Thread by @sambendett

1/ THREAD: Yesterday, Russian Defense Minister Belousov's comments about how many drones are at the front caused a slight confusion. Russian state media outlet RIA first reported him saying that "domestic FPV drone production has grown to 4000 per day." But then...

2/ ...RIA edited the original article so that he was quoted saying that the "number of FPV drones on the line of contact has sharply increased to 4000 per day" (see screenshots above). Russia's Lenta media outlet did not help either - it has him saying that every day, "4,000 FPV drones are delivered to the front in response to the wish of one of the soldiers to have a certain number of drones in each detachment."

3/ Russian military's bloggers seized on these numbers, assuming Belousov's original comment was the right one: "About 4,000 FPV drones delivered per day means a production rate of about 1.4 million drones per year. At the same time, if you divide this figure by the number..."

4/ "...UAV operators - according to various estimates, there are about 4,000 of them at the front on each side at any one time - you get one drone per operator daily. The length of the combat engagement line is estimated at 2,000 km - for every km, there are two UAV operators, each with one daily attempt to use a drone."

4/ "With an average cost of an FPV drone of 50,000 rubles, their annual purchasing budget can be estimated at about 70 billion rubles. Taking into account the success rate - usually 10% of the number of sorties is cited on average - the real need of the front is at least 10 times greater, and we therefore get a budget requirement of 700 billion rubles."

5/ There are no public numbers of Russian drone production budgets, although costs of some larger military drones were made public recently. There are no official Russian MOD budgetary numbers for quadcopter or FPV acquisitions. The above numbers are a conjecture by volunteers.

6/ The RIA editing itself is interesting, quickly switching from potentially revealing domestic production numbers to a more general statement that thousands of drones are recorded used at the line contact, likely from both sides. Some Russian articles still carry Belousov's original comment.

7/ Other Russian volunteers called for a sobering assessment of what Belousov actually meant: "Stop chasing the number of drones! The (use/production) numbers are beautiful, but no one cares that the level of (drone) defects is off the charts, and reaching the enemy is a huge problem. We need not the number of drones, but a built-in system."

8/ "One (Russian) crew with a hundred drones without repeaters will lose out to a (Ukrainian drone) crew with a repeater and ten drones. Now some locations are supplied with FPV drones - a bottle of water is tied to the drone, a check mark appears in the report about the drone use, but where they waste a hundred ordinary drones, one heavy drone with a drop could easily work!"

9/ "Only a built-in system (that analyzes drone use and allocation) can understand and solve pressing (tactical UAV) problems. Only competition and painstaking work will allow us to reach the (drone R&D and use) level of our enemy. So far, we are lagging behind the Ukrainians in the effectiveness of using FPV drones."

10/ Belousov's "4000 FPV drones per day" statement got a response from Anna Gvozdyar, Ukraine's Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries, who said that in Ukraine, state and private companies can potentially produce about 3 million drones per year, but the state cannot cover all the costs unless allies assist. epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/…

11/ Many Russian bloggers and commentators constantly refer to Ukraine's better drone development and use processes, from organizations like "Army of Drones" and "Brave1" to integration of UAV units in combined arms formations. And many Russians reference lots of Ukrainian...

12/ ...FPV drones at the front, though more Ukrainian comments now also refer to a growing number of Russian tactical drones. And can the combined Russian volunteer and industry efforts produce 4k FPVs daily? Its possible assuming the Russian defense corporations are...

13/...involved in manufacturing processes - but available evidence points to a limited Russian defense-industrial role in FPV assembly, which is still done mostly by volunteers. So where did Belousov get the 4K number? Perhaps its an actual reference to how many drones are recorded at the line of contact, which seems more realistic.

14/ Regardless, its difficult to estimate how many FPVs are manufactured by Russia, given varying claims by different volunteers and start ups, and a lack of official data from the Russian MOD and government - until Belousov's comment yesterday.

15/ Moving forward, there is going to be more integration in Russia between volunteer military-oriented efforts and the MOD - see this thread from yesterday:

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1818308177517019427

16/ And multiple Russian commentators' calls for a better system in the Russian military for acquiring, integrating and using drones - possibly modeled after a Ukrainian military - probably deserves closer scrutiny going forward. Unless DefMin Belousov says something else.