Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 3 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Water & disease, disease & water, they are the alpha and omega of warfare in Crimea.

The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵

From the link:

"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...

2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".

Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.

Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Crimea is in the middle of a the 4-month heatwave minus Dnipro diverted water.

Dehydrated elderly and children are horribly vulnerable to heat deaths and the cholera in Simferopol hospitals means Crimea is short of clean water.
Professor Yevhen Khlobystov, member of the expert council of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center for Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development of Crimea says the following:

"Freshwater crisis may come to Crimea in a month or 1.5 months...

4/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...of a certain level of precipitation. Then reservoirs may dry up and a water crisis may unfold."

He also added:

"The uncontrolled population drop and a massive military call-up of the peninsula leads to the fact that the military receives water in priority...

5/
...with no restrictions. If water shortage occurs, it will primarily affect the average residents of Simferopol and Central Crimea. The ‘authorities’ in Crimea will be to the last storing water in Sevastopol, where the military is based, as well as...
6/
...in the resorts of Yalta, Yevpatoria, and Feodosia, so that even a small number of vacationers are forced to go through inconvenience over water supply."

7/
The kicker is that front line Russian military units being supplied from Crimea and Southern Russia are currently getting 1 liter of water a day in 35 to 40 Deg. C heat.

And this has been confirmed from other Russian sources.
8/
Russian telegram channels reported RuAF cholera & typhoid outbreak in Kherson in late June 2024.

People need to watch Russian social media closely for further signs clean water shortages in occupied Ukraine, particularly reports of water borne diseases.

9/9 Image

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 2
This is an amazingly useful thread by @DanielR33187703 on a shot down Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone with a precision guided munition.

There is a lot that stands out to a WW2 EW historian.

WW2 Radio Tech in Ukraine🧵
1/
I've been studying WW2 radio navigation/radio intercept systems for about nine years, on and off.

Adcock antenna showed up a great deal in that period tech in both applications.

We seem to have one below.⬇️

2/ Image
Adcock/Watson-Watt Radio Direction Finding array tech has evolved & merged into the Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA). A solid state technology that is used in most GPS receivers.

The thing is, mimicking WW2 tech with modern electronics is both light & cheap.

3/

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Read 17 tweets
Aug 1
This is the visual of when Biden Administration "Escalation Management" Foreign Policy had its final credibility collapse.

Kinda like the Biden Administration US Secret Service credibility just did...

1/
...with this video of the Trump Shooter moving across the roof in Butler PA in plain view of the counter-sniper team to the side of & above former Pres. Trump.

The failure of that team to direct Trump to be moved has no good explanation & many bad.

2/
I greatly fear a political Rubicon was crossed in both the Wagner in Venezuela & Butler assassination attempt videos.

G-d help us all. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30
This is "the Collapse of Expertise" for an entire US Federal Agency.

The USSS failure to tie into local law enforcement is so far below the professional standards of any US law enforcement agency it amounts to institutionalized incompetence.

It's all very Russian.

1/
USSS management culture is gangrenous with incompetence.

The only answer is a new Federal executive protection agency with strict statutory exemptions from Federal disparate impact legal doctrine and none of the current USSS managers.

2/
The Federal executive protection mission is too important to be left to an incompetent Federal bureaucracy whose management has been institutionally pithed out by "political theater" hiring.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
I am strongly recommending reading this @wartranslated post where Alexander Kharchenko detail the collapse of RuAF motor transportation to the front lines.

FPV drones are strangling RuAF logistics in the "last 10 km" now, compared to one km in July 2023.

FPV shaping🧵
1/
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Alexander Kharchenko validates my earlier posts about there being no evidence of dedicated Russian logistics elements.

When Kharchenko talks about the need for heavy multicopter drones and uncrewed ground vehicles to move through the FPV blockade...
2/
...he says the following:

"And this should be done by specially trained advanced logistics teams."

"Advanced Logistics" is a term Kharchenko uses to describe crossing the last 10 km from trucks to tenches.

This underlines mobik "animal labor logistics"...

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 27
I can't begin to tell you how unprecedented this statement is in the history of warfare:

Quote from Nataliia Kalmykova: "We have a very high percentage of quality rehabilitation and return to service. This is also noted by our

AFU casualty ratio🧵
1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
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...Western partners, those countries that have never had such an experience,such a war as ours. These are over 75% of the wounded [who return to active duty]. They have suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity."

2/
Wounded in addition to the dead are functions of prompt medical care & medical evacuation logistics.

Late 20th century combat casualty ratios are ~4 wounded for every death.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27
The primary 21st century counterbattery threat has quickly evolved into being FPV drones:

"Artillery (34) 31 Russian howitzers were damaged counter-battery fire.
27 of which used fpv drones in the counter-battery role, three from shelling."

Drones vs Artillery🧵
1/
According to @RyanO_ChosenCoy in a @secretsqrl123 space yesterday, the top end Ukrainian FPV's based in 13 inch FOV frames cost $4,000m have a 50 km one way range and has a jamming proof 5 km thermal/machine vision homing.

2/
To pull off a 50 km shot will require a few line of radio repeater drones, but this is becoming easier as Ukraine has begun deploying its Mission Control module (MCM) C4ISR technology.

3/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
Read 19 tweets

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