If reports are confirmed that Israel has struck Fordow, Iran’s most heavily fortified underground uranium enrichment facility, here is why I think it’s a massive development 🧵

1/ Striking Fordow means Israel is going straight for the heart of Iran’s nuclear program, likely with deep-penetration munitions or advanced drone warfare. Fordow is buried deep in a mountain near Qom and designed specifically to withstand U.S. or Israeli airstrikes. 2/ To strike Fordow, Israel needed real-time intelligence, likely months of infiltration, and precision weapons designed for hardened targets. If this strike was successful, it shows that Israel has penetrated the most secure levels of Iran’s military and nuclear defenses.

It also reveals that Israel does not need U.S. forces on the ground to carry out highly technical and deeply risky operations.

My report is live!

Israel’s success stemmed not just from tactical brilliance, but from Iran’s key miscalculations—amplified by China’s enabling role.

I argue that one of the outcomes is the accelerating disintegration of Iran’s political system.

Link: hudson.org/defense-strate… The upcoming strategic shift:

hudson.org/defense-strate…

For the first time in decades, China is showing signs of panic: the Yuan is falling, likely due to capital outflows and pressure from U.S. tariffs, and Chinese companies are facing growing financial stress. A rare breakdown in the CCP’s tightly controlled planning machinery. Because when the CCP goes to Africa, the Middle East, and beyond, their message is always the same:

"We’ve got everything under control, we’re the future, and the U.S. dollar is the past."

Trump is not executing a “reverse Nixon” strategy with Russia and China. It’s utter nonsense. Aside from the fact that historical comparisons between presidents are often misleading, the global balance of power has fundamentally changed. The key difference is that Nixon exploited pre-existing tensions between Beijing and Moscow. Today, however, Russia and China are more aligned than ever—economically, militarily, and diplomatically—making any attempt to drive a wedge between them far more difficult. Unlike in Nixon’s era, neither Russia nor China sees the U.S. as a necessary partner; instead, they view Washington as a common adversary, further cementing their cooperation. Trump has been clear about his objectives: he wants a deal to end the war in Ukraine, viewing it primarily as a territorial dispute rather than part of a broader struggle against Russia.

Zelensky passing on the U.S. minerals deal was like refusing free body armor. The deal would have hardwired U.S. economic interests into Ukraine, turning any Russian attack into a direct hit on America’s supply chain. Can’t believe people are counter-signaling it. More importantly, there is no NATO membership for Ukraine at the moment, and so it means that it relies on indirect security guarantees. By embedding US interests into its strategic resource base it is forcing the US into a deterrence posture.

My latest --- Trump's 10 Laws of Power

Trump Law 1: Say It. Mean It. Do It.

Make your goals unmistakably clear, no matter the backlash. Enemies will emerge regardless—better they fear your certainty than exploit your hesitation.

zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la… Trump Law 2: Chaos Confuses—Use It to Win

Never let allies or enemies get too comfortable. The strongest leader is the one no one can fully anticipate. Leverage uncertainty as a strategic weapon—make the world react to you, not the other way around.
zinebriboua.com/p/trumps-10-la…

Upcoming developments in the Middle East for 2025:

-Saudis normalizing with Israelis
-Syrian government recognition but with conditions
-Abraham Accords expanding, maybe including Mauritania, Oman, and others
- Houthis getting completely wiped out
-Severe economic crisis in Iran
-Iran’s nuclear program totally halted This is not about optimism or pessimism, it’s very much where we’re headed. Because many underestimate how much an Iran policy can change and how much of a cascade effect it creates.

Is Algeria in trouble?

Algeria's diplomatic posture has become increasingly rigid, leading to severed ties with several nations and strained relations with key partners such as France and Turkey. Despite its reliance on Russia for security—evident as Russia accounted for 73% of Algeria's arms imports between 2018 and 2022—Algeria's rapport with Mali's military junta, a regional ally of Russia, has also deteriorated.

This series of confrontations suggests a troubling trend toward self-imposed isolation, a precarious and geopolitically risky position in an already volatile region. First, the French file:

Algeria's relationship with France has reached a critical low. The rift deepened in mid-2024 when France endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, prompting Algeria to recall its ambassador from Paris.

Matters worsened in November when Algeria suspended trade with France, further highlighting the strained ties.

Compounding these issues, disputes emerged over the handling of deported individuals and the arrest of Algerian nationals in France. French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau remarked on the situation, accusing Algeria of attempting to "humiliate France" after refusing entry to a deported influencer.

My latest for @TheNatlInterest:

Assad’s collapse is a blow to Russia’s Middle East strategy and how Putin made three major strategic mistakes:

"The first miscalculation Putin made was eliminating Yevgeny Prigozhin, the previous head of the paramilitary Wagner Group and the architect behind the security infrastructure that enabled Russian mercenaries to operate effectively in Syria."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%… "Since 2023, Putin has attempted to safeguard Russia’s foothold in Syria, but his efforts have manifestly failed. The ecosystem Prigozhin built and sustained in Syria proved challenging to replicate."

nationalinterest.org/feature/assad%…

Why is Russia in Africa? To recruit Africans to fight in Ukraine, among other things.

