Javier Corrales Profile picture
Aug 1 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Why should the world focus on Venezuela? What the opposition has demonstrated is historic, with implications for the future of liberty in the world. Let me explain. Thread
1/ The Venezuelan elections were conducted with the most obstructionist rules and norms imaginable. Everything was designed to supress the vote. All the tactics used by autocrats to crush the opposition in elections were used, and then some.
2/ These rules and norms included:
- explicit bans on candidates, especially the front-runner
- interventions of parties to get rid of their leaders (a type of nationalization of parties),
- harassements on reporters;
- restrictions on airtime for the opposition
3/ There is more:
- creating fake opposition candidates,
- plastering fake candidates on the ballot, with the wrong party logos, to create confusion
- restrictions on campaign finance
- using armed civilians to harass protesters
- making huge oil deals prior to the election
4/ - attacks on businesses offering services during campaign rallies,
- arresting campaign officials
- arresting ruling party members who criticize.
- banning intl observers
- not updating the electoral registry
- placing voting centers in hard-to-reach places, etc.
5/ And all of this happened before election day, where the fraud reached new heights, including denying the opposition the tallies produced by voting machines and not disclosing the actual numbers.
6/ And yet, the democratic forces prevailed in the election--and prevailed in a massive way. We don't often see democratic movements come out so on top after these many obstacles were thrown at them.
7/ We have not seen too many democratic triumphs of this magnitude, in this kind of environment, during this democratic-backsliding era. This was a showing for the world to see: despite obstacles, mobilizing the vote against a terror machine is possible.
8/ Jul 28 was the example that democrats worlwide in autocratizing settings needed to see.
9/ The example was so huge that it forced the government to go where it never wanted to go: to take off its "popular" facade, its democratic masquerade, and come out as the monster that liberty-defenders worldwide always knew it to be.
Maduro, acting on behalf of all autocrats in the world, knows perfectly well how historic and world-impacting his loss was for autocracies around the globe, and how important it is for his world movement to crush this democratic example, one more time.

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More from @jcorrales2011

Aug 1
Ahora en español: ¿Por qué debe el mundo prestarle atención a Venezuela? Lo que demostró la oposición es histórico, con consecuencias para el futuro de la libertad en el mundo. Lo explico. 🧵
1/ Las elecciones en Vzla se realizaron bajo las reglas y normas más obstruccionistas imaginables. Todo fue diseñado para suprimir el voto. Todas las tácticas empleadas por autócratas para aplastar a la oposición se utilizaron, y fueron inclusive más lejos.
2/ Dichas reglas y normas consistieron en:
- inhabilitar a candidatos, sobre todo, a la más competitiva
- intervenir en los partidos y substituir sus directivas (un tipo de expropiación de partidos)
- hostigamiento de la prensa
- restringirle a la oposición acceso a los medios
Read 12 tweets
Jul 29
A primer on how repression in Venezuela works, as I understand it. It's important to know this sytem to understand why the regime feels it can suppress the possible uprising. See thread. Image
Vzla has one of the most repressive apparatuses imaginable.
Unlike what Max Weber suggested, the Venezuelan state does not have a monopoly of violence under one unit, but rather, it supports a collection of violent actors, some official, many non-official, each with a significant degree of autonomy to act
Read 10 tweets
Jul 29
Here's the list of international observers in Venezuela which did not go because they were disinvited by the Venezuelan government:
1 the EU
2 Delegations from allied nations: Bra and Col
3 Representatives from Arg's expresident A Fernández (also a Maduro ally).
4 All invitees from the opposition
Maduro did allow limited visits from:
1) The UN: A team of four (limited to providing the Secretary-General with a confidential report)
2) from the Carter Center: a team of only a few experts, so small that it won't be able to "assess the voting, counting, and tabulation."
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11
Re Ecuador and Gangs. Here's why it is so difficult to address the security threat posed by gangs anywhere in Latin America. Gangs combine power assets associated with traditional security threats, but with innovations. Thread.
Until the 1980s, the most important secular threats against the state were: 1) the military, which could always produce a coups; 2) insurgents, which were in open warfare against many states; and 3) landed elites, which had privilege access to dollars with their exports
Today's gangs combine a little bit of each, and more.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 3, 2023
Thoughts on Venezuela’s foreign policy and Guyana. The concept of petro-aggression was best established by Jeff Colgan. How does Venezuela fit the theory? Pretty well, with caveats. See thread. Image
Venezuela as a democratic petro state, 1960s to 1990s, had one of the of the most pro-democracy foreign policies in the Americas. Peak moment: Venezuela’s role in the Contadora efforts toward Central America. Oil alone therefore is not aggressive. Image
Under Chavismo, however, everything changed. While the country never started any wars, it adopted what I would call soft aggression.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 17, 2023
Top 11 signs of democratic backsliding, as per Autocracy Rising #Amazon . Sorry I couldn't reduce them to 10. Here you goa.co/d/dzaLBEG
1) Asymmetrical party system fragmentation. The ruling party becomes united behind the president; opposition parties collapse or multiply. No APSF, no backsliding
2) Special powers. President will demand special powers to deal with "crisis X." May try changing the constitution. President claims all reforms will make country democratic for the first time. Emphasis on "for the first time."
Read 12 tweets

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