Thread by @Inkvisiit

Made some rudimentary calculations on how the Russian 2024 summer offensive compares to the Ukrainian 2023 summer offensive in terms of territorial change of Russian controlled area on our map. 1/

It’s quite clear that the Russian pace of advance this spring and summer has been grindingly steady with few notable intensifications thrown in the mix. As for the Ukrainian summer offensive, its clear that almost all meaningful progress in terms of territory captured 2/

was made within the first two months of the offensive with the initiative slowly turning over to the Russians in September of 2023. Russian controlled area shrunk by total of ~321,5 square kilometers between June 1st and September 1st 2023: average of 24,73 km2 per 7 days. 3/

In comparison between May 3rd and August 2nd 2024 the Russians have captured ~591,70 square kilometers: average of 45,51 km2 per 7 days. Gains from Kharkiv offensive amount to roughly ~186,2 km2. 4/

After a several slow weeks in June, the Russian offensive is once again picking up speed. This time most of this progress is concentrated in few sections of the front in Donetsk region: notably the Ocheretyne-Prohres salient, and the Toretsk-Niu York sector. 5/

Lastly few caveats to close of this short thread: Number used in these calculations were derived from the size of the “Russian-occupied area” polygon on our map. This polygon includes some rather large bodies of water, especially around Crimea. 6/

Therefore, the total “Russian-occupied area polygon” is not geographically accurate of Ukrainian surface land area occupied by Russian forces. But the net changes of that polygon are accurate in respect to the changes in frontline situation. 7/

Choosing a different periodization could also affect the data for questions like “which period has seen the most gains by Russia”. The following weeks will show, if the situation begins to stabilize or if the Russians are able to further capitalize on their recent successes. 8/8