Much speculation about what Netanyahu’s strategy is here:
Option 1: Assassinate leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah (and maybe a few more operations up his sleeve) to show toughness to his public, but to prepare the ground for declaring victory and end of war in Gaza. (Thread) 1/7
Option 1: Assassinate leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah (and maybe a few more operations up his sleeve) to show toughness to his public, but to prepare the ground for declaring victory and end of war in Gaza. (Thread) 1/7
Option 2: Escalate dramatically against Hezbollah and Iran—and hit capitals—in order to trigger a larger war. That would enable largescale Israeli action against Hezbollah, including a limited ground invasion. 2/7
And drag the US into a forced confrontation on the side of Israel, against Iran.
Not clear if any of this was discussed or coordinated in Washington--or not--during his visit last week. 3/7
Not clear if any of this was discussed or coordinated in Washington--or not--during his visit last week. 3/7
Might have a connection with the upcoming US elections: he just got rousing support in Congress and has a lame duck presidential ally in Biden.
Harris will not be much of an ally if she is elected; 4/7
Harris will not be much of an ally if she is elected; 4/7
and Trump probably made clear to Netanyahu that he should do what he needs to do before Trump assumes office. Trump doesn’t want to inherit an ongoing war. 5/7
On the side of Iran and Hezbollah, they are all but forced to retaliate. And hard to imagine that they don’t aim for a high value target in Tel Aviv, to demonstrate symmetry after attacks in Tehran and Beirut. And that will mean automatic and major escalation. 6/7
Diplomats of the world, unite! Urgent need for effective crisis management, followed by effective de-escalation. This conflict could get much bigger and much wider very quickly. Affecting more countries in the region, as well as the global economy. 7/7
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