
Third result: No effect on life satisfaction in general. Image
Read 6 tweets

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