Is Algeria in trouble?

Algeria's diplomatic posture has become increasingly rigid, leading to severed ties with several nations and strained relations with key partners such as France and Turkey. Despite its reliance on Russia for security—evident as Russia accounted for 73% of Algeria's arms imports between 2018 and 2022—Algeria's rapport with Mali's military junta, a regional ally of Russia, has also deteriorated.

This series of confrontations suggests a troubling trend toward self-imposed isolation, a precarious and geopolitically risky position in an already volatile region. First, the French file:

Algeria's relationship with France has reached a critical low. The rift deepened in mid-2024 when France endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, prompting Algeria to recall its ambassador from Paris.

Matters worsened in November when Algeria suspended trade with France, further highlighting the strained ties.

Compounding these issues, disputes emerged over the handling of deported individuals and the arrest of Algerian nationals in France. French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau remarked on the situation, accusing Algeria of attempting to "humiliate France" after refusing entry to a deported influencer.

My latest for @TheNatlInterest:

Assad’s collapse is a blow to Russia’s Middle East strategy and how Putin made three major strategic mistakes:

"The first miscalculation Putin made was eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin, the previous head of the paramilitary Wagner Group and the architect behind the security infrastructure that enabled Russian mercenaries to operate effectively in Syria."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%… "Since 2023, Putin has attempted to safeguard Russia’s foothold in Syria, but his efforts have manifestly failed. The ecosystem Prigozhin built and sustained in Syria proved challenging to replicate."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%…

Why is Russia in Africa? To recruit Africans to fight in Ukraine, among other things.

Jeune Afrique published a compelling investigation titled "Putin's Riflemen," revealing how hundreds of Africans, primarily from Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and the Ivory Coast, have either been enlisted into Russia's army or joined Wagner mercenaries.

Link: jeuneafrique.com/1607615/politi…
They found that Russia uses different methods to recruit them, giving them often the illusion that they would join a company in Russia, but it is only when they arrive that they find themselves part of the Russian army.

Key findings:

1- Central Africans make up the majority of Russia's recruitment efforts, with hiring practices conducted openly.
2- Russia also targets the 40,000 African students studying in Russian universities for recruitment.
3- The Russian army frequently resorts to threats against these students if they refuse to enlist.

Why has Iran attacked?

The October 1st attack bore many similarities to the one in April, though this time Iran’s posture has notably shifted.
Firstly, Hezbollah, Iran's most prized and sophisticated proxy, has been significantly weakened. This complicates any coordination of attacks from Lebanon and Syria against Israel.
Secondly, as seen last year, Iran is facing significant domestic challenges. The Islamic Republic struggles to appeal to its younger generation and offers few economic prospects. Its discriminatory practices towards ethnic minorities have pushed Tehran to intensify its rhetoric, blaming the "Zionist" threat for its internal woes.
Lastly, Israel's sabotage operations, targeting not just Hezbollah but also the Houthis (with the killing of Houthi leader Mohammad Abdul Salam) and Hamas (with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh), have likely increased the regime's sense of paranoia. When I check on Arab media, both pro and anti-Iran, I have also noticed that one of the main concerns revolves around Iran being no longer reliable as a sponsor for "Jihad against Zionists and their supporters (meaning Sunni countries);"
By taking a step back, it becomes evident that Iran is in a position of weakness. However, it is precisely this vulnerability that makes it more threatening. Although its attacks may not be devastating, they can still achieve significant political objectives. To understand this, one must consider the regime's nature and priorities.

Since October 7, Iran has pursued three objectives: 1) asserting dominance over the Palestinian issue, 2) expanding and arming its network of proxies, as seen with the Houthis, and 3) compensating for its technological shortcomings by deepening cooperation with China and Russia, particularly in the development and acquisition of disruptive military capabilities. These short-term goals are designed to ensure Iran can seize opportunities as they arise. In this context, Iran has applied maximum pressure on U.S. allies, while also challenging U.S. influence, as demonstrated in the Red Sea, where the Houthis have successfully disrupted a vital trade route through which $1 trillion worth of goods passes.

Why is Telegram such a headache for France?

