1) About 2 weeks out, I still have:
GOP net gains 4-7 in senate (probably 5)
Holds the House in a squeaker (5-8 seat margin).
ALL of these races, except Heitkamp, Cruz, Romney, and Blackburn are gonna be close. It could be exactly like Trump's electoral college:
2) a bunch of states with 50 electoral votes all went Trump's way by narrow margins. But it was the same direction and he was closer to winning MN and NH than Cankles was to winning any of those Trump states.
3) Now, we're looking at 1-4% margins in FL, AZ, NV, MT, MO, IN, NJ, and NJ. I think WV has drifted outside Morrisey's ability to pull it in. Houseley is probably closer in her race than he is in WV.
4) Same with the House: we'll see a lot of races decided by 5%.
1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.
Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.
2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.
3) For example, before a horse race you can poll everyone---including jockeys (who may or may not know something), owners, bettors, whomever. But it's just an opinion.
Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).
4) The sample anymore is almost impossible to get, and certainly you cannot get it by phone only and you cannot get it by "self-reporting." So far, only @PPDNews and Trafalgar have a track record of really getting "likely" voters in the proper sample sizes.
1) Ready for some FL numbers? Ok, the FL history is the Rs tend to lead in absentee ballots, Dems catch up in in-person early voting, Rs then usually lead on election day. So let's compare with 2016, which was a presidential election year with usually a much higher turnout.
1) Let's say for a moment the "secret sting" theory of Sessions/RR/Wray is true.
What has the delay cost us?
2) It has had a MAJOR impact on the lawlessness, mobbing, and rioting of the fascist left.
3) Sessions has done absolutely nothing about the issue of lawlessness.
2) It is crucial that he begin to indict these rioters on federal civil rights violations; shut down antifa as a terrorist organization; and begin prosecuting cities for failing to enforce civil rights laws.
3) His diddling while all this violence goes on is dangerous, and without some sort of legal action against these people, they will only get more violent til people die.
in 2016 "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" in a major, bellwether Ohio county assembled a one of a kind data set.
Ohio law throws anyone who doesn't vote in the previous election into the "unaffiliated" category.
1) In 2012, the "unaffiliated" voters fooled most of us because we thought they were "independents" and Minion was leading with indies by several points.
They were "lazy Ds" who had not voted in the primary because Zero was unopposed.
2) So in 2016, "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" tried to figure out exactly who these "U"s were---Ds or Rs. They looked through EVERY "U" household's voting pattern for the last 20 years and assigned them as Rs, Ds, or actual Is.
Thread two, on political/data developments over the last week.
1) The Senate continues to look good. Obviously ND has been put away. But many of the other races are tight. Blackburn in TN opened up a lead, but people there till me it's still close.
2) I think Rick Scott in FL is polling worse than he is running, and believe he is probably 3-4 points up right now. On the other hand, Testicles in MT is over-polling, but is likely up one or two.
3) Renacci in OH continues to close. My guys think he is down 2 and gaining.
4) If I had to be concerned about one race it would be IN. Braun should have taken the lead by now. I hear he is a mediocre campaigner, and only now started ads. Still, he is in a red state with an anti-Kavanaugh senator. I still think he'll pull it out.
1) Let me sum up many things, much of which you know.
2) Yertle does not have the votes to confirm Judge K, contrary to what it looked like just 12 hours ago. Manchin is as reliable as the Italian Army.
3) So that leaves us with the three RINOs.
4) The painful truth is there is NO leverage at all against Flakey. I just spoke with a woman from his area here in AZ. Local SUPPORTERS are furious with him. These are the people who voted him in originally, both to the House and the Senate.
5) They can't hurt him, Yertle can't hurt him, and Trump really can't hurt him.
Now, realistically, if he EVER wants to work anywhere in the universe of Republican politics again, he has to vote for K. But he may have other plans, may want to go out as McTurd Jr.
1) I drew some gasps when speaking in New Mexico last week and I said (with 100% conviction), it is highly likely that @Kanyewest will be the leading Republican candidate in 2024.
