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Glen Peters Profile picture
@Peters_Glen
Aug 6 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Has the land sink collapsed in 2023?

I am not so convinced. The land sink has a lot of variability, mainly due to El Nino, and an El Nino overlapped 2023. So we expect a lower land sink in 2023.

(My estimate assumes the ocean sink was average).

1/ Image
Was 2023 an El Nino year? That is not so obvious...

How does one average the monthly sea surface data to an annual value El Nino index? How does one account for the lag between El Nino and the change in atmospheric CO2 growth?

There is no unique answer to this.

2/ Image
This figure shows the monthly El Nino index annualised with different time lags. 2023 is an El Nino or La Nina, depending on how you average!

@richardabetts & @chrisd_jones use a 9 month lag in their work (which means 2023 was a La Nina)!


3/ metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…
Image
The bars (land sink) coloured by the El Nino index with different lags (3 and 9 months) mean that 2023 is either surprising (weak sink in a La Nina year) or rather mundane (weak sink in a El Nino year).

More disturbing is that the decade trend is slowing...

4/
Image
Image
The ocean sink is less sensitive to El Nino & La Nina, but is also weakening in the last decade. A big concern!

5/
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For completeness, here are the figures for the atmospheric growth. The growth rate has slowed down, but whether that is true despite El Nino is a more difficult question.

Sorry for the complex figures, but they have a lot of information!

6/
Image
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Normalising the atmospheric, ocean, and land sinks by emissions, shows that 2023 has a weak land sink, but well within the variability range over the last decades.

7/ Image
I am not quite convinced that 2023 has had a collapse in the land sink, out of what could have been expected.

@ciais_philippe, @PFriedling, et al. You think 2023 is a collapse?



/8
A final note. If you only consider Mauna Loa, a single site, then the atmospheric growth is more unusual, compared to if you consider the global average. The global average is more meaningful, IMHO.


Though, useful to understand why they differ.

/end
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More from @Peters_Glen

Glen Peters Profile picture
Jun 12
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is no laughing matter, atmospheric N2O has increased 25% due to human activities.

Today @gcarbonproject updates the Global Nitrous Oxide Budget, which helps us understand where the N2O comes from and where it goes.



1/ essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/25…
Image
According to IPCC AR6, N2O caused 0.1°C of the current warming of 1.1°C (not this figure is now higher).

This may sound small, but since N2O is long-lived (like CO2) & primarily comes from agriculture, that 0.1°C will only go up in the future.

2/ Image
There are many sources of N2O, over half of which are natural (soils).

Anthropogenic sources are dominated by agriculture (soils & manure management) & industry (chemicals).

The sink is due to photolysis & oxidation in the atmosphere.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Glen Peters Profile picture
Jun 5
Greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs, again.

The only good news is that Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) regulating under the Montreal Protocol have declined substantially in the last decades.

But what does all this mean for climate?



1/ 🧵 essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/26…
Image
Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.

We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!

Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!

2/ Image
Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.

This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Glen Peters Profile picture
May 9
"Implemented policies result in projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium confidence)"

According to the landmark, widely reported IPCC Synthesis Report published in 2023.


1/ ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Image
If you are surprised by this figure, where the median is 2.5°C (not 3.2°C), then I am curious why you think scientists are so optimistic...

The survey reflects more or less what scientists have been saying for years?



2/ theguardian.com/environment/ar…
Image
This question is ambiguous: "How high above pre-industrial levels do you think average global temperature will rise between now and 2100?"
* ...pre-industrial... between "now and 2100"?
* Where we are currently heading or where we could head? This is largely a policy question?
3/
Read 10 tweets
Glen Peters Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a very strong linear relationship between atmospheric CO2 (concentration) and cumulative CO2 emissions.

In the last days, quite a few have been commenting there are feedbacks kicking in.

A thread...

1/ Image
If atmospheric CO2 is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, then the annual change in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to annual CO2 emissions.

The ratio of the two is the 'airborne fraction', which is rather constant. Maybe a slight increase in trend lately, maybe...

2/ Image
Since emissions have leveled out in the last decade, one would expect therefore that the atmospheric increase has leveled out.

The concentration data is noisy, and it has leveled out or not depending on how it is smoothed! (look at last 10 years).

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Glen Peters Profile picture
Apr 9
Is the atmospheric growth rate of CO2 slowing down?

Total CO2 emissions have gone from 2%/yr growth (2000s) to 0%/yr (2010s).

Do we see that change in the atmosphere?

It is hard to answer 🧵



1/ rdcu.be/buifD
Image
I can make this figure incredibly complex by adjusting for ENSO (red dots and line).

We know the response of atmospheric CO2 to El Niño is lagged. This figure shows a 9 month lag, as used by Betts & Jones in their projection

But, 2023 is a La Niña?

2/ metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…
Image
The same figure with a three month lag says 2023 is a El Niño.

In either case, adjusting the growth rate for ENSO makes it look like the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is maintained, and not slowing down.

This is worrying. It should be slowing down...

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Glen Peters Profile picture
Dec 15, 2023
One of the key arguments that Norway uses to continue oil & gas developments, is that under BAU it is expected that oil & gas production will decline in line with <2°C scenarios, even with continued investment.

Let's look closer at these projections & reality...

1/ Image
Here is the projections from the 2003 report from the petroleum agency.

In reality (tweet 1) there was a dip around 2010, but production is now up around 250 million cubic again.

The forecast was totally & utterly WRONG!

2/ Image
In 2011 there was a forecast for an increase in production to 2020, but then a decline. This is probably since they started to put the Johan Sverdrup field on the books.

The increase in production was way too low, again, they got it wrong.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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