Thoughts about the possible outlines of an Iranian-axis response and the escalatory pathways ahead. A Thread. 1/12 - On Timing: Iran&allies still leaving this vague. Reports of many demanding an immediate response; others arguing that Israel and US now on high alert and preparedness; better to wait a month or two or more for high alert to pass and to regain the element of surprise. 2/12

Much speculation about what Netanyahu’s strategy is here:
Option 1: Assassinate leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah (and maybe a few more operations up his sleeve) to show toughness to his public, but to prepare the ground for declaring victory and end of war in Gaza. (Thread) 1/7 Option 2: Escalate dramatically against Hezbollah and Iran—and hit capitals—in order to trigger a larger war. That would enable largescale Israeli action against Hezbollah, including a limited ground invasion. 2/7

The ruling class in Lebanon is hopelessly corrupt, compromised and inept. The revolution has it right: they all need to go. This implies that we need a new generation of leaders, indeed of representatives. Almost five months into the revolt, we have still not produced these new representatives, nor have we put in place a process to do so. The moment of truth will be at the next parliamentary elections, whether in 2022 or earlier.

Iran might focus on consolidating gain in iraq, and its presence in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Might keep other escalations with US limited. Wants to encourage Trump to leave Iraq quickly; and wants to hurt his re-election campaign; but doesn’t want to provoke wider war.

https://twitter.com/paul_salem/status/1213844312099868672

I expect Iran/Iraq eventually to invite Russia into Iraq to provide the air power that will not be available if and when the US leaves.