Thread by @FionaMullenCY

How do you get to a situation where the Greek Cypriots say there is a date for a #cyprob meeting, the Turkish Cypriots say there isn’t, and the UN apparently confirms there isn’t? My hunches are as follows. 1/ 🧵

As I said in my latest monthly @SapientaCY report published 31 July “It is not unusual for the Greek Cypriots in particular to try to manage expectations by suggesting
that there will be significant developments, even when nothing ultimately materializes.” But 2/

@SapientaCY But I also gave reasons to say something must be afoot. Among the reasons to take seriously was the Greek deputy PM Marinakis. Greece was expecting a “plan”, later clarified as not a “solution plan” as such. 3/ emvolos.gr/synenteyxi-toy…

@SapientaCY Earlier we also had Christodoulides saying bold decisions wd have to be made. He also dropped big hints that the geopolitics meant there was “no choice” but to fix the cyprob once and for all. 4/

@SapientaCY I think the geopolitical reasons are connected with this: no US cavalry to the rescue = “you’re big boys now, sort out your own problems” 5/

https://twitter.com/glindenstrauss/status/1819972947181764981

@SapientaCY Then we get suggestions that the GCs don’t want to do the “hard ask” that would restart #cyprob talks. We know because Greece starts hinting in public about it. 6/ sigmalive.com/news/kypriako/…

@SapientaCY And - always a sure sign they are being asked to make a move that they don’t want - GCs go bananas. Here is a more polite version thereof. 7/

https://twitter.com/zenonastziarras/status/1819753571040055541

@SapientaCY Maybe (ones hopes) TCs also have a big ask to deliver. We don’t know because TR and TCs generally don’t leak like a bucket with 50 holes in it. 8/

@SapientaCY So (my hypothesis): a date is tentatively agreed but dependent on GCs and maybe TCs delivering something. GCs don’t want to, are cornered even by Greece, so what do they do: divert the blame, make the date public, knowing TCs will deliver the required negative response. 9/

@SapientaCY TCs deliver the required response. 10/

https://twitter.com/knews_cy/status/1820099955832258932

@SapientaCY GCs think they are home and dry, have proven they are the good guys until the UN turns round and says “what date?” (This is currently only reported in TC media so we need confirmation direct from UN.) 11/

https://twitter.com/fionamullency/status/1820333117426545002

@SapientaCY Conclusion: we are still a million miles from a #cyprob solution. This still constitutes a high + rising geopolitical risk for all of us. Progress is still subject to the whims of individuals. Change the process. It’s urgent. Find the PDF report here 12/12 cypdc.org/post/civic-ini…

@SapientaCY Postscript

https://twitter.com/cyprusmail/status/1820355683994234956

@SapientaCY @threadreaderapp unroll