Assassinating Haniya is an empty victory image that reeks of desperation & malevolence.
He was a politician not a militant leader. Israeli media themselves admit his killing will have minimal effect on Hamas' operations.
But it'll dramatically impact internal power dynamics🧵
He was a politician not a militant leader. Israeli media themselves admit his killing will have minimal effect on Hamas' operations.
But it'll dramatically impact internal power dynamics🧵
2\ Haniya lived in the open & NOT in hiding like Sinwar. So reaching his head is NOT an achievement.
Why kill him now?
1- Ruin the ceasefire/prisoner swap negotiations
2- Kill chances of Palestinian unity after Beijing's summit
3- Push Hamas to become more hardline
Why kill him now?
1- Ruin the ceasefire/prisoner swap negotiations
2- Kill chances of Palestinian unity after Beijing's summit
3- Push Hamas to become more hardline
3\ Haniya was a pragmatist & had a moderating influence on Sinwar & Hamas' military wing.
Khaled Meshal, Haniya likely temporary successor, is a moderate within the movement, but doesn't have as much authority over the militants & Sinwar. He's not a Gazan & not as well-connected to everyone on the ground as Haniya was.
Khaled Meshal, Haniya likely temporary successor, is a moderate within the movement, but doesn't have as much authority over the militants & Sinwar. He's not a Gazan & not as well-connected to everyone on the ground as Haniya was.
4\ Israel assassinated Marwan Issa, the head of the Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip & claims to have assassinated the Qassam chief, al-Deif, (Hamas denies this).
This empties the stage for the heir apparent, Sinwar's brother Mohammed, further bolstering the Sinwars' power.
This empties the stage for the heir apparent, Sinwar's brother Mohammed, further bolstering the Sinwars' power.
5\ Haniya was supportive of unity with the Palestinian Authority in the Beijing summit last week & held moderate & pragmatist positions in the ceasefire negotiations.
He would've been the best equipped person to persuade Sinwar of a deal & influence his inner circle.
He would've been the best equipped person to persuade Sinwar of a deal & influence his inner circle.
6\ Haniya was on his way out already in Hamas' internal elections scheduled after the war, b/c he'd already served 2 terms in office (Hamas has a strict limit).
So, again, why take him out other than for a desperate victory image & to ruin the ceasefire talks?
So, again, why take him out other than for a desperate victory image & to ruin the ceasefire talks?
7\ Ex-Top Israeli General Amiram Levin admits the assassination of Haniya is "madness" & says the "security forces should've strongly opposed" it
Israeli experts know behind this empty victory image is a deliberate attempt by Netanyahu to destroy the hostage/ceasefire negotiations!
Israeli experts know behind this empty victory image is a deliberate attempt by Netanyahu to destroy the hostage/ceasefire negotiations!
8\ Haniya's potential successors are:
1- Khaled Meshal
2- Khalil al-Haiya
3- Musa Abu Marzouq
4- Nizar Awadallah
5- Yahia Sinwar
Meshaal & Abu Marzouq are both considered moderates in Hamas & both served previously as heads of Hamas' political bureau. But both are not Gazan & that impacts their chances, since Gaza has become the centre of gravity for the movement.
1- Khaled Meshal
2- Khalil al-Haiya
3- Musa Abu Marzouq
4- Nizar Awadallah
5- Yahia Sinwar
Meshaal & Abu Marzouq are both considered moderates in Hamas & both served previously as heads of Hamas' political bureau. But both are not Gazan & that impacts their chances, since Gaza has become the centre of gravity for the movement.
9\ Haniya openly & officially offered Israel peace on the basis of a two-state solution last November.
I.e. He was willing to accept a Palestinian state on 22% of historic Palestine.
I.e. He was willing to accept a Palestinian state on 22% of historic Palestine.
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