🧵CNN piece that IDF is far from victory over Hamas is fake news that simply wishes this were true. CNN offers almost no evidence and relies on cherry-picked experts who have been claiming IDF failure since 10/7. Subtext: IDF has killed Gazans for nothing. Full analysis: 1/
CNN starts out slowly: Hamas has rebuilt some fighting capabilities. Fine. Article even admits Hamas is now a “guerilla force.” But authors then speculate, cite other experts who push line that “victory” over Hamas is not in sight, then it becomes “power of Hamas is growing”! 2/
CNN’s analysis relies on Hamas “claims” — Really? Despite never admitting any combatant deaths? Hiding Deif & Issa deaths? Also open source data. CNN offers no info from IDF, citing just one unnamed “Israeli source close to military.” IDF officially rejected CNN's thesis. 3/
Scant detail CNN reveals is stunning. Definition of Hamas battalion that has “reconstituted,” the main reason why CNN claims Israel is not winning, is “rebuild some military capabilities at least once in the last six months.” ONE time in SIX months = reconstituted battalion! 4/
CNN claims only 3 of 24 Hamas battalions are “combat ineffective” but then strangely also says 13 of 24 can only “conduct sporadic largely unsuccessful guerilla-style attacks.” Huh? Sure seems these 13 are also “combat ineffective.” CNN admits IDF calls them "dismantled"! 5/
CNN enlisted experts who are long standing Israel defeatists who have been pushing “IDF cannot beat Hamas, they're stronger now” since first week of war. Missing are any contra experts that I cite below, proving CNN had an agenda, not real analysis. Here is the IDF response: 6/
CNN cites Peter Mansoor who has been pushing the “Israel is losing” narrative since day one, of course he’s not going to change course now even with IDF achievements. Already on Oct 2023 he falsely claimed IDF was simply conducting war of “revenge” that would likely fail. 7/
In May 2024 Mansoor also claimed Israeli failure, that Israel should not have gone to war, it's only a political matter, Israel is ignoring “root causes” — but real root cause is Hamas’ aim to kill all Jews! Saying Israel only wants revenge undermines his entire view on Gaza. 8/
CNN also enlists Robert Pape who has pushed "Hamas is only getting stronger" line from the beginning. Kill them — stronger. Don't kill them — stronger. See how that works? Losing key military chiefs and only lifeline for arms (Egypt) somehow grows Hamas' power in Pape's eyes. 9/
Pape has not changed his thinking since day one and no doubt CNN knew he'd provide the quotes needed, that "power of Hamas is growing." @spencerguard demolished his views in discussion below: 10/
Apparently Hamas “recruiting like crazy” points to Israeli defeat. Really? Handing untrained men a rifle while every day IDF is picking them off wherever they congregate is the Hamas rebuilding of forces? Somehow we're to believe that Hamas is actually growing its power? 11/
CNN could have brought in other experts with alternative opinions, like from @Mr_Andrew_Fox for a real analysis. They could have let others evaluate the new "data" CNN supposedly has. But CNN and its lead author (more on her below) have an anti-Israel agenda to push. 12/
Fox, of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, wrote about his recent visit to Gaza to study IDF action. He addressed this CNN article, explaining that the “IDF is losing” is part of a months long agenda, part of a “desperation” to portray Israel as losing, when it is not. 13/
Leading war expert @spencerguard has stated "Israel is, by every definition, winning in Gaza". He recently wrote in Newsweek how the demise of key Hamas leaders are “major milestones to Israel being able to achieve their immediate goals in Gaza.” 14/
Another military expert, former US general David Deputa was recently in Gaza and lauded IDF action and success in Gaza, such as in destroying tunnels. CNN notably does not describe ANY IDF successes in Gaza. 15/
We also find clues about the agenda driven narrative based on previous writings of lead author @tamaraqiblawi -- she loathes Israel & “Zionism” adding to the evidence that this CNN piece is mostly propaganda, a deliberate distortion of reality. 16/ honestreporting.com/not-again-cnn-…
Defeatists, apologists & haters say Israel can’t win because they don’t want Israel to win. Sure, IDF has lots more painful work to do given Hamas’ human shield & baby kidnapping strategy. Bravo Hamas. But to claim they are stronger today is inane, as shown in chart below. END
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🧵BOMBSHELL FINDING: Hamas inadvertently admits in new data release that far more men died than shown on “identified” list of fatalities, corroborating IDF claim of 20,000 combatants killed. Hamas reports 7x more fathers killed than mothers during war! Sources & analysis: 1/
