Thread by @LarrySchweikart

1) This was precisely what I saw in 2016 that led me to write in OCTOBER that Trump had "won" the election with "between 300 and 320 EVs" (final was 304. You can see the tweet in the endnote of my "How Trump Won" published in 2017 with Joel Pollak.

2) What is "This"?

https://twitter.com/magapolling/status/1820144495830482975

3) Here are some of the shocking numbers:
*In NE2, which Trump lost by 22,000, Rs have already sliced 13,000 off that lead. This is not counting repentant indies or even Ds who see that they screwed up.
*In Maricopa County, the R gains now have MC at R+162,000, or . . .

3) contd . . .
* . . . More than the entire STATEWIDE R lead in 2020. Statewide, now, Rs have an advantage of +260,000 and it grows literally daily. Last week it was increasing at about 400 per day.
*In Clark Co, NV, Rs have slashed the D registration lead there by 4% . . .

3) contd . . .
* . . . and have expanded their lead in Washoe by almost 2 points.
*In NC, the DemoKKKrat lead of over 300,000 in 2020 has now been slashed to only 135,000 . . . and Trump won this state twice DESPITE big D leads.
*In PA, a one-time D registration lead . . .

3) contd . . .
* . . . of 600,000 has been reduced by more than 2/3.
*Even in Maine, Rs have staged significant voter reg gains over Ds.
*FL now has a GOP lead of 800,000--was a D lead 12 years ago.

4) We can't track voter reg in TX, GA, WI, MI because they don't reg by party

5) But the point is, none of these states are going to radically buck the trend. It is more than safe to say that GOP voter reg has increased in almost every state except perhaps Kollyfornia, mainly because so many Rs have fled that state.

6) So what would a good pollster do if confronted by this data, especially when it is ACROSS THE BOARD and not specific to one state?

He would adjust his polling by increasing the #s of Rs in the sample and Rs interviewed.

7) Yet we see just the opposite happening.

8) We see big pollsters like yougov and CBS juicing the D numbers like pollster steroids. D+4, D+5, D+9.

9) It's sheer fraud, designed to make Rs panic and stay home, stop advocating for President Trump, and overall just accept a loss when they will get a win if they stay at it.

10) I'd tell you if the numbers were different. For example, I'll tell you that while the voter reg has moved somewhat in NM, and while Trump's #s with Hispanics have shot up, NM is different because it is comprised of a large group of extremely poor & the Los Alamos/Sandia. . .

10) Contd . . . highly educated whites. This is a difficult nut to crack: not a big middle class and not a big working class.

11) Likewise, Cackles WILL juice the national vote #s a little because she will get enhanced turnout in Kollyfornia, NY, and Illinois.

12) But any garbage about her being ahead in battleground states is cheeta caca. She repels working class of all colors in MI and PA. She can't select a veep who doesn't cost her votes (Shapiro with MN and MI Muzzies, Moonman Kelly with almost anyone).

13) Her difficulty in even finding a running mate should tell you all you need to know about her campaign.

14) Finally, if she's doing as well as the polls say, why are DemoKKKrat insiders such as Ruy Teixeira, James Carville, and many others saying she will lose?

15) Polling is fine, and I am a supporter of good polling. But after being fairly accurate in 2020 (though way LOW for President Trump), many pollsters have now scrapped whatever they were doing and adopted the Michael Crichton poll--make something up.

16) Lastly, polling is only legit if it LINES UP WITH ALL THE OTHER INDICATORS, especially voter registration. It is simply not believable that vastly larger numbers of people are running to register as Republicans so they can vote for Cackles.

17) That falls under "spooge."