Pavel Durov, founder and CEO of Telegram, was arrested today in France, there are different charges against him.
While it would be interesting to discuss the investigation itself, putting the censorship arguments aside, (I personally use Telegram a lot to keep track of the news) I just would like to highlight how Telegram represented over the last years a national security concern for the French.
Russian mercenaries, obviously, use different platforms, but Telegram played for them an important role in accelerating the deterioration of France's military posture, especially in Africa.
I think it's important to take it into consideration when wondering why the French would get involved.

A few things to keep in mind:
- The biggest Wagner channels are on Telegram
- In general, the best way to assess if a disinformation campaign is taking place, is to check if multiple channels that are pro-Wagner or so have relayed it
- Many people use Telegram as their source of information
There were several reports that show how Telegram was spreading anti-French sentiment and fake information about French military involvement in places such as Mali that would find its way to propagate in mainstream social media platforms like Facebook.
Wagner channels, in fact, launched campaigns not only against the French but also against UN missions.

But, of course, disinformation campaigns against the French were not only taking place in the digital world, they also took forms of organized protests.

One of the most notable ones was in Niger, where right after a successful Wagner-backed coup d'état, thousands of protesters gathered outside a French military base in Niamey demanding that French troops leave, despite the fact that their missions revolved around counterterrorism against the rising Islamist insurgents in the Sahel. The French ended up leaving and putting an end to their military cooperation with Niger.

The case of Niger is especially important since it put also the EU in a tough spot given that it allocated around $554 million to Niger the last few years.

What happened since Wagner's defeat in Mali on July 25?

I would like to reiterate that this is the most significant defeat Wagner has ever experienced in Africa.
A little recap:
The Tuareg Azawad (based in the Northern part of Mali) and which operated under the group of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) defeated Wagner mercenaries and their Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) allies with a surprise ambush at Tinzaouaten, a rural commune close to Algerian southern borders.

The results of the defeat were the following according to Reuters:
- Several Russian mercenaries were killed, 20 approximately, some others have fled
- Around 10 FAMA soldiers were killed as well
- Several armored vehicles and weapons were lost
- FAMA also lost a helicopter (I saw some reports saying 2, but I can't really verify yet)
The Wagner losses were so significant that they had to issue a statement, Lavrov was also embarrassed and called his Malian counterpart where he "expressed Russia's "firm intention to continue rendering the necessary support," including on socioeconomic issues, boosting the combat capability of the armed forces, and training military personnel."

It's important to keep in mind that Mali is important for Russia for the following reasons:

1- Wagner's source of legitimacy came from its ability in 2021 to help the Malian junta's coup d'état, in which it succeeded.
2- Mali is part of the Alliance of Sahel States (with Burkina Faso, and Niger) which plays a role in weakening the African Union and ECOWAS which have a good relationship with Western institutions.
3- Yes for the gold and minerals, but Moscow is after geostrategic interests first, the gains help the mercenaries sustain themselves. I think this is an important point to emphasize. Moscow does not have a mercantilist approach contrary to common belief.

What is going on in Libya? Looming war?

Libya is once again the center of attention given the recent activities of Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and ex-officer in Gaddafi's army on Libya's Southwestern borders (directly confronting Algeria).
I would like to highlight a few things & offer some analysis of the possible repercussions.

First of all, we should keep in mind that:
1- The Basics: Libya is important because of the obvious energy resources, plays a big role in the security of the Mediterranean, and is the terminal station for migration flows.
2- Since the death of Gaddafi and the civil war, Libya is still working on preserving its territorial integrity, it is not in a comfortable state where it can act freely.
3- There is still a fight over who will be the ruler, and despite the different attempts to establish a smooth democratic transition, the interventions of Russian Wagner mercenaries and the emergence of various entities and factions such as Haftar are complicating the process. Among other things.

What is happening right now, is, however, particularly different.
Let's take a look at Libya's relationship with its neighbor, namely Algeria.
Contrary to common belief, even when Gaddafi was aligned ideologically with Algeria during his reign (anti-colonial and anti-imperialist arc), there were obvious tensions as Algeria accused Gaddafi of supporting Islamist militant groups during the Algerian Civil war in the early 1990s. The relationship stayed amicable but still tense.

