On Thursday (Aug 1) I’ll talk about how we use the findings to empower patients, clinicians, health administrators, and scientists to accelerate progress on the airborne transmission of COVID, healthcare quality, and patient safety.
#CovidIsAirborne
The U.S. is hovering around 900,000 daily infections.
Nearly 2% of the U.S. population is actively infectious with COVID. Ultimately, such infections are expected to result in >40,000 new daily #LongCovid cases.
#YallMasking?
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In the rising 9th U.S. Covid wave, we have higher transmission than 69% of the pandemic, lower than during 31% of the pandemic.
In a deck of cards, imagine the J, Q, K, & Ace as days with higher transmission, all other cards the days with lower transmission. 2/
How many people will you interact with this week? Here are the chances at least one of those people is infectious with Covid.
20 people? --> 1 in 3 chance
100-300 on an airplane? --> 85-99% chance
Wear a well-fitting high-quality mask (respirator) to avoid breathing virus. 3/
You probably saw this week's NEJM article on #LongCOVID. We did a special section on it in this week's PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Report (pgs 6-8).
THREAD of tables. 🧵🔢
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Details:
Our model continues to provide estimates of Long COVID cases that will ultimately result from each day’s infections.
We provide a credible interval that 5-20% of infections will result in Long COVID.
This week, Al-Aly and colleagues reported in the New England Journal that in the more recent era of the pandemic, vaccinated individuals have a 3.5% chance of developing Long COVID from a particular infection.
They focused on medically documented new serious health conditions. We continue to view 5% as a useful lower bound for two reasons.
Long COVID chances were higher in unvaccinated individuals in their study, and there were no analyses based on time since last vaccination.
With many Americans still unvaccinated and many not vaccinated in the past year, the true estimate for a 2024 infection could well surpass 5% for a medically documented new serious health condition.
Moreover, Long COVID is a heterogeneous condition, and many cases are likely not medically documented, especially at the less debilitating end of the spectrum.
The following tables show the risk of ever developing Long COVID from an infection assuming 3.5%, 5.0%, and 20.0% rates.
These statistics document the seriousness of Long COVID with Americans getting infected nearly once a year (average of 12.5 months by our estimates).
However, it is also important to know that some effects are enduring, and others more likely to improve, so many with Long COVID will improve.
Many will also have repeated bouts of Long COVID, likely with different phenotypes.pmc19.com/data/
If you assume 3.5% of people get Long COVID per infection, the risk grows sizably with reinfections, which are happening nearly once per year. Avg of 9 infections/American the next decade.
In the previous Tweet, we note how 3.5% is an obvious underestimate.
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Based on that 3.5% estimate, a more realistic low-ball estimate of serious long COVID is 5-7%, given that not all serious new health conditions are documented in medical records & rates are higher among those unvaxxed or not recently vaxxed.
Transmission continues to decline. About 1 in 161 people in the U.S. are infectious, the lowest levels since July 1. Transmission levels are higher than during 27% of the pandemic, but a good time to catch up on delayed care. 1/4
I have some concerns about Biobot's real-time data quality at the moment. Their real-time data have over-reported levels the past 8 weeks (11% last week, previously 6%, 10%, 7%, 5%, 9%, 4%, 5%) relative to later corrections. Huge bias!
2/4
Qualitatively, the over-reporting in real-time data lead me to believe there's a 50-50 chance we see a May "wavelet" versus continued decline for a couple months. Some of the county-level Biobot data seem implausible (e.g., levels of "3" in Mason County, WA, but others too). 3/4
31 Reasons Why the New 1-Day COVID Isolation Policy is Wrong
#1
Experts in modeling and testing know that people are infectious with COVID for an average of 7 days, with substantial variability around that average.
#2
People use defense mechanisms to temporarily avoid the death anxiety evoked by thinking of COVID. The too-short 5-day iso was an example of this (see final example).
Such defenses provide temporary relief and are almost always harmful long-term.