Thread by @erinoverbey

a few thoughts on the state of the VP stakes so far…

so i’ve studied political history for yrs & was one of <10% of Americans to correctly predict Trump would win in 2016

i believe the Dems VP pick is pivotal in this election & here’s why🧵

first,no one should be under any illusions. this is still, in my assessment, a toss up race. why?

yes,the enthusiasm is currently all on the Dem side, poll numbers showing big increases

but we’re still in a ‘honeymoon stage,’ w/the Dems yet to face an onslaught of attack ads..

my concern lies with the overconfidence i see reflected in the Dem party

Hillary lost in 2016, in part, bc she took her base for granted, ignoring the schisms on the Left & focusing her campaign almost wholly on moderate Repubs & the illusive swing voter

i see parallels here

which is why, in my analysis,the VP pick remains pivotal to this race. Dems continue to underestimate the number of voters-esp WW & WM-who will vote for Trump(again)

this election won’t be won by raging at these voters; it may feel good in the moment but it doesn’t win elections

the Dems urgently need someone in the VP slot w/an ability to articulate a positive vision of America powerful enough to push back the fear mongering & incoming attacks of the right—the ‘performative utterances’ that give Americans permission to give in to their bleakest impulses

i’ve made clear my analysis of Dems’ best picks for VP—Walz or Buttigieg; + Beshear

both Walz & Buttigieg are speaking of Dem policies in ways that are revolutionary—crafting deeply persuasive new arguments on Dem principles like school lunches, women’s privacy, health care, etc

for yrs, the Dem party has appeared from the outside to be stuck in a perpetually reactive state of gridlock—always reacting to any & every manufactured culture war or seemingly ceding ground to the Republican or conservative outrage of the week/month/year

Walz, Buttigieg & Beshear represent a strong departure from thistype of reactive politics—instead each appearing to offer positive,assertive visions ofan America where govt is focused not on perpetual beltway outrage/gridlock but on tangible ways to improve Americans’ daily lives

and i believe it is these kinds of persuasive, positive visions of (& arguments for) America that are a necessary complement to Kamala’s pragmatic leadership style—and will be equally appealing to American voters in november

the Dems imo need to avert what they appear to be on the verge of—which is a proxy battle between the old zombie politics of Clintonian triangulation (ie, appealing to swing voters & independents by pushing offthe Left) & a modern inclusive Dem politics that energizes the base

my assessment of things as they stand now is that if the Dems stick w/this strategy of unifying their base (+ the Left), they will actually draw swing voters & independents to them & have a better chance at successfully creating a winning map

but, more than that, as we look at the horrible hate crimes occurring in the UK & America, and the global atrocities being committed in the Middle East & around the world rn, a deeply positive & forward looking vision for America offers Dems (& the US) a unique opportunity…

it’s an opportunity not only to push back on a rising tide of right wing fascism &bigotry but to offer generations of Americans akind of reset—an assertive vision ofAmerica that doesn’t derive from what we fear but from differences we can appreciate & values that bind us together

*elusive*