“Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.”
- Jeff Bezos
With metas on the verge of exhaust, a new international money emerges.
2/ new token distribution mechanisms are always overlooked or even ridiculed at the onset
using proof of work for distribution atop a performant proof of stake chain has the potential to be the next such faded mechanism
3/ novel distribution alone isn’t enough. Ore innovates at the cryptography level with DrillX, a new mining algorithm allowing anyone the ability to mine – forever.
Compare that to everything else, where asic miners have priced out regular people – forever.
4/ combine that with Solana’s superior speed and cost to transact, and a picture for Ore superiority begins to paint itself
5/ on the other side of this bullish picture is inflation. the top-cited risk for this contender money.
with mining emissions extending to the 2060s or 2070s, Ore inflation will be steep upon the v2 launch.
chart via @N8Solomon
6/ inflation is a valid concern, but:
the point of maximum opportunity for crypto assets has historically been at the point of maximum marginal inflation.
In order to achieve atypical returns, one must accept atypical risks
7/ there’s much more nuance and details to this thesis - please check it out (linked next zeet)
comment or dms open for feedback
huge thanks to the @heliuslabs fam for having me on as a guest! its like seal team solana research over there
Those who ultimately shake up an industry are often outsiders who don't know any better.
— Joe Lonsdale
2/ A Historic Setup
Visualize the situation months from now and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be.
– Druck
Trump + Sacks in office.
Countries telegraphing BTC interest.
SV funds sidelined on crypto.
100b+ in demand to invest in AI
OTHERS/BTC bouncing off multi year lows.
Exchanges listing everything.
For the next 3-12 months the field looks ripe for drastic alts outperformance, with AI center stage both in and outside of crypto.
3/ Agent Networks
These are platforms enabling the creation and/or collaboration of distinctive AI agents or AI-powered applications.
The sector is currently valued at $10b. Matching DeFi’s peak dominance of 5% at a prospective peak crypto market cap of $5T yields a $250b peak valuation for AI.
Leaders could match or exceed DeFi protocol peak valuations at 20b+. My leaders as of today:
Extremely valuable info from Tushar's recent empire pod appearance
Thought I'd list them out + give examples from my investing career on times I've succeeded and failed to align with these sources of advantage
2/ Analytical Edge
The ability to understand tech, mechanisms, or markets to a greater degree than the field
Understanding Solana's tech stack in Q1-Q2 2023 was an analytical edge for me -- the information was widely public, but there was dispersion of interpretation
Conversely, I have no analytical edge with respect to onchain yield farming, so while there are many who have printed via farming, I am not one of them!
3/ Information + Access Edge
"When ppl pick up the phone with a deal, do they call you first?"
I've spent pretty limited time in the private markets, so I've built up limited edge here
This leads me to be far more selective when doing seed deals - I know I'm not near the top of the social metagame
Time will tell, but any returns here for me will be derived from superior analysis rather than superior flow
If it’s not all over, now is the time to be looking for highly asymmetric market opportunities.
I believe @JoinOnly1 presents such an opportunity.
Non advisory thoughts below:
Historically, adult content is always one of the first applications to succeed in new mediums: be it the magazine, the internet v1, streaming, and so on.
In addition to succeeding first, adult content platforms succeed big.
Businesses like those above and Only Fans have been able to make billions — with a B — off this with incredible margins and predatory business tactics.
The memecoin trade - popularized by @blknoiz06, @0xLawliette, @intuitio_ + others, is arguably the next.
Best memecoins to 20-500x from here, leaving the world in shock.
2/ Historic Parallels
Back in 2016, @jmonegro authored the most profitable thesis in crypto history: "Fat Protocols"
Ethereum was ~$1b mc
Fast forward to 2018, and on the back of ETH's incredible 2017 run, a new class of "alt-L1s" launched at extremely reasonable valuations
Most, even early investors, faded them.
Study Multicoin's fellow early Solana investors, many of whom sold their SOL to Kyle and Tushar below 10-50c several times.
Those sellers experienced immense pain when SOL went to $1b MC -- just like the pain posters today who sold millions worth of WIF for the price of a two night stay at the Wynn.
Thing is, SOL went a lot higher than $1b.
The real pain was yet to come.
Similarly, today we see a world in which:
- Doge/Shiba ran last cycle leaving the world in disbelief
- A new class of alternative memecoins launched through 2022-2023 at very low valuations
- They melted faces with WIF and BONK going to 1b+ and many others
- Early buyers sold to higher conviction buyers for nothing
- Few outside of the highest conviction players seem to be betting on massive continuation at a venture scale from here
- Is the real pain yet to come?
Most here are eager to call tops, not 50xs.
Most VCs are sidelined, unable or unwilling to buy (barring a few early examples like @Rewkang buying TRUMP).
The intellectuals disdain or disregard the memes, not so unlike the disdain for L1s many years ago.
3/ Attention
Fat protocols was a prediction of value flow in blockhain networks.
Fat memecoins is a prediction of attention flow.
In an era where even "real" investors don't care about true value - evidenced by widespread low float gigantic valuation early investor unlock schemes -