I believe Kanye is already laying the groundwork and making appropriate alliances.
2) My reasoning is that he and Kim have been working closely with the White House on many issues. He is absolutely not dumb. While he had some mental health issues, I think he is overall a smart businessman.
He knows his brand and his audience.
3) I believe as @SHEPMJS notes, he has an arrangement with Trump for support if he brings in a reasonable percentage of black votes in 2020. Don't know what that # would be.
4) Moreover, I do not think that a "traditional" politician, such as Corey BookerT&theMSGs . . .
1) Good article. A couple of points. We "briefly" saw Republicans struggle in 2017 in special state level and a few House elections. This was predictable for a party changing its very character.
2) That appears to have stabilized. But up til a few weeks ago, "stability" still could have resulted in traditional levels of R losses in an off year, meaning possibly the House.
I never bought into the "40-60 seats" baloney, but did think we could lose the House by 1-2 seats.
3) However, what the article fails to mention is that in addition to women staying home for DemoKKKrats, in 2016 black participation fell by 3% in four key states---FL, NC, PA, MI. Literally, Cankles' margin of loss in FL was equal to the number of blacks who stayed home there.
Senate, we gain 5-7 seats. I'm leaning toward OH as a win. Renacci has made up about a point a week on Brown, who now has abuse issues resurfacing.
Told of Renacci, "He just wins. In first race was against entrenched D opponent, beat him.
"Then he was redistricted into another D district and clobbered that guy."
OH has a 300,000 net R registration advantage AFTER allocating "unaffiliated" voters based on previous 16 years' of voting.
In WI looks like with this K backlash Walker will "walk" Vukmir over the line
2) AZ has firmed up. I believe McSally will hold, winning by 4-5. Looks increasingly like Heller will survive. That makes ALL senate wins gravy, and we actually have a long shot at getting 9 for a 60-vote majority.
1) Trump's latest tweet about declassification suggests one of two alternatives.
First, "allies" in Congress think they in fact are gonna hold & that they don't want new issues "jammin' up da brothers" while they keep their seats.
(Those issues being new revelations about the Deep State).
2) They might---"might"---have legitimate concerns that Trump's still somewhat fragile majority would see such releases as impeachment fodder and do not want to fight that battle yet.
1) @rushlimbaugh thinks Ds wouldn't have brought out Balless Edsel without "someone in the bullpen."
2) I'm convinced this all started in July with the letter FinkStink received. At that time, there were many who were claiming Ds would win the Senate
3) Moreover, I don't think FinkStink ever thought they would "get" K on any charges. I don't think that was ever the goal.
Rather, I think the goal at THAT time was to delay, delay, delay until the election when (they thought) the Ds would win the Senate.
4) In this scenario, if the Ds delayed K's confirmation until after the election--and the Ds won--the NEXT step would be to demand further delay, since "the people have spoken" and "it would not be fair for a lame duck senate to confirm K."
1) Here is my theory on what happened with FinkStink's stupid strategy on Judge K.
2) Remember she had the letter in July. Some people (never me) thought the DemoKKKrats could "retake the senate" back in July. No one thinks that now.
3) With that in mind, FinkStink's goal was to delay, delay, delay until Jan. 2019 when the new D senate would be sworn in.
4) I think much of this was in play a long time ago, and was a machine she couldn't shut off. She had to go through with it.
5) I think she probably coordinated with Flakey and he agreed to play along. Now it's obvious it's a crapbomb & the "Four Cuckateers" (Flakey, Corkscrewed, Tom Collins, & MurCowSki) have bailed on the delay plan.
6) I can't tell you how stupid this strategy was from the get go.
1) No GOP didn't turn out in primary. Didn't need to-Already know they will ALL turn out in general to vote for any R-very jazzed. Personally knew many people who blew off primary because they were stoked about voting for any R in the general.
2) 2) VERY confident in 2 House D to R flips pretty confident in a 3rd
3) Pretty high confidence Housely wins the Frankenberry senate seat