All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes checked off. 1. President thinks he is saving the country. nytimes.com/2025/02/15/us/…

Some people keep saying, let's solve the Venezuelan crisis with domestic institutions. We have to be honest. Maduro's institutions have yielded the worst human security crises in Latin America since 2013, and among the top in the world in the 21st c. Here's the list 1) Electoral crises (2018-2024)
2) Repression crises (2014, 2017, 2020-22, 2024)
3) Economic collapse (close to 75% decline since 2013)
4) Drug-crime boom (this started under Chávez)

The International Relations of Venezuela's impasse. The Maduro govt is kept in power, in part, because of its coup-proofing, but also because of its international allies. Who are these allies and what are they defending in Venezuela? Thread 1) Transnational organized crime: defending the only territory in Latin America where the DEA does not operate.

Ahora en español: ¿Por qué debe el mundo prestarle atención a Venezuela? Lo que demostró la oposición es histórico, con consecuencias para el futuro de la libertad en el mundo. Lo explico. 🧵 1/ Las elecciones en Vzla se realizaron bajo las reglas y normas más obstruccionistas imaginables. Todo fue diseñado para suprimir el voto. Todas las tácticas empleadas por autócratas para aplastar a la oposición se utilizaron, y fueron inclusive más lejos.

Why should the world focus on Venezuela? What the opposition has demonstrated is historic, with implications for the future of liberty in the world. Let me explain. Thread 1/ The Venezuelan elections were conducted with the most obstructionist rules and norms imaginable. Everything was designed to supress the vote. All the tactics used by autocrats to crush the opposition in elections were used, and then some.

A primer on how repression in Venezuela works, as I understand it. It's important to know this sytem to understand why the regime feels it can suppress the possible uprising. See thread. Vzla has one of the most repressive apparatuses imaginable.

Here's the list of international observers in Venezuela which did not go because they were disinvited by the Venezuelan government: 1 the EU
2 Delegations from allied nations: Bra and Col
3 Representatives from Arg's expresident A Fernández (also a Maduro ally).
4 All invitees from the opposition

Re Ecuador and Gangs. Here's why it is so difficult to address the security threat posed by gangs anywhere in Latin America. Gangs combine power assets associated with traditional security threats, but with innovations. Thread. Until the 1980s, the most important secular threats against the state were: 1) the military, which could always produce a coups; 2) insurgents, which were in open warfare against many states; and 3) landed elites, which had privilege access to dollars with their exports

Thoughts on Venezuela’s foreign policy and Guyana. The concept of petro-aggression was best established by Jeff Colgan. How does Venezuela fit the theory? Pretty well, with caveats. See thread. Venezuela as a democratic petro state, 1960s to 1990s, had one of the of the most pro-democracy foreign policies in the Americas. Peak moment: Venezuela’s role in the Contadora efforts toward Central America. Oil alone therefore is not aggressive.

Top 11 signs of democratic backsliding, as per Autocracy Rising #Amazon . Sorry I couldn't reduce them to 10. Here you goa.co/d/dzaLBEG 1) Asymmetrical party system fragmentation. The ruling party becomes united behind the president; opposition parties collapse or multiply. No APSF, no backsliding

Some reflections on the Milei phenomenon in Argentina, which is really, reflections on the newcomer phenomenon in Latin American politics. 8/8 1. The newcomer phenomenon is not that new. We have seen newcomers running for office since the late 1990s (thank you Peru).

Thank you everyone for your likes and RTs. Here's the promised summary thread. Autocracy Rising a.co/d/gnkoRDC #Amazon via @Amazon 1 This book is about how Nicolás Maduro reinvented authoritarianism for the 21st century (with implications for Max Weber's argument, see last thread).

AMLO continues his attack on Mexico's electoral insitutute (INE). This is very serious. Thread. In a press conference, AMLO said the aim is to ensure the INE is “no longer in the hands of the antidemocratic, corrupt oligarchy.” He is engaged in defunding and defamation.

The Colombian election is both reaffirming and defying major trends in Latin American politics.🧵 It’s reaffirming
The Classic penchant for strongman politics. Make no mistake about it. Both candidates have a proven autocratic style of decision-making, which people are clamoring for (unfortunately).

I think we have great language to describe the repression in Cuba. See thread. It’s white supremacy, because key decision makers are white males in a mostly nonwhite country. It’s neocolonialist because it defends to this day the Soviet economic model, itself inspired by two white Europeans, Marx and Engels.