🚨 My book is out today: 🚨

2024 has been full of elections. In many, radical-right politicians made important electoral gains.

My book hopes to contribute to debates on the rise of these politicians by putting forward a theory around social norms.

1/23 academic.oup.com/book/57946
One pattern with radical-right politicians is that support for them often grows very fast.

This makes radical-right parties seemingly come “out of the blue” and makes it harder to foresee their success.

2/23

The UK is facing a terrible wave of anti-immigration protests.

It is plausible to think that this is partly the result of elite rhetoric normalizing far-right behavior.

1/8 As other folks have pointed out, there is a clear similarity between the claims of protesters and elite rhetoric over the last few months.



2/8

https://x.com/ValentimVicente/status/1819716014755487826

The Portuguese election yesterday highlights a common trend: support for the far right often grows very fast.

We know, however, that people don't change their minds so fast. What can explain this speed of growth?

I deal with this question in my book, coming out this year.

1/5 In the book, I argue that this is because the growth of the far right is to be understood (at least partly) as a process of normalization.

Many people had far right views already, but they did not express them because they feared social ostracism.

2/5

Portugal has a very important legislative election taking place today.

Here’s a thread with some context and a few things to look for:

1/9 The previous government was headed by PS (center left), who won an absolute majority in 2022.

The government was involved in a number of scandals from early on, and came to an end when PM Costa resigned after being made suspect in a corruption case.

2/9

This weekend, thousands of citizens in several Portuguese cities protested for the right to housing.

edition.cnn.com/2023/04/02/eur…

What effects can we expect from this kind of protest?

Thread with some findings from political science, with links to the references:

1/6 First of all, demonstrations can generate interest in the topic of the protest and increase discussions around it, as shown by @FraileMaldonado, Jiménez Sánches and Lobera.

academic.oup.com/poq/article-ab…

2/6

The Portuguese legislative election of yesterday postponed an important question for the country in the long term.

With the radical-right no longer possible to ignore, how will patterns of alternation look like?

1/7 One possibility is that the PS (center left) becomes a pivotal party governing sometimes with its left, sometimes with its right (PSD).

This seems unlikely because PS is a major party (just won an absolute majority) and this would mean they would always be in power.

2/7

It seems that the center left PS has won the legislative election in PT. They may even have an absolute majority.

Third place is still up for grabs, with four parties that can take it.
publico.pt/2022/01/30/pol… It will prob be a long night before we know but for now looks like this may be a huge victory for the socialists. Latest polls were basically predicting a tie between them and social democrats (center right).

Portugal is having a legislative election this Sunday. It's likely the most competitive and important in many years.

It is unclear who will win and, with increasing fragmentation, what the actual government scenarios are.

Here's a summary of what's at stake.

(1/9) The previous gov was a minority socialist (PS center left) gov of Antonio Costa that fell when the Communist Party and Left Bloc, that had supported the gov in the past, joined right-wing parties in rejecting the budget for 2022.

(2/9)