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Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
@AmesCG
Jul 29 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Over the weekend Secretary Buttigieg made headlines noting that crime has fallen dramatically over the past few years. He's right, and efforts to dismiss the data he's relying on are wildly misguided. newsweek.com/pete-buttigieg…
First, the facts. FBI data shows violent crime fell in 2022 and local police data shows it likely dropped even faster in 2023. New FBI data should confirm that in early October. brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…
Data on 2024 is starting to come in. Per @CouncilonCJ, many violent crimes are likely now *at or below* pre-pandemic levels. Property crime is a mixed bag but falling violence is an enormous accomplishment. counciloncj.org/crime-trends-i…
Some have tried to sow doubt by pointing to a sharp drop in the number of police agencies reporting crime data to the FBI. But that happened in 2021. More recent FBI data covered 90%+ of the population. brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…
Police data also independently confirms that crime is down (for example, see Philadelphia below). And one of the crimes falling fastest is murder, which is tracked very accurately. phillypolice.com/crimestats/
We need to invest in better crime data. But we can be very confident that violent crime is dropping. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

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More from @AmesCG

Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
Oct 16, 2023
New data from the @FBI: the national murder rate dropped by 6.5 percent in 2022, falling below 2020 levels. Data from other experts (@Crimealytics & @CouncilonCJ) shows we can expect that trend to continue, and maybe even accelerate, in 2023.

(Short thread)
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@FBI @Crimealytics @CouncilonCJ The violent crime rate also dropped slightly (-2.1%).

Of concern, however, is a major increase in motor vehicle thefts. This spike may be due to a social media trend that exposed security vulnerabilities in millions of cars. npr.org/2023/05/04/117…
@FBI @Crimealytics @CouncilonCJ Larceny, which includes shoplifting, also increased in 2022 – another cause for concern. But the larceny rate (thefts per 100,000 people) remains below both 2019 and 2020 levels. And 2023 data shows it may be poised to decline this year.
counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-…
Read 4 tweets
Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
Apr 23, 2022
Research shows that the ACA’s Medicaid expansion led to a sharp drop in arrest rates, and particularly drug arrests.

If we took findings like this one seriously — and I think we should — what would it mean for public safety? A short thread. (1/5)

journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
Every week we see columns, tweets, headlines blaming progressive prosecutors (wrongly) for crime. But hard research shows that aggressive misdemeanor prosecution might actually *increase* crime — inverting the popular narrative around public safety. (2/5)

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
And by contrast, a new paper shows that cutting welfare benefits appears to have a serious & lasting effect on crime rates, markedly increasing “offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation.” (3/5) bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/…
Read 5 tweets
Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
Oct 27, 2021
Barbarian invasions didn't singlehandedly topple the Roman Empire, nor did (per Gibbon and other scolds) some too-narratively-convenient collapse of republican virtue. Instead, the fall of Rome was at least in part a supply chain failure.

A short thread!!
Starting in the mid-second century B.C.E., the Roman state provided free or subsidized grain to some subset of the population. Egypt began to supply most of that grain starting in the reign of Augustus.
Fast forward to roughly 400 C.E. and, while Egypt now supplies Constantinople, the Western Roman Empire still depends on grain from North Africa. Around midcentury, though, Gothic armies capture North Africa. Regular traffic of grain ships across the Mediterranean *to Rome* ends.
Read 8 tweets
Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
Oct 26, 2021
This is a big deal. Thank you @RSI for getting into the fight for bipartisan sentencing reform. Work your magic, @senatorshoshana.
@RSI @senatorshoshana Allow me to expand. This is a big deal because it's another policy heavyweight, with significant credibility on the Hill, coming out in favor of a sentencing reform package that's flying under the radar of most reporters, but will do a lot of good once enacted.
@RSI @senatorshoshana But @RSI is *also* endorsing the Equal Act, as a matter of public safety and common sense. That bill would finally #endthedisparity in crack and powder cocaine punishment, but faces an uncertain future in the Senate despite a resounding 6-1 vote in the House.
Read 4 tweets
Ames Grawert ☀️ Profile picture
Oct 26, 2021
Great team. I'll be listening!
Downplaying the increase in homicides makes it seem like “reform is a luxury.” That’s a mistake, says @JohnFPfaff. Really insightful point that turns the issue’s framing on its head.
Yes, crime in general is down. But violent crime drives the political discussion, and murder especially, says @JohnFPfaff.
Read 5 tweets

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