Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 2 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
This is an amazingly useful thread by @DanielR33187703 on a shot down Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone with a precision guided munition.

There is a lot that stands out to a WW2 EW historian.

WW2 Radio Tech in Ukraine🧵
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I've been studying WW2 radio navigation/radio intercept systems for about nine years, on and off.

Adcock antenna showed up a great deal in that period tech in both applications.

We seem to have one below.⬇️

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Adcock/Watson-Watt Radio Direction Finding array tech has evolved & merged into the Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA). A solid state technology that is used in most GPS receivers.

The thing is, mimicking WW2 tech with modern electronics is both light & cheap.

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When you study stuff like this document (left).⬇️

It is both hard to miss when WW2 radio tech show up in this war or the technological tricks being used on drones.

Adcocks can generate directional beams for navigation or sharp nulls for direction finding.
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The VHF band goniometer adcock antenna on the Baba Yaga tells us a great deal, including this text from the link:

"The Adcock has better null definition than a loop, and the Adcock includes high angle nulls."

4/
w8ji.com/Goniometer%20a…
BLUF:

The Adcock antenna meant the Baba Yaga was designed to fly at higher altitudes to avoid not only small arms, but the horizontal main lobe beams of Russian jammers.

It is also capable of following a VHF guidance beam from a high altitude radio relay drone back
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...to Ukrainian lines to get around GPS jamming.

This underlines that electronic jamming is a 'saving throw" that can be and is regularly defeated by intelligently applied tech (nulls) and kinematic tactics (fly a beam above the jamming main lobe).

6/
If a drone flies high, it will miss a lot without a precision guided munition, which is what you are seeing at right below.

@DanielR33187703 called the seeker optical/laser spot seeking. I don't think so. See the photo at left and note the differences.

I think it's a...

7/
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...DSMAC seeker.

Digital scene matching automatic correlation is a mid-1970's tech applied to the T-hawk missile that has since gotten incredibly cheap to the point that a drug cartel could implement in a drone with a competent electrical engineer.

8/
The off the shelf commercial thermal imager you see below would fit that Baba Yaga PGM for a DSMAC or contrast seeker.

Both a drone dropped DSMAC or simple contrast seeker are radio jamming proof.

9/

So, Ukraine has developed a radio/GPS jamming proof drone, with a radio jamming proof PGM to do battlefield air interdiction in a heavy GPS jamming environment that US field artillery PGM's cannot.

10/
Nov 2023 to August 2024 is enough time for the Jamming proof & PGM equipped Baba Yaga to evolve in reaction to the jamming of the 155mm M982 Excalibur GPS guided shell...

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defencesecurityasia.com/en/russian-ew-…
...as well as the GMLRS rocket whose accuracy started to be degraded in May 2023

The inability of ballistic artillery to either kinematically avoid radio jamming or use cheap commercial electronics leaves it at a cost/development time...


12/cnn.com/2023/05/05/pol…
...disadvantage compared to drones.

Only mil-spec electronics can survive a 155mm tube firing.

GMLRS isn't as disadvantaged as a gun tube, but commercial off the shelf electronics are simply orders of magnitude easier to adapt on to drones.

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What this Baba Yaga and its PGM represents is that Ukrainian drones now surpass Western field artillery point destruction firepower in a peer-to-peer, GPS denied & heavy R/F jamming environment.

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Field artillery will only have a mission going forward as a rapid delivery method of cluster munitions for the "area affect firepower" mission.

AKA US Army Artillery branch survival requires firing the JAG officers in the field artillery command posts.

15/15 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 3
Water & disease, disease & water, they are the alpha and omega of warfare in Crimea.

The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵

From the link:

"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...

2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".

Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.

Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 1
This is the visual of when Biden Administration "Escalation Management" Foreign Policy had its final credibility collapse.

Kinda like the Biden Administration US Secret Service credibility just did...

1/
...with this video of the Trump Shooter moving across the roof in Butler PA in plain view of the counter-sniper team to the side of & above former Pres. Trump.

The failure of that team to direct Trump to be moved has no good explanation & many bad.

2/
I greatly fear a political Rubicon was crossed in both the Wagner in Venezuela & Butler assassination attempt videos.

G-d help us all. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30
This is "the Collapse of Expertise" for an entire US Federal Agency.

The USSS failure to tie into local law enforcement is so far below the professional standards of any US law enforcement agency it amounts to institutionalized incompetence.

It's all very Russian.

1/
USSS management culture is gangrenous with incompetence.

The only answer is a new Federal executive protection agency with strict statutory exemptions from Federal disparate impact legal doctrine and none of the current USSS managers.

2/
The Federal executive protection mission is too important to be left to an incompetent Federal bureaucracy whose management has been institutionally pithed out by "political theater" hiring.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
I am strongly recommending reading this @wartranslated post where Alexander Kharchenko detail the collapse of RuAF motor transportation to the front lines.

FPV drones are strangling RuAF logistics in the "last 10 km" now, compared to one km in July 2023.

FPV shaping🧵
1/
Image
Alexander Kharchenko validates my earlier posts about there being no evidence of dedicated Russian logistics elements.

When Kharchenko talks about the need for heavy multicopter drones and uncrewed ground vehicles to move through the FPV blockade...
2/
...he says the following:

"And this should be done by specially trained advanced logistics teams."

"Advanced Logistics" is a term Kharchenko uses to describe crossing the last 10 km from trucks to tenches.

This underlines mobik "animal labor logistics"...

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Read 17 tweets
Jul 27
I can't begin to tell you how unprecedented this statement is in the history of warfare:

Quote from Nataliia Kalmykova: "We have a very high percentage of quality rehabilitation and return to service. This is also noted by our

AFU casualty ratio🧵
1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
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...Western partners, those countries that have never had such an experience,such a war as ours. These are over 75% of the wounded [who return to active duty]. They have suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity."

2/
Wounded in addition to the dead are functions of prompt medical care & medical evacuation logistics.

Late 20th century combat casualty ratios are ~4 wounded for every death.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27
The primary 21st century counterbattery threat has quickly evolved into being FPV drones:

"Artillery (34) 31 Russian howitzers were damaged counter-battery fire.
27 of which used fpv drones in the counter-battery role, three from shelling."

Drones vs Artillery🧵
1/
According to @RyanO_ChosenCoy in a @secretsqrl123 space yesterday, the top end Ukrainian FPV's based in 13 inch FOV frames cost $4,000m have a 50 km one way range and has a jamming proof 5 km thermal/machine vision homing.

2/
To pull off a 50 km shot will require a few line of radio repeater drones, but this is becoming easier as Ukraine has begun deploying its Mission Control module (MCM) C4ISR technology.

3/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
Read 19 tweets

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