Jeune Afrique published a compelling investigation titled "Putin's Riflemen," revealing how hundreds of Africans, primarily from Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and the Ivory Coast, have either been enlisted into Russia's army or joined Wagner mercenaries.

Link: jeuneafrique.com/1607615/politi…
They found that Russia uses different methods to recruit them, giving them often the illusion that they would join a company in Russia, but it is only when they arrive that they find themselves part of the Russian army.

Key findings:

1- Central Africans make up the majority of Russia's recruitment efforts, with hiring practices conducted openly.
2- Russia also targets the 40,000 African students studying in Russian universities for recruitment.
3- The Russian army frequently resorts to threats against these students if they refuse to enlist.

Why has Iran attacked?

The October 1st attack bore many similarities to the one in April, though this time Iran’s posture has notably shifted.
Firstly, Hezbollah, Iran's most prized and sophisticated proxy, has been significantly weakened. This complicates any coordination of attacks from Lebanon and Syria against Israel.
Secondly, as seen last year, Iran is facing significant domestic challenges. The Islamic Republic struggles to appeal to its younger generation and offers few economic prospects. Its discriminatory practices towards ethnic minorities have pushed Tehran to intensify its rhetoric, blaming the "Zionist" threat for its internal woes.
Lastly, Israel's sabotage operations, targeting not just Hezbollah but also the Houthis (with the killing of Houthi leader Mohammad Abdul Salam) and Hamas (with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh), have likely increased the regime's sense of paranoia. When I check on Arab media, both pro and anti-Iran, I have also noticed that one of the main concerns revolves around Iran being no longer reliable as a sponsor for "Jihad against Zionists and their supporters (meaning Sunni countries);"
By taking a step back, it becomes evident that Iran is in a position of weakness. However, it is precisely this vulnerability that makes it more threatening. Although its attacks may not be devastating, they can still achieve significant political objectives. To understand this, one must consider the regime's nature and priorities.

Since October 7, Iran has pursued three objectives: 1) asserting dominance over the Palestinian issue, 2) expanding and arming its network of proxies, as seen with the Houthis, and 3) compensating for its technological shortcomings by deepening cooperation with China and Russia, particularly in the development and acquisition of disruptive military capabilities. These short-term goals are designed to ensure Iran can seize opportunities as they arise. In this context, Iran has applied maximum pressure on U.S. allies, while also challenging U.S. influence, as demonstrated in the Red Sea, where the Houthis have successfully disrupted a vital trade route through which $1 trillion worth of goods passes.

Why is Telegram such a headache for France?

Pavel Durov, founder and CEO of Telegram, was arrested today in France, there are different charges against him.
While it would be interesting to discuss the investigation itself, putting the censorship arguments aside, (I personally use Telegram a lot to keep track of the news) I just would like to highlight how Telegram represented over the last years a national security concern for the French.
Russian mercenaries, obviously, use different platforms, but Telegram played for them an important role in accelerating the deterioration of France's military posture, especially in Africa.
I think it's important to take it into consideration when wondering why the French would get involved.

A few things to keep in mind:
- The biggest Wagner channels are on Telegram
- In general, the best way to assess if a disinformation campaign is taking place, is to check if multiple channels that are pro-Wagner or so have relayed it
- Many people use Telegram as their source of information
There were several reports that show how Telegram was spreading anti-French sentiment and fake information about French military involvement in places such as Mali that would find its way to propagate in mainstream social media platforms like Facebook.
Wagner channels, in fact, launched campaigns not only against the French but also against UN missions.

But, of course, disinformation campaigns against the French were not only taking place in the digital world, they also took forms of organized protests.

One of the most notable ones was in Niger, where right after a successful Wagner-backed coup d'état, thousands of protesters gathered outside a French military base in Niamey demanding that French troops leave, despite the fact that their missions revolved around counterterrorism against the rising Islamist insurgents in the Sahel. The French ended up leaving and putting an end to their military cooperation with Niger.

The case of Niger is especially important since it put also the EU in a tough spot given that it allocated around $554 million to Niger the last few years.

What happened since Wagner's defeat in Mali on July 25?

I would like to reiterate that this is the most significant defeat Wagner has ever experienced in Africa.
A little recap:
The Tuareg Azawad (based in the Northern part of Mali) and which operated under the group of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) defeated Wagner mercenaries and their Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) allies with a surprise ambush at Tinzaouaten, a rural commune close to Algerian southern borders.

