Over the weekend Secretary Buttigieg made headlines noting that crime has fallen dramatically over the past few years. He's right, and efforts to dismiss the data he's relying on are wildly misguided. newsweek.com/pete-buttigieg… First, the facts. FBI data shows violent crime fell in 2022 and local police data shows it likely dropped even faster in 2023. New FBI data should confirm that in early October. brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…

New data from the @FBI: the national murder rate dropped by 6.5 percent in 2022, falling below 2020 levels. Data from other experts (@Crimealytics & @CouncilonCJ) shows we can expect that trend to continue, and maybe even accelerate, in 2023.

(Short thread)

@FBI @Crimealytics @CouncilonCJ The violent crime rate also dropped slightly (-2.1%).

Of concern, however, is a major increase in motor vehicle thefts. This spike may be due to a social media trend that exposed security vulnerabilities in millions of cars. npr.org/2023/05/04/117…

Research shows that the ACA’s Medicaid expansion led to a sharp drop in arrest rates, and particularly drug arrests.

If we took findings like this one seriously — and I think we should — what would it mean for public safety? A short thread. (1/5)

journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… Every week we see columns, tweets, headlines blaming progressive prosecutors (wrongly) for crime. But hard research shows that aggressive misdemeanor prosecution might actually *increase* crime — inverting the popular narrative around public safety. (2/5)

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…

Barbarian invasions didn't singlehandedly topple the Roman Empire, nor did (per Gibbon and other scolds) some too-narratively-convenient collapse of republican virtue. Instead, the fall of Rome was at least in part a supply chain failure.

A short thread!! Starting in the mid-second century B.C.E., the Roman state provided free or subsidized grain to some subset of the population. Egypt began to supply most of that grain starting in the reign of Augustus.

This is a big deal. Thank you @RSI for getting into the fight for bipartisan sentencing reform. Work your magic, @senatorshoshana.

https://twitter.com/RSI/status/1453066143950852104

@RSI @senatorshoshana Allow me to expand. This is a big deal because it's another policy heavyweight, with significant credibility on the Hill, coming out in favor of a sentencing reform package that's flying under the radar of most reporters, but will do a lot of good once enacted.

Great team. I'll be listening!

https://twitter.com/JoshuaBHoe/status/1450658933530664964

Downplaying the increase in homicides makes it seem like “reform is a luxury.” That’s a mistake, says @JohnFPfaff. Really insightful point that turns the issue’s framing on its head.