Zineb Riboua Profile picture
Jul 29, 2024 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
On the situation in Mali:

It's important to first of all define the terms. Tuaregs are a large semi-nomad Berber group that adopted Islam in the 7th century. They adhere mostly to Sunni Maliki Madhhab, which explains their visits to Morocco to pay homage to Saints. They are present in Niger, Mali, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. Those in Mali speak Arabic and a Berber dialect, Tamashek.
They have historically controlled the caravan roads that stretch from North Africa to Central Africa.Image
Their clothes and veils are among their most noticeable characteristics. The women hardly ever cover themselves (until recently -- recently meaning last two centuries or so) the men wear blue veils so that just their faces or eyes are seen. They also typically base their social structures on tribal allegiances and heritage and have stringent customary laws.Image
The Azawad people, which are the ones who ambushed Wagner, are also Tuaregs, but are based in Northern Mali.

They are not ISIS, they are not Al-Qaeda, they are not JNIM, and they do not want to have a Sahel/Maghreb caliphate. It is a common misconception as to what their goals are.
They claim territories from Niger, and Southern Algeria, and most importantly, want to form an independent state.
Funny thing here is that the pattern regarding their warfare tactics remained intact as the Tuaregs are known for "surprise attacks."Image
Tuareg separatists in Northern Mali have started different rebellions since the 1990s, and even prior, given that the formation of the modern Malian state following French colonial retreat did not allow them to gain in representation, they did not agree on the constitution, and ethnic violence complicated their overall integration.

Through their organized movement, National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) , in 2012, they have rebelled once again and claimed their independence in the North.

The problem was that Ansar Dine and AQMI, which are terrorist groups, wanted to seize the opportunity to absorb Azawad and create a caliphate. Which, in fact, did not happen. That being said, it is likely that they benefited from their weapons.Image
My point is very simple:

The people who killed Wagner group mercenaries, are Tuaregs, but most importantly, they’re Azawad people, they have their own demands and their own interests that should not be confused with other groups. For the sake of any reasonable discussion,..

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More from @zriboua

May 4
My debut in @washingtonpost

Vladimir Putin’s ambitions are dying in Africa

African governments have seen what Russian reliability looks like. Moscow abandoned Syria’s Bashar al-Assad the moment rebel forces reached Damascus in December 2024, accepting his exile over any serious effort to sustain him. It is now doing the same in Mali. No government on the continent weighing its options can miss the pattern. The U.S. should seek to make that reversal permanent — knowing, as ever, that a Sahel in free fall won’t be contained.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…
As NATO concentrated on its eastern flank in the early 2020s, the Kremlin built a parallel pressure system along Europe’s southern perimeter, running from Libya through Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. By August 2024, close to 2,000 Russian personnel operated across Libyan military sites; Sudan had offered Moscow a 25-year Red Sea naval base; and the juntas of the Sahel’s three coup states had cast Russia as their sole security guarantor.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…
Iran-Russia cooperation in Sahel

Moscow presented this as liberation from Western dominance, while creating a corridor for migration and weapons transfers to put even more pressure on NATO’s southern flank. By granting Niger’s junta the political cover to sever ties with the West, Moscow also cleared the path for a $56 million deal in which Tehran acquired 300 tons of yellowcake uranium from Niamey in exchange for drones and missiles.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 25
My latest

Mali is Russia's New Afghanistan and the Bill is Going to Europe
Understanding the Problem for NATO South

When viewed alongside the rapid expansion of jihadist groups and their growing cooperation with Tuareg factions, the Tinzaouaten defeat revealed early on that Russia is repeating in West Africa the classic doctrinal mistakes of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan.

zinebriboua.com/p/mali-is-russ…
The unfolding crisis in Mali carries profound strategic consequences for Europe.

The first and most immediate risk is a renewed surge in migration.

Mali lies at the center of the main overland migration corridors from sub-Saharan Africa toward Libya and the Mediterranean. The loss of state control in Bamako and across its northern and central regions is already accelerating irregular migrant flows. These movements are larger in scale than previous waves and arrive in a Europe still politically scarred by the Libyan and Syrian crises.

zinebriboua.com/p/mali-is-russ…
The second risk is the weakening of NATO’s southern flank and the growing difficulty of effective intervention.

