Body blows keep coming for UBI fans. $1k/month transfers had no effect on net worth or credit access. All the money was ploughed straight into consumption, recipients actually went more into debt.
nber.org/papers/w32784
For reference: most spending categories rose by similar percents: UBI recipients did NOT necessarily prioritize immediate needs. In fact, they disproportionately gave their UBI away. Image
Now as an aside.

The average UBI recipient here got $35,000 in total transfers.

They spent $$11,000 of it on increased spending.

They reduce work by $12,000.

That accounts for $23,000.

So their net worth SHOULD have gone up by $12,000!'

Instead it fell $1,000.

????
Did they just.... light $13,000 on fire?

Is the income decline underestimated?

Is the spending increase underestimated?

Did they invest money in terrible assets?

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More from @lymanstoneky

Apr 23
western Med Punics (think Carthaginians) were basically completely genetically separated from Levantine Punics. Image
this kind of casts into doubt some of the argument that Rome's unique advantage was its ability to incorporate disparate peoples via citizenship since this genetic signature is just gonzo, Punics clearly a multiethnic identity despite strong cultural similarity
note this doesn't mean Levantine origin was a lie: if you compare Levantine Punics, Bronze Age Sardinia, and Sardinian Punics, it sure looks like there was geneflow from the Levantine Punic group into Sardinia, and one Sardinian Punic actually has the Levantine-typical type!Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 18
it seems to me many people did not realize that large sections of Decker's post appears to be quotes from founding fathers. i'm not sure how intentional this was on his part but it would have been hilarious watching courts try to be like "quoting the declaration of independence is hate speech"
also i will just lay down a marker:

if any election does not occur on its regularly scheduled day, or if government policies cause voter participation to fall more than 30% as a share of the adult population vs. the average of the last 10 elections

i think that's the line
i just think we should all say these things in public

if a leader suspends elections or widely disenfranchises the electorate, that's it. the system is over, it's time for the second amendment to play its part.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
reminder: there continues to be zero scientific evidence of harms from the covid vaccination
lol at the dumdums responding here

my favorite response is "but Lyman some people had some side effects!"

oh no, side effects! wut will we ever do!

this kind of paranoid safetyism has got to go, folks. we need strong, prosocial, risk-taking behavior, such as getting vaccinated
my second favorite response is, "how dare you say there are no harms, the COVID vaccine, like all vaccines, causes tons of harms!"

ah, i see. telling on yourself there. ya paranoid probably-mentally-ill crunchy wacko.
Read 29 tweets
Apr 10
The primary use of artificial wombs if they become available will not be by women to free themselves of biological burdens and thus attain liberation, but rather will be by men to free themselves of relational burdens and thus eliminate the need for decent treatment of partners.
Yes, there are lots of men who would like to have children and happily hire nannies for them 24/7. I regret to inform you this is indeed A Type of Guy.
1) If it's a manufacturing process it won't say prohibitively expensive
2) Rich men whom nobody will tolerate as a spouse already use adoption and surrogacy to do this, but artificial wombs will remove a key friction
3) Yes, the early versions will be for preemies. Look a step ahead.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 1
Today I am dropping some truth bombs.

We should make seniors pay full freight on property taxes. Image
The relationship between too-low property taxes and bad demographic outcomes is not subtle. The states with low property tax rates have MUCH larger gaps between fertility preferences and outcomes than states with other kinds of low taxes. Image
Tax carveouts for seniors are tax hikes on parents in the trenches raising kids.

Property tax cuts are tax hikes on workers.

Healthy societies reward work and family formation, they don't provide bonus subsidies for 25 years of leisure.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 24
Approximately 15-25% of everything we know about global fertility comes from basically one source: the Demographic and Health Surveys.

The contract funding them seems to have been cancelled.

If you're worried about falling fertility, this is a five-alarm fire. Image
This piece is cowritten by me and @MoreBirths . Our take here is basic: the DHS surveys are a well-run program yielding very clear benefits to the U.S. and are a key tool we have on hand to figure out how to tackle low fertility.

Losing this tool is not good at all.
Obviously, there remain a lot of unanswered questions about the long-run status of USAID-financed programs with contract terminations. It isn't clear which are gone forever, which paused, which will be re-envisioned... but the contract for DHS has indeed been terminated.
Read 7 tweets

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