“the problem with deliveries of bread, cereals, flour, spices and bottles of water arose last week.”
“As Mash writes, the reason was a failure in the operation of the X5 Group distribution centers, from where goods are delivered to stores. Following anti-migrant raids, as a result of which some employees were deported from Russia, the centers are short about 1,000 workers.”
Notice: I was trying to up date my spreadsheets in preparation for tomorrow’s OFZ auction date when I noticed a change to some Russian Central Bank Data that I have started regularly sharing with you.
👉 The banking sector liquidity deficit/surplus
When I started sharing the data, I pointed out that due to “accounting reasons” the surplus liquidity in the Russian Central Bank data is displayed as a negative number.
That hurt my head. It just seemed counterintuitive, so I switched in my chart to a positive number.
In last week’s OFZ thread it was reported to be 391.3 Billion rubles as of 19 September
"Time dictates a reduction in the duration of secondary education, the fact that we have 11 years is an unaffordable luxury. As if we were living in the 19th century. It must be compressed"
~ Vladimir Medinsky
The average American gets 13 to 14 years of education BEFORE college
That’s Pre-school (more common now), kindergarten, then grades 1-12. With most people graduating from High school at age 17 or 18.
THEN you go to a Trade School, College or University
Note: Margarita keeps lying about the American education system
“In Russia, about 22 billion rubles are needed to replace elevators in the three-year term, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing and Utilities Svetlana Razvorotneva told Parlamentskaya Gazeta.”
“"The number of elevators that are not replaced in a timely manner is constantly accumulating. We were supposed to replace all elevators that have reached the end of their service life by 2025, but most likely this deadline will be postponed (...).”
I read a some new information, looked at some old information, and 😵💫 things are very confusing. But one thing is certain, things don’t look great.
Let’s talk about it.
I think the best place to start is with what we do know and what we know we don’t know?
1. There is a labor shortage everywhere in Russia
Normally I would modify my statement and say “practically everywhere” and maybe I still will but, I can’t think of a large field without a labor shortage. There are areas that are more dire than others.
“Dry weather in southern Russia could cause the corn harvest to fall by almost 30% year-on-year, making it the worst in six years. This creates new risks of rising grain prices within the country, businesses fear.”
It’s important to remember that corn is an input for a lot of other industries, which means the increases in costs will be distributed through multiple products.
It’s not just the volume but the quantity also appears to be down.
“The corn harvest in Russia in 2024 will amount to 11.9 million tons, having decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, according to calculations by SovEcon. This is worse than the dynamics of other crops.”
This might be something to keep an eye on. Last fall we saw eggs become icon of skyrocketing food prices in Russia.
This year it might be Dairy products.
Previously I put together this thread the walked through some of the issues Russia was having with dairy. In particular, remember that the problem with cultures is going to begin coming prevalent.