🧵CNN piece that IDF is far from victory over Hamas is fake news that simply wishes this were true. CNN offers almost no evidence and relies on cherry-picked experts who have been claiming IDF failure since 10/7. Subtext: IDF has killed Gazans for nothing. Full analysis: 1/
CNN starts out slowly: Hamas has rebuilt some fighting capabilities. Fine. Article even admits Hamas is now a “guerilla force.” But authors then speculate, cite other experts who push line that “victory” over Hamas is not in sight, then it becomes “power of Hamas is growing”! 2/
CNN’s analysis relies on Hamas “claims” — Really? Despite never admitting any combatant deaths? Hiding Deif & Issa deaths? Also open source data. CNN offers no info from IDF, citing just one unnamed “Israeli source close to military.” IDF officially rejected CNN's thesis. 3/
Scant detail CNN reveals is stunning. Definition of Hamas battalion that has “reconstituted,” the main reason why CNN claims Israel is not winning, is “rebuild some military capabilities at least once in the last six months.” ONE time in SIX months = reconstituted battalion! 4/
CNN claims only 3 of 24 Hamas battalions are “combat ineffective” but then strangely also says 13 of 24 can only “conduct sporadic largely unsuccessful guerilla-style attacks.” Huh? Sure seems these 13 are also “combat ineffective.” CNN admits IDF calls them "dismantled"! 5/
CNN enlisted experts who are long standing Israel defeatists who have been pushing “IDF cannot beat Hamas, they're stronger now” since first week of war. Missing are any contra experts that I cite below, proving CNN had an agenda, not real analysis. Here is the IDF response: 6/
CNN cites Peter Mansoor who has been pushing the “Israel is losing” narrative since day one, of course he’s not going to change course now even with IDF achievements. Already on Oct 2023 he falsely claimed IDF was simply conducting war of “revenge” that would likely fail. 7/
In May 2024 Mansoor also claimed Israeli failure, that Israel should not have gone to war, it's only a political matter, Israel is ignoring “root causes” — but real root cause is Hamas’ aim to kill all Jews! Saying Israel only wants revenge undermines his entire view on Gaza. 8/
CNN also enlists Robert Pape who has pushed "Hamas is only getting stronger" line from the beginning. Kill them — stronger. Don't kill them — stronger. See how that works? Losing key military chiefs and only lifeline for arms (Egypt) somehow grows Hamas' power in Pape's eyes. 9/
Pape has not changed his thinking since day one and no doubt CNN knew he'd provide the quotes needed, that "power of Hamas is growing." @spencerguard demolished his views in discussion below: 10/
Apparently Hamas “recruiting like crazy” points to Israeli defeat. Really? Handing untrained men a rifle while every day IDF is picking them off wherever they congregate is the Hamas rebuilding of forces? Somehow we're to believe that Hamas is actually growing its power? 11/
CNN could have brought in other experts with alternative opinions, like from @Mr_Andrew_Fox for a real analysis. They could have let others evaluate the new "data" CNN supposedly has. But CNN and its lead author (more on her below) have an anti-Israel agenda to push. 12/
Fox, of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, wrote about his recent visit to Gaza to study IDF action. He addressed this CNN article, explaining that the “IDF is losing” is part of a months long agenda, part of a “desperation” to portray Israel as losing, when it is not. 13/
Leading war expert @spencerguard has stated "Israel is, by every definition, winning in Gaza". He recently wrote in Newsweek how the demise of key Hamas leaders are “major milestones to Israel being able to achieve their immediate goals in Gaza.” 14/
Another military expert, former US general David Deputa was recently in Gaza and lauded IDF action and success in Gaza, such as in destroying tunnels. CNN notably does not describe ANY IDF successes in Gaza. 15/
We also find clues about the agenda driven narrative based on previous writings of lead author @tamaraqiblawi -- she loathes Israel & “Zionism” adding to the evidence that this CNN piece is mostly propaganda, a deliberate distortion of reality. 16/ honestreporting.com/not-again-cnn-…
Defeatists, apologists & haters say Israel can’t win because they don’t want Israel to win. Sure, IDF has lots more painful work to do given Hamas’ human shield & baby kidnapping strategy. Bravo Hamas. But to claim they are stronger today is inane, as shown in chart below. END
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🧵Report by @Mr_Andrew_Fox debunking Hamas fatality data has been predictably attacked by Hamas defense attorneys who can't accept a group that did 10/7, kidnaps babies & rapes hostages would lie. Review of criticism and why report remains accurate: 1/ henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/q…
