Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 5 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Two additional cities in Russian occupied Eastern Crimea are now reporting Cholera outbreaks in addition to Simferopol and Central Crimea🧵

Dzhankoy and Feodosia in Eastern Crimea on the Russian Army GLOC implies bad s--t, literally, in local water.

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
The real question is this local Cholera or is it being transported via Russian wounded coming from the front lines?🤔

Cholera is resident in shallow Crimean groundwater wells that are not treated.

As there is a shortage of Crimean deep bore water, no reservoir diverted water
2/
...after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and evaporating rainfall reservoir water, all of which have treatment plants.

The odds are that the Russian occupation authorities are using water from local ponds or wells that is infected & are not boiling or treating it.

3/
Russian occupied Crimea is suffering from the early stages of the "1850s scenario," in so many words.

That does not preclude infected WIAs spreading Cholera in unsanitary makeshift hospitals in places like Dzhankoy, which is the RuAF truck logistics node for southern Ukraine.
4/ Image
There are now rolling power blackouts in Crimea because of Ukrainian strikes on thermal power plants in Crimea & the 1 of the 2 Rostov-on-Don NPP reactors being offline from a maintenance casualty.

No power = no water treatment during the blackout


5/
I'm strongly in the "All of the above" reasons for Cholera camp, myself.

Public health in Putin's Russia is a highly corrupt "Pay to play."

Soviet WW2 public health was much better than Putinist Russia because they knew if the rear collapsed, there would be no front.

6/
Soviet WW2 battlefield medicine in Crimea is better than the current RuAF version, come to that.

RuAF medical logistics in Ukraine are a basketcase with shortages of all medical supplies due to continuing FPV motor transport massacres.


7/
Many of the medical staff in Crimea have bugged out since 2015, let alone 2022, especially ethnic Ukrainians.

Russians are suffering a lack of medical expertise, a lack of antibiotics and a lack of diagnostic capability.

8/
It is a perfect storm for disease spread in Crimea.

All of these events have been carefully planned by the Ukrainian General Staff and none of this is an accident.

AFU have always been strategic in their logistical stikes, aiming to cause Russian systemic collapse.

9/9
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 7
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a up to 25K, or small NATO Corps sized, incursion into the Kursk Oblast that is moving between 7 & 10 km a day.

AFU Bde have between 4 to 9 battalions per brigade with 6 Bn as average, so ~18 Bn seem involved.
AFU's Strategic raid🧵
1/

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US made and AFU crewed Stryker & Humvees are in Russia as a part of an AFU multi-domain - that is, air and ground - offensive.

A RuAF conscript regiment -- doing animal labor logistics - was thrown at the assault and shattered. Chechens ran.

Russia's reserves are airpower.
2/ @NOELreports photo of a M1132 Stryker ESV with LWMR mine roller in Russia.
What has been particularly interesting has been the further demonstration of the floating 10 km "FPV Motor Transport Kill Bubble" that extend around AFU Drone-ground teams that has picked off a pair of RuAF tank transporter convoys behind the border.

3/
Read 23 tweets
Aug 5
It looks like the Russian railway's western cassette roller bearing wear out & capability collapse I've said was coming for a couple of years...

...is now arriving.

Assuming this report is true⬇️

1/
In simple terms, we are in August 2024 after this bearing wear out prediction for February 2024.⬇️

This is something I've been expecting to see since September 2022.⬇️

The life of installed 5 million km Western roller bearings are ending for more and more Russian locomotives and rolling stock.

The Russian pattern of the most neglected...

2/
Read 14 tweets
Aug 3
Water & disease, disease & water, they are the alpha and omega of warfare in Crimea.

The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵

From the link:

"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...

2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".

Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.

Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 2
This is an amazingly useful thread by @DanielR33187703 on a shot down Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone with a precision guided munition.

There is a lot that stands out to a WW2 EW historian.

WW2 Radio Tech in Ukraine🧵
1/
I've been studying WW2 radio navigation/radio intercept systems for about nine years, on and off.

Adcock antenna showed up a great deal in that period tech in both applications.

We seem to have one below.⬇️

2/ Image
Adcock/Watson-Watt Radio Direction Finding array tech has evolved & merged into the Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA). A solid state technology that is used in most GPS receivers.

The thing is, mimicking WW2 tech with modern electronics is both light & cheap.

3/

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Read 17 tweets
Aug 1
This is the visual of when Biden Administration "Escalation Management" Foreign Policy had its final credibility collapse.

Kinda like the Biden Administration US Secret Service credibility just did...

1/
...with this video of the Trump Shooter moving across the roof in Butler PA in plain view of the counter-sniper team to the side of & above former Pres. Trump.

The failure of that team to direct Trump to be moved has no good explanation & many bad.

2/
I greatly fear a political Rubicon was crossed in both the Wagner in Venezuela & Butler assassination attempt videos.

G-d help us all. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30
This is "the Collapse of Expertise" for an entire US Federal Agency.

The USSS failure to tie into local law enforcement is so far below the professional standards of any US law enforcement agency it amounts to institutionalized incompetence.

It's all very Russian.

1/
USSS management culture is gangrenous with incompetence.

The only answer is a new Federal executive protection agency with strict statutory exemptions from Federal disparate impact legal doctrine and none of the current USSS managers.

2/
The Federal executive protection mission is too important to be left to an incompetent Federal bureaucracy whose management has been institutionally pithed out by "political theater" hiring.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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