🚨🧵The official IDF investigation is out, and and the crux pretty much confirms the leak to Haaretz on Tuesday: Forces “identified” a gunman on an unrelated truck, and then, although they never got another visual, ASSUMED that hypothetical gunman was on one of the WCK vehicles.

https://twitter.com/mrconfino/status/1776195623336775775

The new info:
1. “The forces did not identify the vehicles in question as being associated with WCK.” Even if we assume they didn’t use high-res surveillance cameras to hit the first car right in the WCK logo...

🚨Absolutely stunning new investigation by @yuval_abraham of @972mag. TLDR: In Oct, IDF expanded kill lists from "top commanders" to "everyone Hamas"—37k ppl.
Via a slap-up AI bot.
And it increased quota of permitted collateral damage from "zero" to "20" civilians per target. Soldiers and officers were told to treat the AI bot decision's as direct orders and not to double-check its decisions despite the only check ever run on it via a random sample showed only 9 in 10 names it picked out had even tangential connections to Hamas.

The IDF's early explanation re the killing of the World Central Kitchen team is in - per "security sources" speaking to Haaretz. Before we get to the putative pretext for the attack, they also disclose a harrowing detail - the drone bombed the convoy THREE TIMES in succession.. because team survived one hit and tried taking cover in another vehicle, and then survivors moved to a third - and were finished off there. Deliberate, repeated targeting of convoy, making sure no one was left alive.
And this actually doesn't stack up w the alleged pretext:

Jonathan Shimriz, brother of Alon Shimriz - one of the three Israeli hostages shot by IDF - got a condolence call from Defense Minister Galant. Here is how he replied:
"I told him I'll haunt him to his grave," "And I told him I won't rest and I'll show up in his nightmares,"

🧵 Really interesting piece from Israeli TV on the question of where were Israel's fabled combat helicopters on October 7th. TLDR: 1. Israel has been cutting back on combat helicopters for years...
Cobras were quietly phased out a decade ago and weren’t replaced. Currently, Israel only has two operational squadrons and one of them was due to be phased out this year (!) The reason appears to be cost and benefit, specifically in favour of drones*, which are...

🧵 @lizarozovsky and @nirhasson from @Haaretz have a definitive piece debunking or qualifying many of the worst atrocity stories from Oct 7th. It's paywalled & in Hebrew so posting key points here as a counter-disinfo resource. Be advised: GRAPHIC THREAD. haaretz.co.il/news/politics/… First, a caveat that they make and I join: There is zero doubt and plenty evidence Hamas carried out war crimes and crimes against humanity on October 7th. These include the massacre of 1,200 people, mostly unarmed civilians; rapes, mutilations, torture, sexual assault...

So here's a story of our time.
1. In 2016, an Israeli soldier called Elor Azaria executes a wounded Palestinian militant. Point blank. On camera.
2. He becomes a hero to the far-right and the execution of wounded suspects briefly became a wedge issue in Israeli society. 3. Briefly, bc it's long been accepted - at least since 2nd intifada - than even if someone used a butter knife to attack soldiers they might ALSO have a suicide vest and therefore need to be finished off, in case.
4. Which makes no sense to me and idk if ever happened, but ok.

So—late last week I wrote this thread on we were likely heading toward 'only' a limited incursion,away from regional war. I still think regional war is avoidable, but trend is now moving in opposite direction and speeding up. TLDR: Start pressing Israel toward a ceasefire NOW.🧵

https://twitter.com/reider/status/1716940811764629546

So far, we've managed to avoid a regional war because...
a) America rocked up with its aircraft carrier groups;
b) America and regional powers were reasonably reassured Israel can’t / won’t go the whole nine yards in Gaza even with ground incursion;
c) because Iran...

1. This is huge, major props to @yuval_abraham and @972mag.
2. The minister responsible, Gila Gamliel is a Likud *MODERATE*. She's an non-entity who's been flailing to a) redeem her reputation after her pretty nominal "Intelligence" ministry became a flaming hot potato, and...

https://twitter.com/972mag/status/1719025115810426947

b) to position herself as a post-Bibi leadership figure. Because the entire cabinet is a circular PR firing squad, this means telling ppl what they want to hear: flirting with resigning etc.
3. The composition of this plan needs to be seen in this context. This is...

This is one of those threads that might age very badly, very fast, but I'll risk it: I don't think there's going to be a ground incursion, or a regional war, yet. ֿֿIn fact, barring another hospital hit or something similarly ghastly, we're going to de-escalation, of sorts🧵 1. The IDF not only wasn't prepared on the defensive on October 7th; it was also massively underprepared to launch a successful counter-attack. It didn't have the intel (as evidenced by Hamas attack itself), the plans to suppress Gaza (having subcontracted Hamas for that) or...

I'm looking at Palestinian and pro-Palestinian people here bending over backwards to disbelieve what Hamas did on October 7th, and I really feel like saying: I get it. It's wretchedly hard to accept your own boys - people like you, who, broadly speaking, stand for what you... stand for, are capable of such horrors; that victims of ethnic cleansing can incinerate families, kill kids, depopulate villages. It's hard. Probably as hard as it is for us Israelis to face the facts about our own soldiers, whether in 1948 or Gaza 2023. A new shared experience.

One of the more horrific photos in the October 7 massacre came from a bus stop in Sderot; a pile of bodies of older folk, evidently executed. I kept wondering why people were at a bus stop early Saturday morning, when no buses go? Now we know: it was... a group of pensioners on an organised trip to the Dead Sea. They were passing Sderot when the rockets began, dismounted, and ran for shelter - but one of those ISIS-style white Hamas Toyotas caught up, and machine-gunned them at close range. The driver of the minibus,

It's kind of exhausting to even relate this, but yesterday a bunch of reps from the hostage families org were abruptly summoned for a meeting with Netanyahu. At the meet they were joined by three other parents associated with the far right - and by some guy they didn't recognise and still don't have the name of. The three right-wing parents expressed support for Netanyahu and for a much harder line in Gaza than the official parents forum - and then the unknown guy declared he loves his daughter but is ready to sacrifice her for the good of the state

It's kicking off: As of today, Netanyahu's govt is legislating to demolish Israel's judiciary & constitution, muzzle free media,and annex the West Bank. He's been answered w immense protests, national strikes and open discussions of a military coup. thelead.uk/israel-brink + 🧵👇 How did we get here? Well.
1. "Bibi" Netanyahu ruled Israel from 2009 to 2021.
2. He managed this by building coalitions of even more extreme right-wingers + centrists, which he played off against each other; and by chasing out any right-wing ally who could challenge him.

Breaking: Israel has just offered humanitarian aid to Lebanon after Beirut catastrophe. I think this is a first - not just for Lebanon but for any designated "enemy state." So: As people have pointed out, Israel has treated Syrians wounded in the civil war there - but this is not the same as a direct offer of help from one sovereign govt to another; and has offered help to Iran after 2017 quake (turned down.) But Beirut is much closer to home...