Perspective: Israel only emerged as a cohesive state, eschewing an intra-Jewish civil war, only because in '48 one faction moved very quickly, and pretty brutally, to concentrate weapons in its own hands and monopolize "legitimate violence"...
defeating/coopting other militias and instituting some of the world's toughest gun laws (even police trade unions are banned bc they would amount to armed orgs independent of the state!) Nine months into the war, this equilibrium is out of the window, owing to three factors - -
a) Unprecedented numbers of mobilised continually armed reservists b) a 800% rise in gun licenses issued by Itamar Ben Gvir, convicted terrorist and now police minister c)exhausted, underpaid, already problematic & violent police getting explicitly, factionally politicised by BG
What we saw yest was a tiny, tiny preview that got successfully deescalated, partly by sheer luck. Expect this x10 next time soldiers are arrested (even for protection from the Hague), and potensh x20 if IDF leave Gaza before "total victory" "finishing the job." I still think...
that getting rid of Netanyahu will be a huge step toward national and regional stabilisation. But we're close to a point where it might not be enough: his catastrophic, narcissistic mismanagement of the war and the country evidently armed time bombs that will long outlive him.
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