While almost the entire world is discussing the delivery of the first F-16s to Ukraine and news from Venezuela, the behind-the-scenes struggle continues in Russia. Not only is Shoigu's team being cleaned out, but something is also happening to the witnesses in this case.
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Sergei Shoigu is still at large, but the ring around him is tightening. Almost his entire team has either been removed from their positions or is already under arrest. It became known about the arrest of the former head of the branch "Construction Directorate for the
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Central Military District" of the Military Construction Company Sergei Sukhov. At the end of July, military investigators opened a case against him for fraud on an especially large scale. The company's work was supervised by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who
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was arrested in April. Also on July 26, 2024, former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov was arrested in a corruption case. According to Russian media, Bulgakov, using his official position, lobbied for the Russian Defense Ministry to conclude contracts with certain
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commercial entities, and also created a system for supplying low-quality products to Russian troops at inflated prices. The list of Shoigu's team was published on Telegram. 1. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - removed from office; 2. First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan
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Tsalikov - removed from office; 3. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov - removed from office and arrested; 4. Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko - removed from office; 5. Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova - removed from office;
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6. Deputy Defense Minister, retired Army General Nikolai Pankov - removed from office; 7. Deputy Defense Minister, Army General Pavel Popov - removed from office; 8. And the Deputy Defense Minister himself, Army General Dmitry Bulgakov - removed from office and arrested.
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The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Alexander Fomin and the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov remained untouched in the picture. In July, businessman Igor Kotelnikov, accused of bribing
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officials of the Ministry of Defense, died in a pretrial detention center. He was involved in the case of the arrested former Deputy Minister of Defense General Dmitry Bulgakov. A blood clot came off. He was required to testify against Ivanov, Bulgakov and other officials.
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The next day, it became known about the death of the head of the State Expertise Department of the Ministry of Defense of Russia Magomed Khandayev, who was directly subordinate to Timur Ivanov. He died after a visit from security officials. These people could have testified
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against Shoigu's team. There are suggestions that this is an attempt by Shoigu's team to eliminate witnesses. However, this is only guesswork. In any case, Shoigu's team has been cleared out. Shoigu has not yet been arrested, but it is a matter of time and if he is lucky.
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This is only a small part of what is actually happening within the Russian government. There is currently a fierce struggle for vacant positions and and finances that are running out.
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Despite Russia amassing an estimated 50,000 troops in the Kursk region, according to intelligence reports, and Putin's order to return the Kursk region to Russian control before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the Russian counteroffensive is stalling. Putin hopes
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that Trump's arrival will freeze the conflict and he wants a stronger position in the "peace talks" if they take place. South Korean intelligence reports that Russia has deployed South Korean soldiers to the battle in the Kursk region. Russia has also received 170mm M-1978
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Koksan self-propelled howitzers from North Korea. They are based on a German gun given to the Koreans by the Soviets in the past and have an unusual caliber for the Russians. The 170mm caliber used by the "Koksan" is uncommon in Russia's ammunition supply chain, which is
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We should expect the imminent dismissal of Elvira Nabiullina and another increase in the key rate in December. The measures taken by the Central Bank since the beginning of the war served only to postpone the economic crisis that Russia is plunging into. However, it is
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The real rate is even higher. Many have seen photos of butter in a thieves-proof box. Due to the increase in the rate, companies prefer to increase funds in bank accounts and deposits instead of investing them in the economy. Short-term deposits have become popular.
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In general, business funds account for more than a third of all bank liabilities. In January-September, balances in business accounts increased by 3.37 trillion rubles, or 6.2%. For comparison: household funds in banks for the same period increased by 7.09 trillion rubles,
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1/10 The carrot and stick strategy: If Trump truly desires a fair and enduring peace in Ukraine, he must create incentives that encourage Putin to engage in negotiations. This will involve issuing threats. Analysis by @joni_askola
2/10 Individuals who grasp the fundamentals of negotiation realize that you shouldn't concede anything or offer free leverage to the other side before negotiations start. Additionally, successful negotiations depend on the other side's willingness to participate.
3/10 In the context of Ukraine, vowing to halt aid does not incentivize Putin to negotiate; instead, he views it as a chance to expand his territory and strengthen his position for future negotiations.
If Ukraine is forced to give up territory in exchange for peace, this could serve as a signal to China that it can try to seize Taiwan and then bargain with the West for it. Russia also perceives Trump's victory as the fact that the US is now under his control, and this is
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largely an illusion, but now the efforts of the Russian propaganda machine will be turned towards Europe and we should expect an increase in Russia's attempts to split the European Union, countries and society as a whole. Most likely, there will be an increase in the
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number of sabotage, terrorist attacks, protests and other troubles. The collapse of the coalition in the German government could lead to early elections in the Bundestag. The reason was that Scholz the night before dismissed Christian Lindner, the finance minister of
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After Trump's election victory, regardless of his further actions, Ukraine has no choice but to continue the fight for existence and independence. Russia is happy about Donald Trump's election and many hope that Trump will force Ukraine to negotiate and give up its 1/8
territories in exchange for peace. Russia wants a break to build up strength. Ukraine will continue to fight if the US reduces or completely stops aid, and here, first of all, the EU countries should really think about increasing their aid and rearming, but so far most 2/8
European countries do not have strong leaders or they work for the Kremlin, like Orban and Fico. Populists are also gaining strength, as happened with the US. If Trump pursues an isolationist policy, the EU countries should unite around Ukraine and increase aid many times 3/8
Russia is suffering record losses and in October this figure was more than 41,000 people. If Russia continues to advance at this pace, the losses of Russian personnel by the end of December will exceed the total losses of the occupiers in 2022 and 2023. 1/7
It seems that Putin really counts on Trump's victory, hoping that he will stop aid and force Ukraine to negotiate on unfavorable terms for it. The Russians captured Selydove and are advancing on Pokrovsk. However, Russia has thrown all its forces and the problem with 2/7
personnel is brewing more and more. This has not yet greatly affected the situation on the front, but Russia does not have any large reserves in reserve at the moment. It seems that Putin does not have long-term plans in case of Trump's defeat. He has used all channels 3/7