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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Aug 1, 2024 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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While almost the entire world is discussing the delivery of the first F-16s to Ukraine and news from Venezuela, the behind-the-scenes struggle continues in Russia. Not only is Shoigu's team being cleaned out, but something is also happening to the witnesses in this case.
1/12

Sergei Shoigu is still at large, but the ring around him is tightening. Almost his entire team has either been removed from their positions or is already under arrest. It became known about the arrest of the former head of the branch "Construction Directorate for the
2/12

Central Military District" of the Military Construction Company Sergei Sukhov. At the end of July, military investigators opened a case against him for fraud on an especially large scale. The company's work was supervised by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who
3/12

was arrested in April. Also on July 26, 2024, former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov was arrested in a corruption case. According to Russian media, Bulgakov, using his official position, lobbied for the Russian Defense Ministry to conclude contracts with certain
4/12

commercial entities, and also created a system for supplying low-quality products to Russian troops at inflated prices. The list of Shoigu's team was published on Telegram.
1. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;
2. First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan
5/12

Tsalikov - removed from office;
3. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov - removed from office and arrested;
4. Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko - removed from office;
5. Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova - removed from office;
6/12

6. Deputy Defense Minister, retired Army General Nikolai Pankov - removed from office;
7. Deputy Defense Minister, Army General Pavel Popov - removed from office;
8. And the Deputy Defense Minister himself, Army General Dmitry Bulgakov - removed from office and arrested.
7/12

The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Alexander Fomin and the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov remained untouched in the picture. In July, businessman Igor Kotelnikov, accused of bribing
8/12

officials of the Ministry of Defense, died in a pretrial detention center. He was involved in the case of the arrested former Deputy Minister of Defense General Dmitry Bulgakov. A blood clot came off. He was required to testify against Ivanov, Bulgakov and other officials.
9/12

The next day, it became known about the death of the head of the State Expertise Department of the Ministry of Defense of Russia Magomed Khandayev, who was directly subordinate to Timur Ivanov. He died after a visit from security officials. These people could have testified
10/12

against Shoigu's team. There are suggestions that this is an attempt by Shoigu's team to eliminate witnesses. However, this is only guesswork. In any case, Shoigu's team has been cleared out. Shoigu has not yet been arrested, but it is a matter of time and if he is lucky.
11/12

This is only a small part of what is actually happening within the Russian government. There is currently a fierce struggle for vacant positions and and finances that are running out.
12/12

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More from @ArturRehi

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Aug 6

The visit of Witkoff to Moscow will bring absolutely nothing. Trump is still not ready to exert real pressure on Putin. There is a very high probability that after the expiration of Trump’s latest “ultimatum” on August 8, no serious action will follow. It’s more likely that
1/8

pressure will shift toward India, which could hurt Russia, as India—alongside China—remains one of the main importers of Russian oil. It is much harder to apply real tariff pressure on China—it could backfire spectacularly, as China could impose retaliatory tariffs, just
2/8

like it did during the tariff war a few months ago. The problem is that Trump genuinely likes Putin—or more precisely, the image created by Russian propaganda: a strong, decisive leader who rules his country with an iron, authoritarian hand. That’s exactly what Trump aspires
3/8

Read 8 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Aug 5

Indian components continue to be found in Russian attack drones, said Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. "Unfortunately, we are discovering Indian components in Russian attack drones. These are drones used on the front lines and against civilians,
1/8

specifically Shahed/Geran drones. Russia must be deprived of the ability to receive components from other countries to stop the killing of Ukrainians," Yermak noted on Telegram. He added that the purchase of Russian energy resources also amounts to financing the war, which
2/8

does not contribute to peace. In the Hindustan Times article he referenced, it is reported that electronic components manufactured by Vishay Intertechnology and Aura Semiconductor—either assembled or produced in India—have been used by Russia in the production of Shahed-136
3/8

Read 8 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Aug 4

Women are increasingly appearing on the Russian side of the front. But while many women serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other armies around the world, the picture in the Russian army looks a bit different. First of all, women usually hold specific roles — medics,
1/7

drone operators, logistics personnel, etc. — although there are also brigade commanders and even some in infantry, but that’s relatively rare. In Russia, however, women have begun to appear en masse specifically in assault units, serving as frontline stormtroopers. Recently,
2/7

Ukrainian soldiers from the 24th Brigade operating near Chasiv Yar reported a Russian assault that included five women in an assault group. Now, soldiers from the Ukrainian "Spartan" Brigade on the Pokrovsk front have also reported repelling an assault involving female
3/7

Read 7 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jul 1

The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
1/14

that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
2/14

the next 12 months. Unpaid loans are quietly piling up, though this has yet to show in official figures. The agency estimates that bad loans could hit 3.7 trillion rubles — about 20% of the banking sector’s capital. Much of this traces back to the war. Many soldiers received
3/14

Read 14 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 30

According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
1/16

this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
2/16

stalled after just a month. Russia gathered 50,000 troops, but it has no more equipment. Its reserves are nearly depleted, while Ukraine’s arsenal is expanding — its range of weapons is growing, and its capabilities are increasing despite all the challenges with manpower.
3/16

Read 16 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Jun 26

Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia,
1/7

are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid
2/7

threats, which have no borders. For major European countries — France, Germany, and others — the decisive factor was pressure from Trump. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, had not pushed Europe toward a more serious approach to security. While the Baltic states, Poland,
3/7

Read 7 tweets

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