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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Nov 1

It's clear that @propublica 's strategy is to spam stories of alleged deaths due to abortion bans, and never actually engage with any of the arguments about how they're actually running a cover operation for medical negligence.

From the latest one.

They want to blame Texas' abortion ban for a hospital sending away an actively miscarrying women WHO ALREADY TESTED POSITIVE FOR SEPSIS.

everybody agrees this was a case of the hospital failing to provide basic, obvious standard of care.

nobody has evidence this failure was caused by the abortion law.

and yet you get quotes like this:

Read 7 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Nov 1

Finland's fertility is falling fast.

But why? What's the source of this decline?

To begin with, some basic facts: Finland's total fertility rate was around 1.87 children/woman as recently as 2010. It did NOT decline during the "great recession" after 2007, but actually ROSE.

Since 2019, Finland's fertility has bounced around a lot, but the decline 2019-2024 was just 0.08 children per woman, vs. the decline from 2014-2019 of 0.36. So clearly the pace of decline has slowed, even if not stopped entirely.

But you may wonder: what drove Finland's decline? Did big families get rarer, or did people stop having families at all, or what was it?

Here's parity-specific birth rate indicators:
You can see they all decline after 2010. Here's each indicator, its 2022 value expressed as a ratio of its 2010 value:

You can see that 3rd births rates fell the most, down almost 30%, then 1st birth rates, down about 27%, then 5th, then 4th, then 2nd, down about 15%.

But they're all down. Finnish women became less likely to have an extra birth at every single parity.

What does this look like in terms of total birth count?

Well, it looks like appreciable declines for every birth order. And indeed, births fell 25-33% at every parity.

So did Finland's fertility decline because of a broad-based shift away from kids across all families? Perhaps!

But now let's ask this another way:

Comparing 2010 to 2022 births, what share of the decline in births was 1st vs. 2nd vs. 3rd, etc?

37% of the decline is due to lost first births, 36% second births, 17% third births, 5% fouthr, and 5% 5th+.

So more than a third of the total decline was due to a drop in first births, and more than half was due to a drop in first or second births. Low-parity births accounted for the lion's share of decline.

I think some open questions in the Finnish case are:
1) Why was Finland so resilient to the Great Recession?
2) Why the drop then at 2010?
3) Why was the drop so broadly shared across parities?

For the curious, here's Korea.

Korea's big drop post-2010 coincided with NO CHANGE in rates of progression to higher-parity births! People with 2 did NOT become less likely to go on to 3 (or 4, or 5).

The entire decline was falling rates of progression to 1 and 2.

Read 4 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Oct 31

https://twitter.com/datepsych/status/1851989863580709244

It's possible to be more wrong than this.

But you'd have to really work at it!

https://twitter.com/datepsych/status/1851989863580709244

Let's do some math!

We'll use a case of a country we have a long history of high quality data for: Czechia.

Czechia is also interesting because they've had one of the biggest fertility INCREASES in the industrialized world in recent decades.

We'll start just by asking:
1) How did that increase occur?
and
2) What will future Czech fertility look like if current trends continue?

Read 50 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Oct 25

UN, IHME, VID, all produce population forecasts- and they always seem too optimistic. Human population will start declining much earlier than the UN expects.

This has been obvious for a long time. @jburnmurdoch is right to highlight it--

But why does the error persist?
🧵🧵

You can actually see a defense of the UN's method here:

TL;DR-- the UN's method really is the best-performing forecast method in historic data compared vs. other structural forecasting methods.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

Let's talk about what a structural forecast is.

Basically, we're talking about forecasts which:
1) Do not incorporate any explicit assumptions about GDP or education
2) Use the same method for all countries and periods with no special sauce

Read 15 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Oct 24

Just finished talking on a panel for a nice @BrookingsInst event about REMOTE WORK AND FERTILITY.

Here's a finding I haven't published anywhere on remote work and fertility across 8.6 MILLION employed women in the ACS. Remote-working women have WAY higher birth rates!!!

Link to the @BrookingsInst panel is here: brookings.edu/events/could-a…

Now, note that this effect is plausibly reverse causality: it's very plausible that women work remotely because they had a baby in the past year! Unfortunately ACS is going to be entirely "current work and retrospective fertility."

Read 4 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Oct 23

oh hey the Clark-style malthusian model of the medieval english economy may be totally wrong

Source: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Here's Clark's agricultural wages vs. the new paper's agricultural wages, both vs. English population. I've circled the period of the Black Death. Clark shows a huge wage increase around the Black Death, new paper shows very little increase until a generation or two later.

Read 6 tweets

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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

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