See Hamas MoH report below. 32,152 children lost father and 4,417 lost mother. This 7.3x ratio is far higher than 2.2x adult men to woman listed on Hamas fatality list from Oct 2024. It can only mean many men killed missing from Hamas fatality list. 2/
Ratio of females age 18+ listed killed to “children who lost mothers” is almost 2:1, but for males it is 0.6:1. A staggering difference of almost 28,000 more “children who lost fathers” than a mother; this can only mean far more male fatalities not counted by Hamas. 3/
51,600 total deaths broken down as follows:
22,600 civilians
20,000 combatants
7,000 natural deaths
2,000 deaths caused by Hamas
Civilian/combatant ratio: ~1:1
See detailed analysis after 15 months of close review:
Here is estimate of children & women killed in war, using Hamas’ data, but adjusting for teen combatants, infant mortality and natural deaths. Combined ~37% of total fatalities (it was never 70% or even 50%) and ~72% of civilian fatalities (this is where the 70% came from). 2/
Key change to Hamas Jan 2025 total fatality numbers is adding in ~7,000 combatants to the 46,600 number that are not on any Hamas list or total count. It has been verified that Hamas by design limits reporting on combatant deaths. See combatant analysis below: 3/
🧵Lancet article claiming 64,000+ deaths in Gaza has many flaws, but one item in authors' final data output destroys validity of their analysis. Authors claim 52% of deaths age 45-59 are female; but Hamas' identified list of 40,700 deaths from Oct 2024 shows only 35% female. 1/
In Oct 2024 Hamas issued an updated “identified” fatality with age & sex detail. For age 45-59 it was 2,861 men & 1,557 women. So according to Lancet article that says overall Gaza deaths are 41% more than Hamas says, for this age range the undercount is 100% women, 0% males. 2/
Lancet analysis results don't make sense. It’s undisputed that more men than women die in wars, and in Gaza in all age ranges, especially within fighting age men. Claiming 1,481 missing female deaths but zero males in this age range is inane. Authors don't address or explain. 3/
🧵Arafat rejected the Clinton Parameters exactly 24 years ago in January 2001, rejecting statehood that would have ended the conflict. Every life lost since is due to Arafat saying no. Recent statements by Clinton affirms this history. Full details of offer and rejection: 1/
Overview: Following failed Camp David summit in Summer of 2000 and Arafat’s launch of 2nd Intifada, Clinton dictated a final set of peace terms in Dec 2000 (very brief summary below), well beyond offer at Camp David, and asked each side to say yes “within the Parameters.” 2/
Israeli PM Ehud Barak and his team accepted the terms “within the Parameters.” Revisionists claim this is not true, but Clinton, Saudi Prince Bandar & key American negotiators and released documents have corroborated Israel’s acceptance. See from Clinton & Dennis Ross below: 3/
🧵Ireland filed document at ICJ on Dec 20 outlining how it wants definition of genocide changed, as it admitted on Dec 11 it would do. Filing effectively proves claims of genocide against Israel at ICJ and by NGOs like Amnesty are invalid. Analysis of changes Ireland wants: 1/
Ireland’s tactic is to join the Rhoyinga genocide case (The Gambia v Myanmar), ask the ICJ here for definitional changes, mainly in how “special intent” or dolus specialis for genocide is defined and join South Africa case v Israel with new definition to use against Israel. 2/
Ireland never cared to join case vs Myanmar filed five years ago in Nov 2019. If Rhoyingas were of high concern why wait until now? Of course Ireland's sudden interest is hatred for Israel. But genocide's definition does not work for Israel, so they want to change it now. 3/
🧵With 500K+ views this fake list of "Zionist arguments" requires a full debunking. Every point Shehada makes is a lie, misrepresentation, strawman, and fake history (lots of it). Detailed thread below: 1/
1. The very first claim is a lie. That “Zionist arguments” argue “we were here first.” No “Zionist” claims Jews were the first human beings in the area, this is a strawman argument fabricated by Shehada. Instead, the fact (not an "argument") is that Jews originated in the region with a 3,000 year unbroken history that included independent kingdoms. That Jewish history in the region predates Arab and Muslim history.
2. Shehada says "many" Palestinians have Canaanite DNA. The DNA of Caananites, according to research, can be found in both Jewish and Arab populations in the region, even more so in Lebanon and Jordan. (english.tau.ac.il/news/canaanites) There have not been any Caananites on earth for some 3,000 years and there is no specific or direct connection of Caananites to Palestinians or Jews or anyone else. No human on earth today can claim a direct lineage or identity to Caananites. Palestinians sometimes claim to be direct descendants of Caananites in a feeble attempt to "predate" Jews who trace back 3,000 years.