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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Aug 7, 2024 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Does money make people selfish? Right-wing? Meritocracy fans? Redistribution opponents? Morally self-serving?

No!

A new paper used the quasi-experimental nature of lottery wins and twin births to estimate that the relationship between wealth and attitudes is largely noncausal. Image
The only significant effect was that people became ever so slightly more opposed to taxes on wealth, real estate, and inheritances. There aren't even effects on winners' kids' political participation.

So the only effect is for the most self-serving of policy views. Funny, that.
Now, representativeness. Was the sample like the rest of the Swedish population?

Yes, pretty much. Survey respondents, parents, and their children, look to be representative, as others have found.

Image
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Now, you might be asking: How else have these large, register-linked, lottery studies been used?

Glad you asked, because they've been used for many outcomes. Let's look at some examples.
Lottery samples have shown us that the average effect of wealth on crime is bupkes.

Lottery samples have shown us ambiguous effects of wealth on happiness.

Lottery samples have shown us that people reduce their labor supply in response to winning. This level of reduction is, as @karlbykarlsmith pointed out, the amount expected by barebones neoclassical economics.

Lottery samples have been used to investigate effects of wealth on life satisfaction more than once.

Lottery samples have been used to investigate effects of wealth on health, showing results that are basically null.

Lower-quality lottery studies have shown us extreme results for effects on mental health, and the best lottery study has shown us a very small effect.

This is a good reminder that meta-analyses can mislead, where the best studies enlighten.

And finally, lottery samples have been used to investigate the effects of wealth on kids' cognitive abilities.

They've shown us that family wealth doesn't causally impact IQs.

These lottery studies are the highest around. They're large, they usually include non-winners, and they come with good measurements, making them prime studies for informing us about wealth effects.

To read this latest one on politics, click the link: nber.org/papers/w32777

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 30
Amy Wax got in trouble for remarking that she'd not seen a Black student in the top quarter of a Penn Law class.

Thanks to hacked Columbia data, we can see that she was...

Probably right!

In the decade before her statement, there were just two top-25% Black students. Image
It is *totally* plausible that she never met these students. And it's also plausible that she rarely saw Black students in the top *half*, because each year, the number of them was just 1-4.

But, despite being 8% of the class, they were ~40% of the bottom 10%-ranked students: Image
Note: Penn is on-par/slightly less elite than Columbia, so it's likely that the Black students there were somewhat *worse*, as the article notes, making her claims more likely.

This all comes from @zagrebbi's latest article. It's well worth a read!

Link: rightrationalism.art/p/black-law-st…
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 30
And there it is:

The Supreme Court has decided to maintain Birthright Citizenship.
Big day if you think Roe v. Wade was correctly decided.

My favorite part (note that I've only read 150 pages so far) was Thomas explaining that, no, the Founding g Fathers did not adopt the English feudal system.

This fact was clearly lost on the other side. Image
The Court's reliance on a random remark from a case that ultimately didn't even produce lasting changes raises the question of whether that sort of thing even matters.

Why shouldn't I cite the Dred Scott case as the law of the land? Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 26
The medical community has cured a mountain of diseases in the past several decades.

Diseases cured thread🧵

In 2013, hepatitis C was cured by direct-acting antivirals. Image
Peptic ulcers are now curable in more than 90% of patients via antibiotic triple/quad therapy (1994). Image
Sickle cell anemia was cured in 2023 for >96% of patients. Image
Read 22 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 9
Because America has made the wise decision to compensate blood donors, it has ended up supplying some 70% of the world's blood plasma.

This is one of America's top exports, and each year, America saves hundreds of thousands of lives because it does this. Image
Some people argue against plasma donation on the basis of it being disproportionately used by poorer people

They say it's exploitative: they feel that selling something your body makes is wrong if disparate in ways they care about

But it's a lifesaver!

There's also research indicating that plasma donation can be healthy!

(And there's more indicating that, with compensation, it might reduce crime in the local area.)

Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 7
It's Pride Month, so let's talk about why San Francisco is so incredibly gay.

Military policy.

🧵 Image
In 1982, Randy Shilts published his biography of Harvey Milk, entitled "The Mayor of Castro Street".

For those who don't know, Harvey Milk was the first open homosexual to be voted into public office in the state of California.

He was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Image
The biography contains a fair bit of background, not just about Harvey Milk, but about San Francisco's gay community more generally.

In its early years, San Francisco attracted large waves of mainly male migrants motivated by the promise of gold in California. Image
Read 18 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 1
My Uber driver says

- His license is suspended
- He was once a soldier for a Mafia family
- He's telling me about his time in Rikers
- He's showing me YouTube videos
- He's telling me his theories about Jews
He's telling me about gang wars he was in ad a kid.

He's wondering why all the Chinese girls are lined up - for an audition?

He says to go to Mother's Ruin for latin prostitutes.

All of this entirely unprompted.
"Yeah, these African guys, yeesh"

"I couldn't fuck that whore because I got the erectile dysfunction."

He just keeps going.
Read 6 tweets

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