Jihadist groups, particularly JNIM, are actively seeking to replicate in Niger and Burkina Faso the same strategy of territorial expansion, economic blockades, and coordinated attacks that has succeeded in Mali. A contiguous zone of instability stretching across the three Alliance of Sahel States members would grant jihadists strategic depth, operational sanctuaries, and easier access toward coastal West Africa and the Maghreb. This dramatically raises the cost and complexity of any future European military engagement while leaving Europe’s southern frontier increasingly exposed and harder to defend.

zinebriboua.com/p/mali-is-russ…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 17
My latest

The IRGC's Eschatological Gamble and the Arab World's Verdict
How the Arab World Reads the IRGC

In a certain sense, the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward, always, is Qiyamah, the Day of Judgment. For Khomeini, Karbala and Qiyamah formed a single continuous arc, a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion.

In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome.

A normal Western politician carefully weighs risks and adapts to changing circumstances. But the true committed IRGC revolutionary, driven by this unshakable faith, inhabits an entirely different relationship with time. For him, the final victory is already secured. The present does not create the future, and merely confirms what was always destined to occur.

But this orientation collides at every point with the mainstream Sunni worldview, which treats Judgment Day as a matter of divine concealment rather than political schedule. Sunni tradition forbids the forcing of providence and regards any state organized around accelerating the end of history as a deviation from Islam rather than its fulfillment. The Arab world reads the IRGC through this very lens, and what it sees is not a pious republic being tested, but a heterodox project masquerading as the fulfillment of faith, structurally incapable of assessing its strategic failures.

zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
As a matter of fact, Arab media today surfaces an ideological skepticism toward the Islamic Republic that years of resistance mythology had long kept buried. That skepticism coalesces around two core claims:

First, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are executing generational modernization projects anchored in post-hydrocarbon economies oriented toward the future. Iran’s governing vision moves in the opposite direction entirely, organizing state power around an apocalyptic theology that treats modernity as a Dajjalic corruption and positions regional destabilization as a sacred instrument for hastening the end of history. For Arab capitals investing hundreds of billions into the next century, a neighbor whose ideological horizon terminates at the Mahdi's return represents a civilizational incompatibility, one that IRGC strikes on Gulf territory have now made impossible to manage through diplomacy alone.

zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
Second, Iran's revolutionary theology teaches that adversity confirms the righteousness of believers and that enemies validate prophecy, which means eschatological conviction has entirely consumed the space where strategic analysis would otherwise operate. Arabs are watching a regime facing institutional collapse before the promised fulfillment arrives, one that has no doctrinal mechanism to absorb that failure and no capacity to assess it, because in Iranian doctrinal terms, the United States was never a potential negotiating partner but a Dajjalic force of deception and corruption. What Arab observers find most damning is precisely this, that a regime organizing an entire region around its prophetic vision cannot explain, even to itself, why the prophecy is unraveling.

The theological and revolutionary mindset described above may seem dense to the uninitiated, but it is precisely the background in which the Arab world is now processing Iran's institutional and religious disintegration.

zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
My latest for @TheFP

How America Broke the Iranian Regime

This weekend, somewhere in the mountains of southwestern Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was hunting an American. They were chasing the most intoxicating image: a soldier of the “Great Satan,” bloodied and captured, paraded before the cameras on the very soil his country had come to destroy, the living fulfillment of every chant of vengeance that had echoed through Iranian streets since 1979. The IRGC held all the advantages a force could ask for: home terrain, local informant networks, and within its grasp the single most valuable propaganda asset of the entire war—a prisoner whose image alone could have rewritten the narrative of a campaign that has been catastrophic for the Islamic Republic from the first strike.
But American special operations forces got there first. And when Donald Trump announced the rescue on Truth Socialin three words—“WE GOT HIM!”—the IRGC walked away with nothing but the abandoned underwear of a man they never caught.

thefp.com/p/how-america-…Image
The episode revealed three things: complete American military superiority over the Islamic Republic on its own soil; the catastrophic failure of a surveillance architecture that Beijing had spent years and billions of dollars constructing; and the increasingly inescapable conclusion that the IRGC’s viability as a military institution is approaching its terminal phase.

