Zineb Riboua Profile picture
Jul 29, 2024 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
On the situation in Mali:

It's important to first of all define the terms. Tuaregs are a large semi-nomad Berber group that adopted Islam in the 7th century. They adhere mostly to Sunni Maliki Madhhab, which explains their visits to Morocco to pay homage to Saints. They are present in Niger, Mali, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. Those in Mali speak Arabic and a Berber dialect, Tamashek.
They have historically controlled the caravan roads that stretch from North Africa to Central Africa.Image
Their clothes and veils are among their most noticeable characteristics. The women hardly ever cover themselves (until recently -- recently meaning last two centuries or so) the men wear blue veils so that just their faces or eyes are seen. They also typically base their social structures on tribal allegiances and heritage and have stringent customary laws.Image
The Azawad people, which are the ones who ambushed Wagner, are also Tuaregs, but are based in Northern Mali.

They are not ISIS, they are not Al-Qaeda, they are not JNIM, and they do not want to have a Sahel/Maghreb caliphate. It is a common misconception as to what their goals are.
They claim territories from Niger, and Southern Algeria, and most importantly, want to form an independent state.
Funny thing here is that the pattern regarding their warfare tactics remained intact as the Tuaregs are known for "surprise attacks."Image
Tuareg separatists in Northern Mali have started different rebellions since the 1990s, and even prior, given that the formation of the modern Malian state following French colonial retreat did not allow them to gain in representation, they did not agree on the constitution, and ethnic violence complicated their overall integration.

Through their organized movement, National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) , in 2012, they have rebelled once again and claimed their independence in the North.

The problem was that Ansar Dine and AQMI, which are terrorist groups, wanted to seize the opportunity to absorb Azawad and create a caliphate. Which, in fact, did not happen. That being said, it is likely that they benefited from their weapons.Image
My point is very simple:

The people who killed Wagner group mercenaries, are Tuaregs, but most importantly, they’re Azawad people, they have their own demands and their own interests that should not be confused with other groups. For the sake of any reasonable discussion,..

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More from @zriboua

Mar 6
Trump is not executing a “reverse Nixon” strategy with Russia and China. It’s utter nonsense. Aside from the fact that historical comparisons between presidents are often misleading, the global balance of power has fundamentally changed. The key difference is that Nixon exploited pre-existing tensions between Beijing and Moscow. Today, however, Russia and China are more aligned than ever—economically, militarily, and diplomatically—making any attempt to drive a wedge between them far more difficult. Unlike in Nixon’s era, neither Russia nor China sees the U.S. as a necessary partner; instead, they view Washington as a common adversary, further cementing their cooperation.
Trump has been clear about his objectives: he wants a deal to end the war in Ukraine, viewing it primarily as a territorial dispute rather than part of a broader struggle against Russia.
My point: There are no Sino-Russian tensions to exploit!

It’s an analogy that makes absolutely no sense. Why is it so hard to simply believe and stick to what Trump actually does and says? The inclination to attribute to him statements he never made is misleading.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
Zelensky passing on the U.S. minerals deal was like refusing free body armor. The deal would have hardwired U.S. economic interests into Ukraine, turning any Russian attack into a direct hit on America’s supply chain. Can’t believe people are counter-signaling it.
More importantly, there is no NATO membership for Ukraine at the moment, and so it means that it relies on indirect security guarantees. By embedding US interests into its strategic resource base it is forcing the US into a deterrence posture.
Not signing the deal crippled Ukraine’s ability to use economic integration as a strategic deterrent. With Russia’s playbook built on hybrid warfare, failing to weaponize economic partnerships was a glaring operational misstep. Zelensky should have signed it.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
My latest --- Trump's 10 Laws of Power

Trump Law 1: Say It. Mean It. Do It.

Make your goals unmistakably clear, no matter the backlash. Enemies will emerge regardless—better they fear your certainty than exploit your hesitation.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Trump Law 2: Chaos Confuses—Use It to Win

Never let allies or enemies get too comfortable. The strongest leader is the one no one can fully anticipate. Leverage uncertainty as a strategic weapon—make the world react to you, not the other way around.
zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Trump Law 3: Power Rules Politics—Not Civility

Forget outdated notions of decorum. Politics is war by other means, and naming your opponents—loudly and often—keeps you in control of the battlefield.
zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
Upcoming developments in the Middle East for 2025:

-Saudis normalizing with Israelis
-Syrian government recognition but with conditions
-Abraham Accords expanding, maybe including Mauritania, Oman, and others
- Houthis getting completely wiped out
-Severe economic crisis in Iran
-Iran’s nuclear program totally halted
This is not about optimism or pessimism, it’s very much where we’re headed. Because many underestimate how much an Iran policy can change and how much of a cascade effect it creates.
I like to make predictions so that I can check whether my analyses are accurate or not. I’ll come back to this tweet in a few years.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
Is Algeria in trouble?

Algeria's diplomatic posture has become increasingly rigid, leading to severed ties with several nations and strained relations with key partners such as France and Turkey. Despite its reliance on Russia for security—evident as Russia accounted for 73% of Algeria's arms imports between 2018 and 2022—Algeria's rapport with Mali's military junta, a regional ally of Russia, has also deteriorated.

This series of confrontations suggests a troubling trend toward self-imposed isolation, a precarious and geopolitically risky position in an already volatile region.Image
First, the French file:

Algeria's relationship with France has reached a critical low. The rift deepened in mid-2024 when France endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, prompting Algeria to recall its ambassador from Paris.

Matters worsened in November when Algeria suspended trade with France, further highlighting the strained ties.

Compounding these issues, disputes emerged over the handling of deported individuals and the arrest of Algerian nationals in France. French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau remarked on the situation, accusing Algeria of attempting to "humiliate France" after refusing entry to a deported influencer.Image
More importantly, the recent detention of French-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, known for his critical views on the Algerian regime, has further strained relations between Algeria and France, with French officials condemning his imprisonment. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
My latest for @TheNatlInterest:

Assad’s collapse is a blow to Russia’s Middle East strategy and how Putin made three major strategic mistakes:

"The first miscalculation Putin made was eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin, the previous head of the paramilitary Wagner Group and the architect behind the security infrastructure that enabled Russian mercenaries to operate effectively in Syria."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%…Image
"Since 2023, Putin has attempted to safeguard Russia’s foothold in Syria, but his efforts have manifestly failed. The ecosystem Prigozhin built and sustained in Syria proved challenging to replicate."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%…Image
Putin’s second strategic mistake was turning Syria into the centerpiece of Russia’s regional logistics operations. While this reliance may have arisen out of necessity, it has exposed critical vulnerabilities.

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%…Image
Read 7 tweets

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