kel xyz Profile picture
Aug 2 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ A New International Money: $ORE v2

“Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.”

- Jeff Bezos

With metas on the verge of exhaust, a new international money emerges.Image
2/ new token distribution mechanisms are always overlooked or even ridiculed at the onset

using proof of work for distribution atop a performant proof of stake chain has the potential to be the next such faded mechanism Image
3/ novel distribution alone isn’t enough. Ore innovates at the cryptography level with DrillX, a new mining algorithm allowing anyone the ability to mine – forever.

Compare that to everything else, where asic miners have priced out regular people – forever. Image
4/ combine that with Solana’s superior speed and cost to transact, and a picture for Ore superiority begins to paint itself Image
5/ on the other side of this bullish picture is inflation. the top-cited risk for this contender money.

with mining emissions extending to the 2060s or 2070s, Ore inflation will be steep upon the v2 launch.

chart via @N8Solomon Image
6/ inflation is a valid concern, but:

the point of maximum opportunity for crypto assets has historically been at the point of maximum marginal inflation.

In order to achieve atypical returns, one must accept atypical risks Image
7/ there’s much more nuance and details to this thesis - please check it out (linked next zeet)

comment or dms open for feedback

huge thanks to the @heliuslabs fam for having me on as a guest! its like seal team solana research over there Image
8/ check out da piece here helius.dev/blog/solana-bu…

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More from @kelxyz_

Dec 11
1/ The Case For Agent Networks To Reach $250b MC

(thread edition)

Those who ultimately shake up an industry are often outsiders who don't know any better.
— Joe LonsdaleImage
2/ A Historic Setup

Visualize the situation months from now and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be.
– Druck

Trump + Sacks in office.
Countries telegraphing BTC interest.
SV funds sidelined on crypto.
100b+ in demand to invest in AI
OTHERS/BTC bouncing off multi year lows.
Exchanges listing everything.

For the next 3-12 months the field looks ripe for drastic alts outperformance, with AI center stage both in and outside of crypto.Image
3/ Agent Networks

These are platforms enabling the creation and/or collaboration of distinctive AI agents or AI-powered applications.

The sector is currently valued at $10b. Matching DeFi’s peak dominance of 5% at a prospective peak crypto market cap of $5T yields a $250b peak valuation for AI.

Leaders could match or exceed DeFi protocol peak valuations at 20b+. My leaders as of today:

Ai16z
Zerebro
Alch

Full list viewable here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 25
1/ @TusharJain_'s "4 sources of edge in markets"

Extremely valuable info from Tushar's recent empire pod appearance

Thought I'd list them out + give examples from my investing career on times I've succeeded and failed to align with these sources of advantage
2/ Analytical Edge

The ability to understand tech, mechanisms, or markets to a greater degree than the field

Understanding Solana's tech stack in Q1-Q2 2023 was an analytical edge for me -- the information was widely public, but there was dispersion of interpretation

Conversely, I have no analytical edge with respect to onchain yield farming, so while there are many who have printed via farming, I am not one of them!
3/ Information + Access Edge

"When ppl pick up the phone with a deal, do they call you first?"

I've spent pretty limited time in the private markets, so I've built up limited edge here

This leads me to be far more selective when doing seed deals - I know I'm not near the top of the social metagame

Time will tell, but any returns here for me will be derived from superior analysis rather than superior flow
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27
1/ $LIKE

If it’s not all over, now is the time to be looking for highly asymmetric market opportunities.

I believe @JoinOnly1 presents such an opportunity.

Non advisory thoughts below: Image
Historically, adult content is always one of the first applications to succeed in new mediums: be it the magazine, the internet v1, streaming, and so on.

In addition to succeeding first, adult content platforms succeed big. Image
Businesses like those above and Only Fans have been able to make billions — with a B — off this with incredible margins and predatory business tactics.

A wise (bald!) man once said:

Your margin is my opportunity. Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 1
1/ The Real "Next L1 Trade": Memecoin Supercyle

The L1 trade was the best in crypto history.

The memecoin trade - popularized by @blknoiz06, @0xLawliette, @intuitio_ + others, is arguably the next.

Best memecoins to 20-500x from here, leaving the world in shock.Image
2/ Historic Parallels

Back in 2016, @jmonegro authored the most profitable thesis in crypto history: "Fat Protocols"

Ethereum was ~$1b mc

Fast forward to 2018, and on the back of ETH's incredible 2017 run, a new class of "alt-L1s" launched at extremely reasonable valuations

Most, even early investors, faded them.

Study Multicoin's fellow early Solana investors, many of whom sold their SOL to Kyle and Tushar below 10-50c several times.

Those sellers experienced immense pain when SOL went to $1b MC -- just like the pain posters today who sold millions worth of WIF for the price of a two night stay at the Wynn.

Thing is, SOL went a lot higher than $1b.

The real pain was yet to come.

Similarly, today we see a world in which:

- Doge/Shiba ran last cycle leaving the world in disbelief
- A new class of alternative memecoins launched through 2022-2023 at very low valuations
- They melted faces with WIF and BONK going to 1b+ and many others
- Early buyers sold to higher conviction buyers for nothing
- Few outside of the highest conviction players seem to be betting on massive continuation at a venture scale from here
- Is the real pain yet to come?

Most here are eager to call tops, not 50xs.

Most VCs are sidelined, unable or unwilling to buy (barring a few early examples like @Rewkang buying TRUMP).

The intellectuals disdain or disregard the memes, not so unlike the disdain for L1s many years ago.Image
3/ Attention

Fat protocols was a prediction of value flow in blockhain networks.

Fat memecoins is a prediction of attention flow.

In an era where even "real" investors don't care about true value - evidenced by widespread low float gigantic valuation early investor unlock schemes -

Attention is all you needImage
Read 12 tweets
Jun 27, 2023
1/ @solana is the most contentious topic in all of crypto

some like, many hate

took a stab at reframing the narrative so that the many may reconsider

high level overview of 30 pages on sol below - including a direct comparison btwn sol & eth + intro valuation stuff for sol
2/ as bill "slick willy" clinton once said: it’s the costs, stupid

solana’s state compression offers perpetually low asset issuance costs

afaik its the only way to run web2 biz models on chain without spending Masayoshi Son levels of cash

nobody else does this
3/ rpc providers are crucial for compression to fully function

to that end @heliuslabs has killed it, with heavy contributions to compression as well as other areas of solana

+ respect to @0xMert_ and co.
Read 15 tweets
Dec 15, 2022
1/ Despite being one of the most talked about ecosystems, the @solana ecosystem is also one of the most misunderstood.

We set out to understand the real state of the Solana ecosystem - the results of @JamesTrautman_ and I’s analysis form our:

"Solana Ecosystem Overview" 🧵 Image
2/ If you rely only on FUD or pure hopium, this thread probably isn’t for you. If not, read on.

But first: special thanks to @0xMert_, @7LayerMagik, and many others for their feedback during the creation of this overview. Image
3/ Our analysis separated Solana into the protocol and app levels.

Protocol level: Discuss tech initiatives, network health, protocol infra

App level: Look at DeFi, TIPIN networks, NFTs, and Gaming

Bonus Note: A Look at Investors

Summaries on each below.
Read 23 tweets

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