thefp.com/p/how-america-…
Trump is running two operations simultaneously: one against the IRGC, and one against the assumption that the United States will indefinitely underwrite regional security at its own expense. His threats to leave NATO, vow to send the IRGC back to the stone age, and triumphalist mid-operation address thanking Gulf partners for their support are not the improvisations of an undisciplined communicator. They are the deliberate signaling of a strategic repositioning, designed to press allies into assuming greater responsibility abroad. The operation itself is a demonstration of what American military power can accomplish when it decides to act without hesitation.

thefp.com/p/how-america-…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
My latest

Trump's Middle East
Operation Epic Fury is the Logical Conclusion of Trump's Foreign Policy

Operation Epic Fury is a military campaign that, should it achieve its objectives, may mark the beginning of the end of America’s era of massive military engagement in the region. An attempt for Trump to reorder the strategic landscape of the Middle East in a way no previous administration has attempted, shifting the burden of regional containment toward Israel while freeing American political attention and capital for higher priority theaters.

Absent that outcome, Trump faces the prospect of closing his term with a permanent "Iranian threat", no expansion of Abraham Accords, no IMEC corridor that would benefit U.S. businesses, no Pax Silica that would empower U.S. tech companies, and a legacy indistinguishable from every predecessor who pledged to end American overextension in the Middle East yet never established the strategic conditions that would have made withdrawal possible.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-middl…
The Middle East, in his conception, is a real estate opportunity for the United States. Not simply a theater to be stabilized but a pivot between continents, a commercial and technological hub through which American-aligned economies would grow more deeply connected.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds would flow into American industry and technology. New corridors would reorder the movement of goods, energy, and data across Asia, Europe, and North America. That transformation, however, presupposes a Middle East in which Iran no longer holds the conditions for integration permanently at risk.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-middl…Image
Operation Epic Fury reflects an attempt to shift the underlying conditions of Middle Eastern politics. It’s a structural solution to a structural problem for Trump. Because if it succeeds, the constraints described above will loosen.

The Abraham Accords offered, I think, an early indication of what such a region might look like:

Several Arab governments signaled their willingness to normalize relations with Israel and move closer to Washington. What held them back was not a lack of political inclination. The obstacle came from the shadow cast by Iran’s network of armed proxies including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. That network made visible alignment with Israel a potentially dangerous gamble. Trump perhaps understood that incentives alone would not change the region’s calculations. Lowering the costs associated with alignment with the United States was essential.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-middl…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
My latest

Japan Is the Big Winner
The Real Story

Nothing about Operation Epic Fury occurred within a thousand miles of Tokyo. Yet no capital in the world stands to gain more from the wreckage of Khamenei’s regime than the one sitting across the East China Sea from Shanghai.

Japan is China's principal strategic rival in the Western Pacific: the two compete for military dominance in the East and South China Seas, for economic influence across Southeast Asia, for secure energy supply chains, and for the allegiance of every mid-sized Pacific power now deciding whether its future runs through Washington or Beijing.

The gains Operation Epic Fury delivered to Tokyo are structural and extend across every dimension of that rivalry.

zinebriboua.com/p/japan-is-the…
Iran is the world's most sophisticated laboratory for circumventing Western financial enforcement, and the networks it built had dual-use value for Beijing's own contingency planning in a Taiwan scenario where China itself could face comprehensive sanctions. The operational knowledge embedded in those networks is now degrading in real time. For Japanese defense planners, who have long worried that Western economic leverage over China might prove insufficient in a Taiwan crisis, the destruction of Beijing's most advanced sanctions-evasion rehearsal space is a strategic gain of the first order.

zinebriboua.com/p/japan-is-the…Image
The Five Nations Railway connecting China to Iran through Central Asia depended on political stability that no longer exists. Every month that corridor remains inoperable is another month the Malacca Strait retains its strategic centrality, and another month Japan's geographic position astride the Western Pacific sea lanes appreciates in value.
zinebriboua.com/p/japan-is-the…Image
Read 6 tweets

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