The results of the defeat were the following according to Reuters:
- Several Russian mercenaries were killed, 20 approximately, some others have fled
- Around 10 FAMA soldiers were killed as well
- Several armored vehicles and weapons were lost
- FAMA also lost a helicopter (I saw some reports saying 2, but I can't really verify yet)
The Wagner losses were so significant that they had to issue a statement, Lavrov was also embarrassed and called his Malian counterpart where he "expressed Russia's "firm intention to continue rendering the necessary support," including on socioeconomic issues, boosting the combat capability of the armed forces, and training military personnel."

It's important to keep in mind that Mali is important for Russia for the following reasons:

1- Wagner's source of legitimacy came from its ability in 2021 to help the Malian junta's coup d'état, in which it succeeded.
2- Mali is part of the Alliance of Sahel States (with Burkina Faso, and Niger) which plays a role in weakening the African Union and ECOWAS which have a good relationship with Western institutions.
3- Yes for the gold and minerals, but Moscow is after geostrategic interests first, the gains help the mercenaries sustain themselves. I think this is an important point to emphasize. Moscow does not have a mercantilist approach contrary to common belief.

What is going on in Libya? Looming war?

Libya is once again the center of attention given the recent activities of Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and ex-officer in Gaddafi's army on Libya's Southwestern borders (directly confronting Algeria).
I would like to highlight a few things & offer some analysis of the possible repercussions.

First of all, we should keep in mind that:
1- The Basics: Libya is important because of the obvious energy resources, plays a big role in the security of the Mediterranean, and is the terminal station for migration flows.
2- Since the death of Gaddafi and the civil war, Libya is still working on preserving its territorial integrity, it is not in a comfortable state where it can act freely.
3- There is still a fight over who will be the ruler, and despite the different attempts to establish a smooth democratic transition, the interventions of Russian Wagner mercenaries and the emergence of various entities and factions such as Haftar are complicating the process. Among other things.

What is happening right now, is, however, particularly different.
Let's take a look at Libya's relationship with its neighbor, namely Algeria.
Contrary to common belief, even when Gaddafi was aligned ideologically with Algeria during his reign (anti-colonial and anti-imperialist arc), there were obvious tensions as Algeria accused Gaddafi of supporting Islamist militant groups during the Algerian Civil war in the early 1990s. The relationship stayed amicable but still tense.

On the situation in Mali:

It's important to first of all define the terms. Tuaregs are a large semi-nomad Berber group that adopted Islam in the 7th century. They adhere mostly to Sunni Maliki Madhhab, which explains their visits to Morocco to pay homage to Saints. They are present in Niger, Mali, Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso. Those in Mali speak Arabic and a Berber dialect, Tamashek.
They have historically controlled the caravan roads that stretch from North Africa to Central Africa. Their clothes and veils are among their most noticeable characteristics. The women hardly ever cover themselves (until recently -- recently meaning last two centuries or so) the men wear blue veils so that just their faces or eyes are seen. They also typically base their social structures on tribal allegiances and heritage and have stringent customary laws.

Is China trying to take over the Middle East? The answer isn't "Yes", or "No", the answer is: "Of course it is!" 🧵

1/ There were many indicators that China is challenging the US, not just in tech & economic warfare, but in building a parallel system that excludes the US. Xi Jinping, unlike his predecessors, has a grand vision of what China is, what it should represent, & what it deserves. Historically, China & the Middle East were close via the trade routes and there were notable cultural exchanges (Tang Dynasty), all of which Xi is aware of.

WWI - December 1916

Italian troops on skis advance on Austrian forces in the Julian Alps. Austrian soldiers defending a mountain outpost in the Isonzo region.

Grateful it’s raining, somehow contained my allergies, getting back to work & to museums.
Saw these American works today, representative of what I always noticed: Nature is a central theme in American Art. Not as a decor, but active agent, multiple references to the organic. Exhibition

Cadmus’ Night in Bologna is fantastic.
Pollock’s Going West, and Cornell’s Oriental painting.

Remembering Chopin's heart:

Chopin passed away in 1849 at 39 years old after a long battle with tuberculosis.

He had one request: that his heart be removed from his body at the moment of his death and be sent to Poland. He was horrified at the idea of being buried alive. He told his sister: “Swear to make them cut me open! So that I won’t be buried alive!”

She then smuggled his heart in 1850 out of France in a sealed crystal jar filled with Cognac, and interred it in a church pillar in Warsaw; while his body was at the Père Lachaise Cemetery.

Thread on the different reactions in MENA (people/political level/ both groups pro and anti) on Russia, Putin and Ukraine, will update the info: Egypt:

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said (...) the Egyptian “government is currently studying the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis from various aspects,”

> Tourists from Russia and Ukraine are the main visitors to the Red Sea area

al-monitor.com/originals/2022…

My piece for The American Conservative @amconmag

“An educated and healthy population determines not just the faith and destiny of a society, but more importantly, it is through it that the greatest civilizations are built”

theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-s… Special thanks to my Professor of Drug policies as well as to @LukeNiforatos for their encouragements, and of course @Micaheadowcroft.