On the situation in Mali:

It's important to first of all define the terms. Tuaregs are a large semi-nomad Berber group that adopted Islam in the 7th century. They adhere mostly to Sunni Maliki Madhhab, which explains their visits to Morocco to pay homage to Saints. They are present in Niger, Mali, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. Those in Mali speak Arabic and a Berber dialect, Tamashek.
They have historically controlled the caravan roads that stretch from North Africa to Central Africa. Their clothes and veils are among their most noticeable characteristics. The women hardly ever cover themselves (until recently -- recently meaning last two centuries or so) the men wear blue veils so that just their faces or eyes are seen. They also typically base their social structures on tribal allegiances and heritage and have stringent customary laws.

Is China trying to take over the Middle East? The answer isn't "Yes", or "No", the answer is: "Of course it is!" 🧵

1/ There were many indicators that China is challenging the US, not just in tech & economic warfare, but in building a parallel system that excludes the US. Xi Jinping, unlike his predecessors, has a grand vision of what China is, what it should represent, & what it deserves. Historically, China & the Middle East were close via the trade routes and there were notable cultural exchanges (Tang Dynasty), all of which Xi is aware of.

WWI - December 1916

Italian troops on skis advance on Austrian forces in the Julian Alps. Austrian soldiers defending a mountain outpost in the Isonzo region.

Grateful it’s raining, somehow contained my allergies, getting back to work & to museums.
Saw these American works today, representative of what I always noticed: Nature is a central theme in American Art. Not as a decor, but active agent, multiple references to the organic. Exhibition

Cadmus’ Night in Bologna is fantastic.
Pollock’s Going West, and Cornell’s Oriental painting.

Remembering Chopin's heart:

Chopin passed away in 1849 at 39 years old after a long battle with tuberculosis.

He had one request: that his heart be removed from his body at the moment of his death and be sent to Poland. He was horrified at the idea of being buried alive. He told his sister: “Swear to make them cut me open! So that I won’t be buried alive!”

She then smuggled his heart in 1850 out of France in a sealed crystal jar filled with Cognac, and interred it in a church pillar in Warsaw; while his body was at the Père Lachaise Cemetery.

Thread on the different reactions in MENA (people/political level/ both groups pro and anti) on Russia, Putin and Ukraine, will update the info: Egypt:

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said (...) the Egyptian “government is currently studying the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis from various aspects,”

> Tourists from Russia and Ukraine are the main visitors to the Red Sea area

al-monitor.com/originals/2022…

My piece for The American Conservative @amconmag

“An educated and healthy population determines not just the faith and destiny of a society, but more importantly, it is through it that the greatest civilizations are built”

theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-s… Special thanks to my Professor of Drug policies as well as to @LukeNiforatos for their encouragements, and of course @Micaheadowcroft.

My latest:

"Greed combined with cynicism made it possible to persuade poor women that they can use their wombs to make a living. Surrogates are spiritually dismembered, little differentiates them substantially from manufacturing machines"
zinebriboua.substack.com/p/the-baby-mac… " Women only matter because they have something which can be extracted, taken, and used, all done under the legality of the dominant ‘ethical’ orthodoxy. Women are the new laboratory rats. Women are the new Lego pieces."

zinebriboua.substack.com/p/the-baby-mac…

In Morocco, cities have a color of their own (blue, red, white,...). I’m from the Red city, Marrakech. I still don’t know what is the logic behind it, but it always fascinates me. Each city is a new galaxy

My latest:

"A pregnant woman is the antithesis of transhumanist progress, as she is out of the human condition debates, & out of history, but she is the center of ideological battles, an interchangeable pawn in the sea of ambitious dystopian futurists."
zinebriboua.substack.com/p/on-artificia… “The body is a hindrance, an obstacle; one more misery to maintain and feed, to make sleep sometimes. The body is a burden. The body is a barrier to a more egalitarian and democratic society. The body is the metastasis of our existence.”

zinebriboua.substack.com/p/on-artificia…