Artur Rehi Profile picture
Jul 27, 2024 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Two years after explosions ripped through the Russian-controlled Olenivka prison, killing more than 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war, injuring dozens more, independent investigations into the attack have stalled or been abandoned. An unpublished internal UN analysis concludes
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Russia was behind the attack. All the men listed were from the Azov unit who became national heroes after holding out for months against an overwhelmingly larger Russian force in the city of Mariupol. The prisoners were told to be ready. No one knew why. On the morning
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of July 27, 2022, the group was rounded up and led to an industrial section of the colony, away from the other five POW barracks. They were taken to a cinder-block building with a tin-plate roof and 100 bunks, no mattresses and a hastily dug pit toilet, multiple survivors
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told The Associated Press. The prison director visited to tell them that their old barracks were under renovation, although plenty of other prisoners had remained. Ukrainians who have been since released said there was no renovation. That first day, the guards dug trenches
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for themselves. Ukraine’s Security Service told AP that their analysis confirmed the presence of the unusual new trenches. On July 28, the colony management ordered the guard post moved further away, and for the first time the barrack guards “wore bullet-proof vests and
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helmets which they had not done before and unlike other colony personnel who rarely wore them,” according to a section of the internal U.N. analysis later incorporated into public reports. On the night of July 28 around 10:30 p.m., Arsen Dmytryk completed his checks, cut the
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lights, climbed into the top bunk and fell asleep at once. An explosion woke him perhaps 45 minutes later, followed by the sound of a Grad missile launcher. But he’d heard that before and drifted back to sleep. According to the analysis, other Ukrainian prisoners were then
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sent to the bombed barracks and ordered to remove debris and the remaining bodies. Two hours later, that group was sent into a nearby hangar, and some saw men in camouflage bringing boxes of ammunition to the blast site and setting HIMARS fragments on a blue bench nearby.
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Russian officials soon arrived, accompanied by Russian journalists whose images of twisted, charred bunk beds, HIMARS fragments and bodies laid out in the sun spread across the world. The Ukrainians in the nearby hangar said after everyone was gone, the men in camouflage
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returned everything to the boxes and left. As the clock ticked down to a U.N. Security Council meeting later that day, Russia and Ukraine blamed each other. Russia opened an investigation and said Kyiv did it to silence soldiers from confessing to their “crimes” and used
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their recently acquired American-made HIMARS rockets. Ukraine denied the charge and said Russia was framing Ukraine to discredit the country before its allies. The international community didn’t know who to believe. That’s when the U.N. secretary general announced it would
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conduct its own investigation, but negotiations to access the site were long and ultimately fruitless. Guterres’ special mission was disbanded on Jan. 5, 2023, having never traveled to Ukraine. “The members of the mission were of the view that it would be indispensable for
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them to be able to access all the relevant sites, materials and victims in order to fulfil its task and establish the facts of the incident,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told AP. Without that, the mission “was not in a position to provide any conclusions.”
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More from @ArturRehi

Sep 9
The Russian army is facing a gasoline shortage in the occupied regions of Ukraine. About two weeks ago, a shortage of gasoline at gas stations began, and sales to private individuals were restricted. However, the Russian army in these areas often uses civilian gas stations,
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frequently even refueling at its own expense. The reason is constant Ukrainian strikes on logistics. When a fuel truck arrives at the rear, a rush and crowd form, which Ukrainian reconnaissance drones detect and coordinate strikes on. On top of this, there are frequent cases
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of fuel theft and resale on the black market. Resellers take advantage of the gasoline shortage and sell “under the table” for more than 200 rubles per liter, while the usual price at gas stations is 60–70 rubles per liter. The occupation authorities happily integrated into
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Sep 8
The economic crisis in Russia is worsening. The budget deficit already amounts to 5 trillion rubles for the first seven months of the year, or 3.4% of GDP. This figure is twice the planned value for the entire year, 1.7% of GDP. Today or tomorrow, data for August will be
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published, and the number will be even higher. The main reason is the decline in oil and gas revenues. For the second month in a row, revenues remain at a record minimum of about 500 billion rubles per month, while 1 trillion rubles are needed to cover planned expenditures.
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The problem for Russia is that they have nothing to cover this deficit. There is increasing talk about the need to lower the key interest rate to revive the economy. Proposals are being made to reduce it to 16%. However, lowering the rate never happens without consequences -
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Sep 4
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit has shown that a power capable of posing an economic challenge to the US and the EU has taken shape in the world, and it is directed from Beijing. Putin arrived in China for a four-day visit. Such a long trip by the Russian
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dictator is called, on the one hand, a triumph after his return from Alaska, where US President Trump solemnly welcomed him on the red carpet and did not impose sanctions. On the other hand, relations between Beijing and Moscow are not equal: China benefits from preventing
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rapprochement between Putin and Trump, but Xi also does not want Russia to grow stronger. The SCO is seen as China’s attempt to contain the US in the Indo-Pacific region and as Russia’s response to NATO expansion. However, experts acknowledge that this is not an alliance or
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Read 16 tweets
Sep 2
Europe once again demonstrates its toothlessness towards Russia. The incident with von der Leyen’s plane is a serious event, where the lives of everyone on board were put at risk. An excellent comment on this matter was written by Former Foreign Minister of Lithuania
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Gabrielius Landsbergis: "Deeply concerned to hear about the deeply concerning GPS interference that diverted @vonderleyen 's flight. Europe stands united in expression of deep concerns and must commit to the deployment of ever-deepening concerns moving forward." Expressing
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deep concern is the main tactic of the EU in times when decisive action is needed. I feel like a parrot repeating the same phrase – a tough response to Russia is needed. It understands only the language of force, and if this force is demonstrated, Russia will retreat. It is
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Sep 1
Russia’s budget deficit has surged to around ₽5 trillion (about $62.5 billion). That’s 130% of what was planned, and there are still four months left in the year. Another round of inflation is expected this autumn. The central bank’s decision to cut the key interest rate
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in June has triggered a new problem—a sharp increase in household debt. Russian consumers typically lack financial literacy, and in hard times they don’t cut back or save; instead, they live day to day, as if it’s their last, without thinking of the future. It’s the classic
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Russian “avos’” mentality. Once the key rate fell from 21% to 18%, people snapped up new loans without much concern about how they’d repay them later. Everyone irrationally hopes that it’s temporary and will somehow resolve itself. This is all before even accounting for the
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Read 12 tweets
Aug 29
Russia has carried out its first successful naval drone attack on the Ukrainian ship Simferopol. The Simferopol is a medium-sized Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel. The Russians struck the ship in the Danube River estuary. One sailor has been confirmed dead, while several
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others are reported missing. A breach opened in the ship’s hull, causing it to capsize. The vessel was built on the hull of a Project 502EM fishing trawler and was launched in 2019. According to military sources, the strike was conducted by a newly formed unit of the Russian
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Ministry of Defense (We should call it Ministry of Offense) — the “Division of Uncrewed Naval Systems of the Rubicon Advanced Drone Technology Center.” This marks the emergence of a new and very serious threat to Ukraine’s fleet and coastal infrastructure. It is yet another
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Read 6 tweets

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