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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jul 31 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
INSIGHT into why the loss of Haniyeh matters most of all for Hamas. Hamas wanted to leverage Oct. 7 to come to power in Ramallah. The Iranian axis was working to bring Haniyeh and Hamas to power and replace the PA. China was brokering the talks with the 14 factions to accomplish it
Ankara and Doha were working closely to coordinate this goal. The reason Doha dragged out the hostage talks was to bring Hamas more clout and enable it to survive in Gaza and then get a deal that would let it release hostages slowly, to take over the West Bank.
Haniyeh was key to the Hamas plans. It knew he had popularity in the West Bank and among other Palestinian factions. There were increased whispers among the Palestinian factions that they could work with him...including from PFLP and others considered "moderate" and on the "left"
Before Haniyeh could swoop back into the West Bank on the back of some kind of long slow hostage release where Hamas would release one hostage a week or one a month...Haniyeh met with an accident in Tehran and was killed.
This DERAILS the Tehran plan that came along with Oct. 7. Iran's plan was to use Oct. 7 as the first shot in a large regional war that was designed to bring about a new regional and new world order, part of the multi-polar world Iran is working on with China-Russia-Turkey.
Turkey was playing a key role, preparing the way to also push for Hamas to take power in the West Bank with Russian and China's backing. Now Haniyeh is gone. The other Hamas leaders in Doha don't have the clout.
Who else is left? Sinwar, Marzouk, Ghazi Hamed, Mahmoud Zaher, Khaled Meshaal, Zaher Jabareen, Basem Naim, Osama Hamdan, Mahmoud Zaher, Sami Abu Zakhri...

Haniyeh had support and respect of other groups and even regional leaders. He was known. His removal, removes a key person who might have led Hamas back to power.
The real story of the elimination of Haniyeh is not about the ceasefire talks or necessarily defeat for Hamas in Gaza, it's actually about the day after and not having Hamas take over the West Bank with any kind of popular leader.
also this guy, Khalil al-Khayya
If you’d like to know the background and story behind Oct 7 and how we got here, as well as more about Iran’s plans, you can check out my just released book on the war that also looks at Iran and Hamas’ plans

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 10
The Norwegian Refugee Council put out a statement saying "Gaza: Al-Mawasi strikes show ‘humanitarian zones’ are in name only"...but what I'd like to know is why the entire statement doesn't reference Hamas at all. Hamas is the one who sent commanders INTO THE humanitarian zone. It's Hamas activist that shows humanitarian zones are in name only. Not Israel's REACTION.Image
When I got the statement from them, I thought it's possible they didn't mention Hamas, but what about "armed groups" which is the usual Orwellian phrase used by NGOs...and it's not in there either. Nor is the Orwellian "militant." No mention at all.
This is how NGOs distort what happens in Gaza. They pretend this is a completely one sided conflict. There is no "Hamas" and no "armed men" and no "militants." It's just Israel and all Gazans are portrayed as civilians.
Read 11 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 10
Every single time in Gaza that the local Hamas-run authorities allege a massacre took place, it ends up being smoke and mirrors, where they purposely pump out false numbers to create headlines and get the UN and other countries to condemn...and then later it turns out the numbers are much lower and many casualties are likely Hamas members.
This is part of a whole ecosystem in Gaza that has been hijacked by Hamas. It has taken over hospitals, schools, shelters and now is using the humanitarian zone to operate. Wherever there are civilian institutions or anything linked to the UN or NGOs, Hamas is there and Hamas turns it into a node of its control.
This isn't like Hamas used a few schools or a few mosques, it is systematic. Hamas has a map of the schools and universities, mosques and shelters and UN facilities and all these are targeted by it to be exploited.
Read 18 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 8
A rare terror attack at Allenby bridge, from Jordan. Not a good development.

IDF: "Following the initial report, a short while ago a terrorist approached the area of the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the truck, and opened fire at the Israeli security forces operating at the bridge. The terrorist was eliminated by the security forces, three Israeli civilians were pronounced dead as a result of the attack. IDF soldiers were dispatched to the scene and are currently operating to rule out the suspicion of the truck being rigged with explosives, further details to follow."
Key elements here that are concerning: The suspect was armed and opened fire. This is part of the larger context of smuggled weapons that have become a threat.
There are several routes of destabilization now that have taken place regarding Jordan. The Iranian-backed role from Syria of drug smuggling and now arms smuggling into the West Bank.
Read 11 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 5
This is a great example of how intl orgs manipulate information in this conflict. This report is about the West Bank but it’s basically a version in miniature of how reports on Gaza are manufactured in
The main way that they irresponsibly report details is by classifying every Palestinian male gunmen as if they are a civilian. However when Israeli security forces or police are killed they are specified as Israeli “forces.”
This creates the illusion that Israel is only engaged in killing civilians. They don’t report what both sides say, only that Palestinians are killed, they never make any attempt to verify if they are gunmen affiliated with various groups.
Read 11 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Sep 1
From the first day it was clear that a message to Doha that it would lose its "major non-NATO ally" status and face consequences for hosting Hamas, whose leaders sat in Doha since Oct. 7 calling for more attacks and coordinating with Iran and Iranian proxies...would have produced results.
Remember the first weeks after Oct. 7, how Hamas released four women, two of them elderly, likely at the behest of Doha to show that Doha could get back US citizens and elderly vulnerable people. All that the West had to do was keep up the pressure.
Instead ten months have gone by with endless "thanks" to Doha and appeasement of Iran and Iranian proxies. The Red Sea was handed to the Houthis. Hezbollah rained down rockets on northern Israel. Doha got endless adoration for stalling.
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Aug 28
Reuters has a new report from Gaza "Hungry Gazans face crippling price rises as war rages"...the report looks at how costly many products are in Gaza. This has been common since early in the war. Why? Because Hamas and armed gangs it empowers steal the aid and re-sell it.
"Prices of basic commodities have more than quadrupled since the conflict began, piling pressure on families already traumatized"...

Where do the commodities come from? Many of them come from humanitarian aid that is supposed to be provided to people for FREE...but which the NGOs and intl community allows to be stolen as part of a multi-decade partnership with Hamas.
"Where are the governments? Where are the people? They are supposed to watch out for us, to have mercy on the people. Let me tell you something -- yesterday I slept hungry," one person is quoted as saying.

Good question. The Hamas government that the intl community empowered for years and the UN worked with...has done this to Gaza. The UN has not monitored how aid is stolen by armed men who hijack trucks.
Read 24 tweets

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