First, critics claim, ad nauseam, that Hamas Ministry of Health (MoH) data has been reliable in the past so it's credible today. False, as HJS report and thread below prove. Hamas vastly overstated civilian deaths in prior wars like they are now. 2/
Many react to report's key chart showing male overrepresentation in fatalities with “so what, it's known men die in wars more then women”—thereby admitting the narrative of IDF targeting women & children is false and admitting fatality list probably has many male combatants. 3/
🧵Libelous new @Airwars analysis on Israel bombing of Gaza in Oct 2023 assumes all deaths are civilian unless proven otherwise. This crazy assumption leads to their conclusion that of 606 IDF airstrikes only 32 combatants died versus 5,139 civilians or 99.4%. Analysis: 1/
According to Airwars, IDF invested millions of dollars sending up F35 & F16s, huge air force resources on 606 bombing attacks but could not kill even ONE combatant in 96% of these sorties, but did kill 8 civilians/strike. Are we supposed to take this Airwars report seriously? 2/
Fatal flaw is the "lack of information bias": Airwars does not know which males age >13 was civilian vs combatant as it does not have master list of 40,000 Hamas/PIJ militants. Airwars also does not know how many combatant deaths were omitted from any casualty list by Hamas. 3/
🧵Why does Ireland want ICJ to “broaden its interpretation” of genocide as legally defined? Why did Amnesty find law “cramped” and change it? Because ICJ 2015 ruling in Croatia case clearly proves no genocide in Gaza. Here is review of case. Worth a read to really understand: 1/
Core issue is the very high bar ICJ required to prove “special intent” under the Genocide Convention. For acts by an accused party to be genocide the “ONLY reasonable conclusion to be drawn” from those acts is to kill the group. A strict hurdle that requires hard evidence. 2/
ICJ ruling notes that Croatia argues that Serbia’s crimes are in fact such that the “ONLY reasonable inference to be drawn is that Serb leaders were motivated by genocidal intent.” But if ICJ accepts that Serbia had other specific aims, then this hurdle of intent is not met. 3/
🧵Amnesty invents new laws of genocide 5 times in its “report” which it admits. Amnesty cannot find “intent to genocide” by Israel so it literally created new standards & legal terms in a desperate attempt to find "dolus specialis." It still fails. Detail on 5 fabrications: 1/
Amnesty admits it is not following “international law” but a vague “jurisprudence” allowing them to mix & match opinions & interpretations as they wish. They falsely claim that if "direct evidence" of intent cannot be found, circumstantial evidence is good enough, voila! 2/
Amnesty fabricates more ways to show intent this time by claiming that other violations of int'l law, such as “ill-treatment of Palestinians” and basically anything bad is good enough. It gets easier and easier for Amnesty to prove intent after every page of its report. 3/
🧵Here is a pre-war image of the luxury Hamad towers where Hamas dug under to build a tunnel network where it held and killed 6 Israeli hostages. The lie of Gaza exposed: luxury civilian homes exploited by Hamas for combat. Israel is then blamed for its destruction. Detail: 1/
As disclosed today, 6 hostages were held by Hamas, then murdered, in a tunnel network with many shafts dug right under this complex of 60 5-story buildings comprising 3,000 apartments built by Qatar, in the "open air prison." Here is a map of the tunnels: 2/
Hamad Towers is a microcosm of the entire Gaza war: massive int'l aid pouring in, Gaza is actually a modern urban enclave, Hamas exploitation of civilian Gaza for war, careful IDF action within rules of war and tragic destruction blamed on Israel only. 3/ gulf-times.com/story/557266/w…
🧵Hezbollah vs IDF killed casualty ratio in Lebanon corroborates the IDF claim of at ~18,000 Hamas/PIJ combatants killed in Gaza. The 48:1 ratio in Lebanon precisely matches the ratio of Hamas vs IDF killed in Gaza. Key data & analysis below: 1/
IDF reports 46 soldiers killed in ground operations in Lebanon. Hezbollah killed are at least 2,200, identified individually by death notification, compiled by a number of observers like the one below. Hezbollah casualty counts do not appear disputed. 2/
The 2,200 killed in the ground operation matches the 3,000 Hezbollah the IDF says have been killed since 10/7. Several 100 were killed before the ground operation, others in the beeper attack, etc. Again, I have not seen disputes on these numbers. 3/