Thread by @MattooShashank

India just lost its best friend in Asia

Sheikh Hasina's fall in Bangladesh will a big worry for India

Here's why🧵

So let's recap

Sheikh Hasina has just resigned as Prime Minister of Bangladesh

She's been in office continuously since 2009

But she has been forced from office after massive national protests

These protests were about Bangladesh's national reservation policy

Under this policy, reservations were granted for descendants of 1971 war veterans

This was the war which established Bangladesh's independence

However, this quota was deeply unpopular among students

They said it unfairly rewarded supporters of the Awami League

However, the protests were badly mishandled by Sheikh Hasina's govt

Wings of her Awami League party & security forces cracked down harshly

Large numbers of protesters will killed by security forces in Bangladesh

Hasina also suspended internet services to crush protests

This inflamed popular anger against the Hasina govt

Unhappiness with Hasina has been growing over the last few years

Unemployment is high and the country's economy has struggled

Hasina is seen as authoritarian and her party was widely believed to have rigged the 2024 elections

All of this came together in an explosion of anger against Hasina

As protests grew, her govt responded harshly

Just on Sunday, over 90 people were killed in the protests

But it was clear her government could no longer survive in the face of public anger

Hasina has resigned and the Bangladesh Army will be forming an interim govt

The Army Chief has called for calm and stability

Sources indicate that Hasina is leaving Bangladesh and headed to India

But Hasina's fall is a major concern for India

Hasina has been India's closest geopolitical partner

From economics to counter-terrorism, Hasina has been comfortable working with India in a way few other Bangladeshi leaders have

India also trusts her

Hasina's Awami League is broadly considered pro-India

India has invested a great deal in Hasina

The two countries are working on ambitious connectivity (rail, road, energy) projects to link their economies

Contentious problems over territory and water-sharing were also solved by India and Hasina

Throughout Hasina's political troubles in 2024, India has been seen as pro-Hasina

It pushed America to reduce pressure on Hasina's govt over democracy and human rights concerns

India has also put very little pressure on Hasina despite her growing authoritarianism

Aside from losing its closest partner, India will also be worried about who comes next

The country's other most powerful party is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party

India has had a troubled relationship with the BNP in the past

The BNP was seen as unhelpful to India's security as it refused to track down on militant groups like ULFA

The BNP has also relied on closer ties with Pakistan and China and can be suspicious of India

It has also allied with Islamist groups in the past, which India opposes

If the BNP comes to power, a lot of India's ambitious economic projects could grind to a halt

It could also tilt to China given its historic distrust of India

India's backing of Hasina has also earned it some anger and unpopularity among the country's opposition

With the Army now in control, India will have to see how the situation unfolds

There could be a period of instability as student groups who led the protests have rejected military rule

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