Thread by @ArturRehi

The lack of manpower is taking its toll on the Ukrainian troops. Russia continues to press along the entire front line, and Ukraine is managing to hold its advance in the direction of the north of the Kharkiv region. In the Chasiv Yar area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are
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also holding the front line, but the situation remains difficult. The most difficult situation continues to develop in the Avdiivka direction in the Ocheretyne and Toretsk area. Frontelligence writes that these advancements resulted from a lack of coordination and poor
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command decisions, similar to those made by the Ukrainian command during the rotation in Ocheretyne in the spring of 2024. Interestingly, the command of the Ukrainian 41st Mechanized Brigade, which was rotated to Chasiv Yar before moving to the Toretsk area, bears the lion's
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share of the blame for the loss of the canal district in Chasiv Yar and the Toretsk - Niu York area. In both cases, the Russians were able to advance within their areas of responsibility. Some officers we spoke to even suggested that the Russians are tracking the rotation
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of the 41st Brigade to exploit vulnerabilities in their command and cooperation during rotations. A similar situation happened in Ocheretyne in April - May 2024. Then, during the rotation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia broke through the defense. Ukraine is a huge
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country. According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, the front line is currently 3,700 kilometers long. Active hostilities were conducted on 977 kilometers, that is, on territories that are twice the length of the border between Germany and France. This means that the
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Ukrainian troops are stretched out and the defense line is very thin, and if it crumbles, the Russians can go behind the positions and advance several kilometers at once. Syrsky acknowledged the significant advantage of the Russians in equipment and personnel. By the end
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of 2024, the Kremlin plans to increase the army to 620 thousand. Now it numbers 520 thousand, which is 5 times more than at the beginning of the invasion. The number of the Armed Forces in 2024 is approximately 350,000. Frontelligence writes that according to multiple
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sources, the 41st Mechanized Brigade brigade did not have a chance to replenish its losses after the Kupyansk direction and was subsequently sent to Chasiv Yar and then to the Toretsk area. While the brigade command can be blamed for mistakes, the underlying issues are much
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more fundamental. These include a lack of rest, shortages of personnel and equipment, and insufficient reserves to send to risky areas, leading to the redeployment of brigades from other parts of the frontline. Despite these challenges, not everything is negative for the
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Ukrainian army. Early in the spring of 2024, when the Russians were advancing towards Chasiv Yar, the situation for Ukrainian forces was quite dire. They faced a shortage of artillery shells, delays in Western aid, and a lack of personnel. But it’s not just Ukraine that
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has problems. Russia suffers from a shortage of personnel and equipment. Although it is not so noticeable in the direction of the main onslaught of the Russians in the Pokrovsk direction in the area of ​​Toretsk and Ocheretyne, the replenishment of the army is going with
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big problems. In Moscow, the one-time payment for signing a contract was raised to 2 million rubles and they began to use a new practice reminiscent of the multilevel marketing, only life is at stake. In general, in Russia they began to pay money if the signer of the
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contract can bring a friend into the army. All new contracts are indefinite. People sign them, thinking that the contract is for six months, but do not read the small print. However, again, we must not forget that the loss of a few kilometers of land and small settlements
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does not matter. The Ukrainian army is trying to preserve troops and retreat if holding a completely destroyed settlement no longer makes sense. Syrskyi said that they are not going to fight to the last soldier for the ruins.
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But Ukraine is tired, the people are tired. The world is tired of news from Ukraine. Fundraisings is slow. But despite the enormous difficulties, Ukraine is holding on and we must continue our support and increase our assistance.
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frontelligence.substack.com/p/summer-2024-…