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Vicente Valentim Profile picture
@ValentimVicente
Aug 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
The UK is facing a terrible wave of anti-immigration protests.

It is plausible to think that this is partly the result of elite rhetoric normalizing far-right behavior.

1/8
As other folks have pointed out, there is a clear similarity between the claims of protesters and elite rhetoric over the last few months.



2/8
The protests follow an election where the far right made important gains (Reform was third most voted), and where the mainstream right (Conservatives) came, themselves, very close to becoming a far right party.

3/8
In previous work, I have argued that elections where the far-right is successful (like this one) can normalize public displays of far-right views.

Citizens who had these views already come to feel more comfortable acting on them after the election.



4/8 journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
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In another paper, we (w/ @dziblatt & @EliasDinas) show that mainstream right politicians engaging in radical-right rhetoric (which also happened in this campaign) further contributes to this process of normalization.



5/8 osf.io/preprints/osf/…
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More directly to these events, in my forthcoming book I find that normalization correlates with far-right protests.

The more individuals feel comfortable publicly expressing far-right views, the more xenophobic protests there are.



6/8 academic.oup.com/book/57946

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It is hard to pinpoint rigorously what caused this specific set of events, and there may definitely be multiple causes.

But it is certainly plausible that the increase use of far-right rhetoric by politicians may have contributed.

7/8
For a more thorough review of recent literature on normalization, see this excellent thread by @edenhofer_jacob



8/8

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More from @ValentimVicente

Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Mar 11
The Portuguese election yesterday highlights a common trend: support for the far right often grows very fast.

We know, however, that people don't change their minds so fast. What can explain this speed of growth?

I deal with this question in my book, coming out this year.

1/5 Image
In the book, I argue that this is because the growth of the far right is to be understood (at least partly) as a process of normalization.

Many people had far right views already, but they did not express them because they feared social ostracism.

2/5
As a consequence, the far right had mostly low skill leaders, who were unable to mobilize even voters who privately agreed with them.

But, once skilled politicians do join the far right (like Ventura in Portugal), they are able to attract support from these voters.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Mar 10
Portugal has a very important legislative election taking place today.

Here’s a thread with some context and a few things to look for:

1/9
The previous government was headed by PS (center left), who won an absolute majority in 2022.

The government was involved in a number of scandals from early on, and came to an end when PM Costa resigned after being made suspect in a corruption case.

2/9
The two main contenders for this snap election are the incumbent PS and AD (center-right coalition of PSD and CDS-PP).

AD has been fairing better in the polls and is the likely winner, although that is not certain and surprises may happen.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Apr 3, 2023
This weekend, thousands of citizens in several Portuguese cities protested for the right to housing.

edition.cnn.com/2023/04/02/eur…

What effects can we expect from this kind of protest?

Thread with some findings from political science, with links to the references:

1/6
First of all, demonstrations can generate interest in the topic of the protest and increase discussions around it, as shown by @FraileMaldonado, Jiménez Sánches and Lobera.

academic.oup.com/poq/article-ab…

2/6
Likely as a consequence of this, protests can move public opinion closer to the position of the protesters, as shown by this work by @leeannbanaszak and @HeatherOndercin:

meridian.allenpress.com/mobilization/a…

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Jan 31, 2022
The Portuguese legislative election of yesterday postponed an important question for the country in the long term.

With the radical-right no longer possible to ignore, how will patterns of alternation look like?

1/7
One possibility is that the PS (center left) becomes a pivotal party governing sometimes with its left, sometimes with its right (PSD).

This seems unlikely because PS is a major party (just won an absolute majority) and this would mean they would always be in power.

2/7
Another possibility is that a party like the Liberals grows enough to play that role, becoming junior partner in governments of both PS and PSD.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Jan 30, 2022
It seems that the center left PS has won the legislative election in PT. They may even have an absolute majority.

Third place is still up for grabs, with four parties that can take it.
publico.pt/2022/01/30/pol…
It will prob be a long night before we know but for now looks like this may be a huge victory for the socialists. Latest polls were basically predicting a tie between them and social democrats (center right).
It's also a defeat for the Left Bloc and the Communists, that initial budgets of the previous government.

Costa's message during the campaign was to blame this snap election on them, and that may have worked.
Read 8 tweets
Vicente Valentim Profile picture
Jan 28, 2022
Portugal is having a legislative election this Sunday. It's likely the most competitive and important in many years.

It is unclear who will win and, with increasing fragmentation, what the actual government scenarios are.

Here's a summary of what's at stake.

(1/9)
The previous gov was a minority socialist (PS center left) gov of Antonio Costa that fell when the Communist Party and Left Bloc, that had supported the gov in the past, joined right-wing parties in rejecting the budget for 2022.

(2/9)
PS initially seemed like they would have an easy victory and were even betting on an absolute majority.

But latest polls show a tie between them and the Social Democrats (PSD, main center-right party).

(3/9)
Read 10 tweets

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