Zineb Riboua Profile picture
Jul 29, 2024 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
On the situation in Mali:

It's important to first of all define the terms. Tuaregs are a large semi-nomad Berber group that adopted Islam in the 7th century. They adhere mostly to Sunni Maliki Madhhab, which explains their visits to Morocco to pay homage to Saints. They are present in Niger, Mali, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. Those in Mali speak Arabic and a Berber dialect, Tamashek.
They have historically controlled the caravan roads that stretch from North Africa to Central Africa.Image
Their clothes and veils are among their most noticeable characteristics. The women hardly ever cover themselves (until recently -- recently meaning last two centuries or so) the men wear blue veils so that just their faces or eyes are seen. They also typically base their social structures on tribal allegiances and heritage and have stringent customary laws.Image
The Azawad people, which are the ones who ambushed Wagner, are also Tuaregs, but are based in Northern Mali.

They are not ISIS, they are not Al-Qaeda, they are not JNIM, and they do not want to have a Sahel/Maghreb caliphate. It is a common misconception as to what their goals are.
They claim territories from Niger, and Southern Algeria, and most importantly, want to form an independent state.
Funny thing here is that the pattern regarding their warfare tactics remained intact as the Tuaregs are known for "surprise attacks."Image
Tuareg separatists in Northern Mali have started different rebellions since the 1990s, and even prior, given that the formation of the modern Malian state following French colonial retreat did not allow them to gain in representation, they did not agree on the constitution, and ethnic violence complicated their overall integration.

Through their organized movement, National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) , in 2012, they have rebelled once again and claimed their independence in the North.

The problem was that Ansar Dine and AQMI, which are terrorist groups, wanted to seize the opportunity to absorb Azawad and create a caliphate. Which, in fact, did not happen. That being said, it is likely that they benefited from their weapons.Image
My point is very simple:

The people who killed Wagner group mercenaries, are Tuaregs, but most importantly, they’re Azawad people, they have their own demands and their own interests that should not be confused with other groups. For the sake of any reasonable discussion,..

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More from @zriboua

Jun 15
If reports are confirmed that Israel has struck Fordow, Iran’s most heavily fortified underground uranium enrichment facility, here is why I think it’s a massive development 🧵

1/ Striking Fordow means Israel is going straight for the heart of Iran’s nuclear program, likely with deep-penetration munitions or advanced drone warfare. Fordow is buried deep in a mountain near Qom and designed specifically to withstand U.S. or Israeli airstrikes.Image
2/ To strike Fordow, Israel needed real-time intelligence, likely months of infiltration, and precision weapons designed for hardened targets. If this strike was successful, it shows that Israel has penetrated the most secure levels of Iran’s military and nuclear defenses.

It also reveals that Israel does not need U.S. forces on the ground to carry out highly technical and deeply risky operations.Image
3/ For years Iran believed that sites like Fordow were immune to attack. This belief formed the foundation of its nuclear bargaining power (especially under Obama)

Israel has now shattered that illusion by proving that reinforced bunkers and diplomatic ambiguity offer no real protection.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 13
My report is live!

Israel’s success stemmed not just from tactical brilliance, but from Iran’s key miscalculations—amplified by China’s enabling role.

I argue that one of the outcomes is the accelerating disintegration of Iran’s political system.

Link: hudson.org/defense-strate…Image
The upcoming strategic shift:

hudson.org/defense-strate…Image
When command structures can no longer distinguish between internal loyalty and external manipulation, decision-making slows, risk tolerance narrows, and factionalism grows. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 7
For the first time in decades, China is showing signs of panic: the Yuan is falling, likely due to capital outflows and pressure from U.S. tariffs, and Chinese companies are facing growing financial stress. A rare breakdown in the CCP’s tightly controlled planning machinery.
Because when the CCP goes to Africa, the Middle East, and beyond, their message is always the same:

"We’ve got everything under control, we’re the future, and the U.S. dollar is the past."
They have no idea how to respond to ultimatums Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 6
Trump is not executing a “reverse Nixon” strategy with Russia and China. It’s utter nonsense. Aside from the fact that historical comparisons between presidents are often misleading, the global balance of power has fundamentally changed. The key difference is that Nixon exploited pre-existing tensions between Beijing and Moscow. Today, however, Russia and China are more aligned than ever—economically, militarily, and diplomatically—making any attempt to drive a wedge between them far more difficult. Unlike in Nixon’s era, neither Russia nor China sees the U.S. as a necessary partner; instead, they view Washington as a common adversary, further cementing their cooperation.
Trump has been clear about his objectives: he wants a deal to end the war in Ukraine, viewing it primarily as a territorial dispute rather than part of a broader struggle against Russia.
My point: There are no Sino-Russian tensions to exploit!

It’s an analogy that makes absolutely no sense. Why is it so hard to simply believe and stick to what Trump actually does and says? The inclination to attribute to him statements he never made is misleading.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
Zelensky passing on the U.S. minerals deal was like refusing free body armor. The deal would have hardwired U.S. economic interests into Ukraine, turning any Russian attack into a direct hit on America’s supply chain. Can’t believe people are counter-signaling it.
More importantly, there is no NATO membership for Ukraine at the moment, and so it means that it relies on indirect security guarantees. By embedding US interests into its strategic resource base it is forcing the US into a deterrence posture.
Not signing the deal crippled Ukraine’s ability to use economic integration as a strategic deterrent. With Russia’s playbook built on hybrid warfare, failing to weaponize economic partnerships was a glaring operational misstep. Zelensky should have signed it.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
My latest --- Trump's 10 Laws of Power

Trump Law 1: Say It. Mean It. Do It.

Make your goals unmistakably clear, no matter the backlash. Enemies will emerge regardless—better they fear your certainty than exploit your hesitation.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Trump Law 2: Chaos Confuses—Use It to Win

Never let allies or enemies get too comfortable. The strongest leader is the one no one can fully anticipate. Leverage uncertainty as a strategic weapon—make the world react to you, not the other way around.
zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Trump Law 3: Power Rules Politics—Not Civility

Forget outdated notions of decorum. Politics is war by other means, and naming your opponents—loudly and often—keeps you in control of the battlefield.
zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…
Read 12 tweets

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