🧵1/
As I wrote a few days ago, the most likely scenario has come to pass: a “performative limited retaliation against the US"--Iran lobbed missiles at the US base in Qatar; and a “winding down of the campaign”--Trump announced a 3-way ceasefire.
#Iran #Israel #MiddleEast

https://twitter.com/mideasteditor/status/1936794050130038919

2/
In the coming days, Israel & the US will move to replenish their interceptor missile stockpiles, assess damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and determine where Iran's enriched uranium is stored.

I 🧵 Strategic scenarios after the Israeli strikes on Iran:
The region has entered a perilous new phase. What happens next depends on the choices of Israel, Iran—and the US. A short thread from my latest article for@middleeastinstitute. ⬇️
#Israel #iran #MiddleEast

https://twitter.com/mideasteditor/status/1933579641047941607

1️⃣ On the Israeli side,Netanyahu has made himself central to any deal—or confrontation—with Iran.After the strike, he could pause to allow a brief window for diplomacy. Or,escalate into a sustained campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear and leadership infrastructure.

This is a moment to celebrate the fall of one of the most brutal regimes of modern times. Many of my Syrian colleagues are in tears of joy. The challenge now is to manage a successful transition. Too many Arab countries have spiraled into chaos after the fall of a tyrant. 1/14 It is a good sign that Prime Minister Jalali has stayed in place and pledged to be part of the transition. How to keep and strengthen the institutions of the state while removing the ‘regime’? Will not be easy. 2/14

Thoughts about the possible outlines of an Iranian-axis response and the escalatory pathways ahead. A Thread. 1/12 - On Timing: Iran&allies still leaving this vague. Reports of many demanding an immediate response; others arguing that Israel and US now on high alert and preparedness; better to wait a month or two or more for high alert to pass and to regain the element of surprise. 2/12

Much speculation about what Netanyahu’s strategy is here:
Option 1: Assassinate leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah (and maybe a few more operations up his sleeve) to show toughness to his public, but to prepare the ground for declaring victory and end of war in Gaza. (Thread) 1/7 Option 2: Escalate dramatically against Hezbollah and Iran—and hit capitals—in order to trigger a larger war. That would enable largescale Israeli action against Hezbollah, including a limited ground invasion. 2/7

The ruling class in Lebanon is hopelessly corrupt, compromised and inept. The revolution has it right: they all need to go. This implies that we need a new generation of leaders, indeed of representatives. Almost five months into the revolt, we have still not produced these new representatives, nor have we put in place a process to do so. The moment of truth will be at the next parliamentary elections, whether in 2022 or earlier.

Iran might focus on consolidating gain in iraq, and its presence in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Might keep other escalations with US limited. Wants to encourage Trump to leave Iraq quickly; and wants to hurt his re-election campaign; but doesn’t want to provoke wider war.

https://twitter.com/paul_salem/status/1213844312099868672

I expect Iran/Iraq eventually to invite Russia into Iraq to provide the air power that will not be available if and when the US leaves.