The term "compounder" is thrown around a lot. But what does it mean?
I learned from the investing philosophies of Buffett, Munger, and others to boil down what I believe is the best overview of what a Compounding Machine actually is, and how to invest in them.
These 8 slides go over my Investing Philosophy
Compounders are highly predictable money making machines. They are defined by their many attractive attributes and lack of unattractive attributes
Compounding Machines organically grow revenue by repeatable and predictable investments in their core business. They don't rely on large, lumpy acquisitions for growth.
Compounding Machines grow free cash on a per share basis above 10% per year. Their line of growth is steady and predictable.
Compounding Machines reduce the share count over time. Most compounders do this on a steady cadence, which helps grow their free cash flow per share.
Investing in compounders well relies heavily on patience, control over impulse and emotion.
The intrinsic value of Compounders increases as they grow organic revenue, free cash flow per share, and their predictability improves (which means their moat is improving). The share price will follow the intrinsic value. Compounding Machines should always be improving intrinsic value.
I manage my portfolio of Compounding Machines by having well-defined guidelines of when I buy and when I sell. The goal is to hold these companies well and reduce the number of trades and taxes associated with trading. If you buy the right companies, you should rarely sell at a loss.
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In the short run companies are valued off narratives. In the long run companies are valued off cash flow.
Here some example of stocks making that painful transition from narrative to cash flow.
We start off with Peloton $PTON. The story behind it is it was revolutionizing the entire gym and health experience. A peak of $157, now trades at $10.
Next up, Teladoc $TDOC. This was the company that would revolutionize healthcare by making it so you no longer had to visit the doctor. Went from $290 to now $11.
Next we have Zoom $ZM. It was going to be the new big tech company built off of work from home. It peaked at $580, now trades at $86.
Costco reports earnings today. Here are a few fun facts about Costco.
Costco has grown revenue by about 10% per year for the last 30 years. They are a volume business, they care about top-line growth, not margins.
Costco will never put its employees, customers, or shareholders, at risk. For over 20 years they have had more cash than debt and capital leases. Their growth has been without using financial leverage.
Costco's membership model with high retention rate helps smooth out their earnings. Allowing them to grow earnings at a steady and consistent pace for decades.
I put together the "Compounder Checklist" as a guideline for my investments. A compounder is a high-quality durable company that's profitable through every part of the economic cycle and difficult to disrupt.
Let me go through the research for each point.
First: Why focus on compounders?
“Our research shows that these ‘compounders,’ ...have generated superior risk-adjusted returns across the economic cycle”. Simply put the reason I focus on compounders is because they have better long term returns.
1) Strong Franchise Durability
“We believe that companies with strong franchise quality have a sustainable competitive advantage by virtue of their intangible assets, which competitors generally have difficulty re-creating or duplicating.”