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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Aug 1, 2024 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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While almost the entire world is discussing the delivery of the first F-16s to Ukraine and news from Venezuela, the behind-the-scenes struggle continues in Russia. Not only is Shoigu's team being cleaned out, but something is also happening to the witnesses in this case.
1/12

Sergei Shoigu is still at large, but the ring around him is tightening. Almost his entire team has either been removed from their positions or is already under arrest. It became known about the arrest of the former head of the branch "Construction Directorate for the
2/12

Central Military District" of the Military Construction Company Sergei Sukhov. At the end of July, military investigators opened a case against him for fraud on an especially large scale. The company's work was supervised by former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who
3/12

was arrested in April. Also on July 26, 2024, former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov was arrested in a corruption case. According to Russian media, Bulgakov, using his official position, lobbied for the Russian Defense Ministry to conclude contracts with certain
4/12

commercial entities, and also created a system for supplying low-quality products to Russian troops at inflated prices. The list of Shoigu's team was published on Telegram.
1. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;
2. First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan
5/12

Tsalikov - removed from office;
3. Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov - removed from office and arrested;
4. Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko - removed from office;
5. Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova - removed from office;
6/12

6. Deputy Defense Minister, retired Army General Nikolai Pankov - removed from office;
7. Deputy Defense Minister, Army General Pavel Popov - removed from office;
8. And the Deputy Defense Minister himself, Army General Dmitry Bulgakov - removed from office and arrested.
7/12

The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Alexander Fomin and the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov remained untouched in the picture. In July, businessman Igor Kotelnikov, accused of bribing
8/12

officials of the Ministry of Defense, died in a pretrial detention center. He was involved in the case of the arrested former Deputy Minister of Defense General Dmitry Bulgakov. A blood clot came off. He was required to testify against Ivanov, Bulgakov and other officials.
9/12

The next day, it became known about the death of the head of the State Expertise Department of the Ministry of Defense of Russia Magomed Khandayev, who was directly subordinate to Timur Ivanov. He died after a visit from security officials. These people could have testified
10/12

against Shoigu's team. There are suggestions that this is an attempt by Shoigu's team to eliminate witnesses. However, this is only guesswork. In any case, Shoigu's team has been cleared out. Shoigu has not yet been arrested, but it is a matter of time and if he is lucky.
11/12

This is only a small part of what is actually happening within the Russian government. There is currently a fierce struggle for vacant positions and and finances that are running out.
12/12

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More from @ArturRehi

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Oct 13

Russian Uralvagonzavod - the country’s main manufacturer of railway cars and also tanks (since Soviet times, Russia has had a tradition of dual-purpose factories, where the producer of metal buckets might also make artillery shells) - is switching its civilian workforce
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to a four-day workweek. The change will affect only employees in the railcar production division. They were offered to transfer to “other divisions with active orders,” since the situation is quite different in tank production. Uralvagonzavod, part of the Rostec corporation,
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is Russia’s largest tank manufacturer. After the start of the war, the plant switched to a three-shift schedule, and since August 2022 has been operating around the clock. Russia’s economy is increasingly shifting to a war footing, while its civilian sector is rapidly
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Read 7 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Oct 10

Another sign of growing problems in the Russian economy. Next year, Russia will cut spending on the production and repair of aircraft by one and a half times — from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles. This was reported by The Moscow Times. “The Russian government plans
1/9

to reduce funding for the federal project ‘Production of Aircraft and Helicopters’ by 1.6 times in 2026 - from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles,” the report says. According to the draft of Russia’s new budget for 2026–2028, spending will also decrease in 2027 compared to
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previously planned figures - from 109.7 billion to 86.9 billion rubles (a 21% drop). Funding is expected to slightly increase only in 2028 - to 89.3 billion rubles. The publication notes that the most significant cuts will affect state support for Russian airlines renewing
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Read 9 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Oct 6

Europe still does not fully understand the threat posed by Russia. There has been growing talk of a possible attack on the Baltic states, but in reality, this threat is minimal - and the real danger lies elsewhere. Putin has found a grey zone, and so far it brings far
1/18

greater benefits than any ground operation could. NATO has spent its entire existence preparing for a conventional war with infantry and tanks, but the main threat today is hybrid warfare. There is no need to launch missiles to paralyze airports or completely collapse
2/18

a country's banking or energy system - cyberwarfare is a reality, not a fantasy from Hollywood films. Putin’s goal is to sow discord within Western societies, and hybrid war offers a wide range of tools to achieve that. His main target remains Ukraine, and he is doing
3/18

Read 18 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Oct 3

The Russians carried out the most massive attack on Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure to date, according to Serhiy Koretskyi, head of the Naftogaz Group. “It was a combined strike involving 35 missiles, including a significant number of ballistic ones, and 60 drones.
1/6

Some were shot down, unfortunately not all,” he wrote on Facebook. He specified that the Russians once again targeted Ukraine’s gas extraction facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. As a result of the attack, a significant portion of the facilities was damaged, with
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some suffering critical destruction, Koretskyi reported. Company specialists, together with Ukraine’s State Emergency Service and other agencies, are working at the scene, and efforts to eliminate the consequences of the strike are ongoing. “This is the most massive attack
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Read 6 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Oct 2

Russian actions around NATO borders and within its territories are becoming increasingly aggressive, and talk of a possible Russian attack on alliance members is growing. Russia is testing reactions to provocations, and so far NATO has responded with restraint. This is
1/17

understandable, since a downed aircraft could serve as a casus belli for Russia. Moreover, it will give propaganda an opportunity to call people to rally around the national leader Putin to confront the “NATO threat” with which Russians have been frightened for years.
2/17

However, for dictatorships, a restrained response often serves as a signal to act. There is no doubt that Russia cannot compete with NATO economically or militarily in the long run, but today NATO lags behind both Ukraine and Russia in the tactics of new-generation warfare.
3/17

Read 17 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Sep 29

Russia is frightened by the upcoming potential supply of American weapons, such as Tomahawk missiles, to Ukraine. It's difficult to predict what actions will follow the statements from White House officials, but the shift in rhetoric is indeed alarming Russia. Instead of the
1/6

usual threats Lavrov issued at the UN in response to the plan to shoot down Russian aircraft violating its borders, Peskov was reserved in his comments. "The question remains: who can launch these missiles, even if they end up on Kyiv regime territory? Can only Ukrainians
2/6

launch them, or should the American military do so? Who assigns the targeting missions to these missiles—the Americans or the Ukrainians themselves? And so on. Therefore, a very thorough analysis is needed here. We have certainly heard the statements; they are very serious,
3/6

Read 6 tweets

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