Some early thoughts about this operation. The most important factor in the war right now is Russia's manpower and force availability advantage, in particular with infantry. That is the primary reason why Ukraine is struggling to hold back Russian advances in Donetsk oblast. Russia's Kharkiv offensive further stretched Ukraine's reserves, which means Ukrainian commanders have limited forces to reinforce units that are under pressure or to stop breakthroughs.
The situation on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts is serious. The war has not seen large swings of the front line since 2022, but Russia's advances on the Pokrovsk front over the past three weeks have been relatively rapid for the 2023-2024 period. So the question is how this operation will affect the fighting elsewhere and whether these forces could have been employed more effectively in Donetsk oblast. 2/
Compared to previous crossborder operations, this one is notable in that it appears to involve Ukrainian conventional forces and not just from GUR. Ukraine likely also is not able to employ HIMARS in support of the operation because the US only authorized strikes in Belgorod oblast relevant to Russia's Kharkiv offensive. 3/
Ultimately, the two previous large crossborder operations in May-June 2023 and March 2024 had little effect on the fighting on the priority axes. The 2023 operation caught Russia by surprise and may have been a relatively effective economy of force mission (though it did not force Russia to redeploy significant forces from priority areas) but the March 2024 operation was far less successful. 4/
Since then, Russia stood up a Northern Group of Forces leading the Kharkiv offensive, and has strengthened its forces on the border. So Russia already has greater forces/conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control, and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine. It is unlikely this operation will force Russia to pull significant forces from Ukraine. 5/
Russia has improved its dynamic targeting with persistent ISR coverage from UAVs behind Ukrainian lines, which are used to locate targets for Lancets, Krasnopol, Iskander-M, and other PGMs. Russian UAV footage of Ukrainian units moving across the border suggests this problem has not been solved, which can make it dangerous to mass armor. 6/
A limited operation might be able to achieve limited goals, but a more ambitious operation carries greater risks. It is unlikely this operation will have a significant effect on the course of the war, and previous crossborder operations did not have serious domestic political ramifications for Putin. 7/
We only have limited information right now and the size and scope of the operation isn't clear, but largescale crossborder operations are more difficult now than they were in 2023 and Russia continues to advance in the Donbas. 8/
Offensive operations also risk taking higher casualties than in defense at a time when Ukrainian forces are stretched thin. Ukraine needs to maintain a favorable attrition ratio given the manpower situation, so taking heavy losses in this operation could make it more difficult for Ukraine to hold back future Russian assaults if it saps Ukraine's limited reserves. 9/
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“When North Korean troops first appeared on the battlefield last month, Ukrainian soldiers were stunned by how they moved in large groups and did not even attempt to hide from Ukrainian drones. Many were easily killed in those initial waves, but in ensuing battles, the new arrivals proved to be combat-ready, physically fit and skilled marksmen, the Ukrainians said…
But the North Koreans also fought fiercely and aggressively, demonstrating advanced war tactics…
Some North Korean troops, the documents said, repeatedly rushed to rescue their fellow wounded soldiers despite the risks of enemy attacks, causing further casualties.” washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/…
@siobhan_ogrady @serhiikorolchuk @EdR4m
"Used in infantry attacks and largely unsupported by armored vehicles or artillery, the North Koreans have appeared in videos shot from Ukrainian drones—cut down as they trek across barren fields. Ukrainian soldiers say they have been impressed by the North Koreans’ willingness to press forward even as their comrades perish alongside them...
North Korean troops have also chosen death over capture, Ukrainian soldiers say, carrying a grenade with which to blow themselves up or, in rare cases, a shiv with which to cut their arteries. One North Korean detained by Ukrainians was taken alive before but, heavily wounded, he died during transportation, according to Ukrainian officials.
'Their motivation is at a high level,' said Green. 'Their physical training is at a high level, and their readiness to die is the same.'"
@JaneLytv @DaslYoon wsj.com/world/inside-a…
"The North Korean soldiers fighting for Moscow in Russia’s Kursk region are assigned their own patches of land to assault. Unlike their Russian counterparts, they advance with almost no armored vehicles in support.
When they attack, they do not pause to regroup or retreat, as the Russians often do when they start taking heavy losses, Ukrainian soldiers and American officials say. Instead, they move under heavy fire across fields strewed with mines and will send in a wave of 40 or more troops.
If they seize a position, they do not try to secure it. They leave that to Russian reinforcements, while they drop back and prepare for another assault...
[North Korean] Reinforcements are expected 'within the next two months,' according to one senior U.S. defense official...
The North Korean forces deployed to Ukraine included around 500 officers and at least three generals, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
The generals are posted at Russian command and control headquarters, U.S. defense officials said, and that is where the objectives are decided.
The commanders decide when they need artillery and how long to wait before ground forces maneuver, a senior U.S. defense official said. They synchronize with the troops in the field, so that the troops are not talking to their Russian counterparts, to try to reduce miscommunication.
Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk said the North Korean tactics were costly but effective.
'The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,' said Oleksii, the platoon commander...
Ukrainian soldiers said the North Koreans should not be underestimated.
'They are being tested, really tested,' said Andrii, the drone commander. They did not have combat experience, he said, but 'now they are here, gaining it, and they are becoming very strong.'”
@MarcSantoraNYT @helenecooper nytimes.com/2025/01/22/wor…
A number of Russian channels say that Ukraine has began an offensive operation from near Sudzha towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye in Kursk oblast with armored vehicles. They say Ukrainian EW has been effective against their UAVs and that Ukrainian units cleared mines overnight. t.me/rusich_army/19… t.me/razvedosaa/122… t.me/RVvoenkor/83908 t.me/milinfolive/13…
Some Russian channels have been warning recently of a Ukrainian build up near Kursk and a potential offensive. Romanov warned that Ukraine would strike before January 7th. 2/ t.me/romanov_92/457…
One channel says Ukrainian forces are attacking in the direction of Leonidovo, Pushkarnoe, and Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and using IMR engineering vehicles to clear mines. 3/ t.me/rusich_army/19…
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.
"Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that will give Moscow another potent military tool to use in the war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow, according to U.S. and European officials." @wstrobel @mgordonwsj @laurnorman wsj.com/world/u-s-tell…
"A U.S. official confirmed the missiles 'have finally been delivered'...
The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.
'This is not the end,' a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia"
.@AlbertoNardelli and @nat_droz also report that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…