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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jul 31 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
INSIGHT into why the loss of Haniyeh matters most of all for Hamas. Hamas wanted to leverage Oct. 7 to come to power in Ramallah. The Iranian axis was working to bring Haniyeh and Hamas to power and replace the PA. China was brokering the talks with the 14 factions to accomplish it
Ankara and Doha were working closely to coordinate this goal. The reason Doha dragged out the hostage talks was to bring Hamas more clout and enable it to survive in Gaza and then get a deal that would let it release hostages slowly, to take over the West Bank.
Haniyeh was key to the Hamas plans. It knew he had popularity in the West Bank and among other Palestinian factions. There were increased whispers among the Palestinian factions that they could work with him...including from PFLP and others considered "moderate" and on the "left"
Before Haniyeh could swoop back into the West Bank on the back of some kind of long slow hostage release where Hamas would release one hostage a week or one a month...Haniyeh met with an accident in Tehran and was killed.
This DERAILS the Tehran plan that came along with Oct. 7. Iran's plan was to use Oct. 7 as the first shot in a large regional war that was designed to bring about a new regional and new world order, part of the multi-polar world Iran is working on with China-Russia-Turkey.
Turkey was playing a key role, preparing the way to also push for Hamas to take power in the West Bank with Russian and China's backing. Now Haniyeh is gone. The other Hamas leaders in Doha don't have the clout.
Who else is left? Sinwar, Marzouk, Ghazi Hamed, Mahmoud Zaher, Khaled Meshaal, Zaher Jabareen, Basem Naim, Osama Hamdan, Mahmoud Zaher, Sami Abu Zakhri...

Haniyeh had support and respect of other groups and even regional leaders. He was known. His removal, removes a key person who might have led Hamas back to power.
The real story of the elimination of Haniyeh is not about the ceasefire talks or necessarily defeat for Hamas in Gaza, it's actually about the day after and not having Hamas take over the West Bank with any kind of popular leader.
also this guy, Khalil al-Khayya
If you’d like to know the background and story behind Oct 7 and how we got here, as well as more about Iran’s plans, you can check out my just released book on the war that also looks at Iran and Hamas’ plans

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 19
Here is a question. Medical charities that work in Gaza and NGOs such as the ICRC should have all asked for access to the hostages. It's likely that through international mediation they could have gotten access to the hostages. But have you noticed that none of the NGOs or the intl community ever even tried to do this?
There was no loss to Hamas to permit access to the hostages by NGOs or the ICRC. It wouldn't change the terms of any deal. In fact it might have strengthened Hamas hand by showing that some of the hostages are healthy.
A country or NGO that had brokered and gotten this access would have gotten a lot of support. There were a lot of opportunities for this. But it wasn't done. And it doesn't appear Israel or the US or others pressed enough for this. Why?
Read 18 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 19
Overnight the Houthis launched a missile at central Israel and Israel responded with airstrikes. Here is how it unfolded
At 2:28am sirens sounded across central Israel Image
The IDF said:

Sirens sounded in numerous areas in central Israel following a projectile that was launched from Yemen, details to follow.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 18
What is the “pro-Palestinian front”? I would think being pro-Palestinian would mean helping build universities and improving infrastructure while working toward two states. What does this have to do with Assad and backing Iran and Hezbollah, who have done nothing but use Palestinians, usually facilitating arms transfers and encouraging them to fight so they lose chances at statehood
I think we have to analyze, unpack and challenge the theory about the “pro-Palestinian” crowd in the west, many of whom only cheer on Palestinian “resistance” which brings disasters. They never cheer on Palestinians who build a university or build something. But if they fight and a building is destroyed in the battle then some westerners living comfortable lives will cheer
The real story is that some of those pro-Palestinian activists in the west are mostly using them in a proxy war against Israel. But it’s not about Palestinians. If you say “there will be a Palestinian state tomorrow and peace” that’s not the goal.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 17
Some people see Oct 7 as primarily linked to the Iran-backed axis. However, in my view it’s much more closely linked to the long-term goal of Ankara and Doha. Both host Hamas and backed Oct 7. Both are western allies which gives Hamas much more clout than Hezbollah or the Assad regime had
Iran’s goal in backing Hamas was to exploit the Israel-Palestinian conflict to have a “foot” within what it believed was a popular Arab and “Sunni” cause. It already had PIJ as a proxy, it wanted to grow outside this narrow niche. To do that it promised to knit Hamas into its network of proxies
The Houthis joined this because it was convenient for them and Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias did the same, against their own best interests probably. But for Ankara and Doha October 7 is THE cause. It’s not just an exploitation, it’s the main goal
Read 13 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 16
The Al-Hol test is going to be an interesting one. There are a lot of people who used to be very critical of the SDF detention of ISIS members there. These types of people usually were sympathizers either with Ankara or HTS. Now HTS is in power. So logically they should want Al-Hol handed over to Damascus. But I bet they will think twice about this.
Let's review the backstory here. In 2019 ISIS was defeated by the SDF in Syria east of the Euphrates. ISIS didn't fight to the end, it knew the US-led Coalition won't massacre the last ISIS members, so they actually surrendered in masses. Thousands of them, including many foreign fighters and their families.
The foreigners included those who had bragged about joining ISIS in 2014-2015, they even proudly bought Yazidi slaves and in some cases killed them. This was an absolutely evil group but they had the privilege to surrender and not be treated the way they treated others.
Read 15 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Dec 16
The Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) at the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) "announces today (Monday) the completion of a series of cumulative deals with Elbit Systems for the supply of advanced communication systems to the IDF, totaling approximately $130 million (about half a billion shekels)."

Photo Credit: Elbit SystemsImage
"The Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) at the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) announces today (Monday) the completion of a series of cumulative deals with Elbit Systems for the supply of advanced communication systems to the IDF, totaling approximately $130 million (about half a billion shekels)."-IMOD
This comes after a $40 million purchase of drones (mostly smaller drone systems) from Elbit
Read 5 tweets

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