It's only 2-3 months in and elizaOS suffers from constant "testing in production", which allows shit bots to dominate attention.

I believe this will cause many to miss the forest for the trees.

A framework (re: platform) for open agent deployment that can:

- plug into an ever-increasing count of data and model providers on the backend,
- allow for seamless agent to agent communications,
- and provide cryptoeconomic liquidity on top

will be of exponentially increasing long term value in our opinion. Incredibly, UNI –– a token so valueless the investors are still clamoring for a fee switch to this day –– peaked at 42B FDV while ETH, its underlying chain, was at~500b

UNI had hit 28B FDV while ETH was only 150B FDV –– almost 20% of the underlying L1 value.

This is the high watermark of what's been possible in the past.

Though toly has often said he wishes for 99 Solana-based applications to flip Solana....

1/ Happy new year's eve internet brothers, sisters, friends.

And even the enemies.

With great reluctance, a deeply personal story:

On walking through the valley of the shadow of death, fighting for a dream, and betting $1,000,000 on the next generation. 2/ Reasons

I'm sharing this with you today for many reasons.

Because many people in my DMs are walking through this valley today. Down and almost out.

Because some of those are genuinely suicidal.

But also, because everybody has a dream.

And because, however slim, there's a chance that the following may help somebody out there achieve theirs.

Please don't mistake this post as an attempt to gain anything else.

Quite frankly, I'd really rather not talk about this stuff at all.

But somebody has to, less the narrative remains framed on total avarice in pursuit of androgynous APs and reasonably sized condos alone.

1/ The Case For Agent Networks To Reach $250b MC

(thread edition)

Those who ultimately shake up an industry are often outsiders who don't know any better.
— Joe Lonsdale 2/ A Historic Setup

Visualize the situation months from now and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be.
– Druck

Trump + Sacks in office.
Countries telegraphing BTC interest.
SV funds sidelined on crypto.
100b+ in demand to invest in AI
OTHERS/BTC bouncing off multi year lows.
Exchanges listing everything.

For the next 3-12 months the field looks ripe for drastic alts outperformance, with AI center stage both in and outside of crypto.

1/ A New International Money: $ORE v2

“Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.”

- Jeff Bezos

With metas on the verge of exhaust, a new international money emerges. 2/ new token distribution mechanisms are always overlooked or even ridiculed at the onset

using proof of work for distribution atop a performant proof of stake chain has the potential to be the next such faded mechanism

1/ @TusharJain_'s "4 sources of edge in markets"

Extremely valuable info from Tushar's recent empire pod appearance

Thought I'd list them out + give examples from my investing career on times I've succeeded and failed to align with these sources of advantage 2/ Analytical Edge

The ability to understand tech, mechanisms, or markets to a greater degree than the field

Understanding Solana's tech stack in Q1-Q2 2023 was an analytical edge for me -- the information was widely public, but there was dispersion of interpretation

Conversely, I have no analytical edge with respect to onchain yield farming, so while there are many who have printed via farming, I am not one of them!

1/ $LIKE

If it’s not all over, now is the time to be looking for highly asymmetric market opportunities.

I believe @JoinOnly1 presents such an opportunity.

Non advisory thoughts below: Historically, adult content is always one of the first applications to succeed in new mediums: be it the magazine, the internet v1, streaming, and so on.

In addition to succeeding first, adult content platforms succeed big.

1/ The Real "Next L1 Trade": Memecoin Supercyle

The L1 trade was the best in crypto history.

The memecoin trade - popularized by @blknoiz06, @0xLawliette, @intuitio_ + others, is arguably the next.

Best memecoins to 20-500x from here, leaving the world in shock. 2/ Historic Parallels

Back in 2016, @jmonegro authored the most profitable thesis in crypto history: "Fat Protocols"

Ethereum was ~$1b mc

Fast forward to 2018, and on the back of ETH's incredible 2017 run, a new class of "alt-L1s" launched at extremely reasonable valuations

Most, even early investors, faded them.

Study Multicoin's fellow early Solana investors, many of whom sold their SOL to Kyle and Tushar below 10-50c several times.

Those sellers experienced immense pain when SOL went to $1b MC -- just like the pain posters today who sold millions worth of WIF for the price of a two night stay at the Wynn.

Thing is, SOL went a lot higher than $1b.

The real pain was yet to come.

Similarly, today we see a world in which:

- Doge/Shiba ran last cycle leaving the world in disbelief
- A new class of alternative memecoins launched through 2022-2023 at very low valuations
- They melted faces with WIF and BONK going to 1b+ and many others
- Early buyers sold to higher conviction buyers for nothing
- Few outside of the highest conviction players seem to be betting on massive continuation at a venture scale from here
- Is the real pain yet to come?

Most here are eager to call tops, not 50xs.

Most VCs are sidelined, unable or unwilling to buy (barring a few early examples like @Rewkang buying TRUMP).

The intellectuals disdain or disregard the memes, not so unlike the disdain for L1s many years ago.

1/ @solana is the most contentious topic in all of crypto

some like, many hate

took a stab at reframing the narrative so that the many may reconsider

high level overview of 30 pages on sol below - including a direct comparison btwn sol & eth + intro valuation stuff for sol 2/ as bill "slick willy" clinton once said: it’s the costs, stupid

solana’s state compression offers perpetually low asset issuance costs

afaik its the only way to run web2 biz models on chain without spending Masayoshi Son levels of cash

nobody else does this

1/ Despite being one of the most talked about ecosystems, the @solana ecosystem is also one of the most misunderstood.

We set out to understand the real state of the Solana ecosystem - the results of @JamesTrautman_ and I’s analysis form our:

"Solana Ecosystem Overview" 🧵 2/ If you rely only on FUD or pure hopium, this thread probably isn’t for you. If not, read on.

But first: special thanks to @0xMert_, @7LayerMagik, and many others for their feedback during the creation of this overview.

Is Opensea web3’s eBay? OS has been dominant, but disruption by unbundling may be on the horizon.

@natashajuliakim first introduced the argument in March - it has only grown stronger since.

What’s behind it? Join me in…

“Exploring the Unbundling Opensea Thesis” Short history of eBay for the other 12 yr olds here:

- Dominant marketplace for everything from 95 - 2013

- Individual categories on eBay targeted by specialized marketplaces

- Combined value of specialized marketplaces like AirBNB, Etsy, and others now worth more than eBay

We thought NFTs couldn’t get more speculative.

Enter JPEG’d.

@JPEGd_69 is primed to launch a new peer-to-protocol NFT lending primitive.

The speed it brings could unlock the NFT lending market.

Fast Leverage + NFTs = 🤯🤯🤯

1/8 As mentioned, JPEG’ features a peer-to-protocol mechanism design.

This comes with speed advantages over other NFT lending platforms, which have typically used peer-to-peer designs (h/t @nichanank)