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Intelschizo Profile picture
@Schizointel
Aug 7, 2024 • 22 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Why Sudzha axis of attack by Ukraine? A short thread.

First terrain taking the localized high ground can give them fire control over insanely critical GLOC for the 🇷🇺 Task Group North. Which will be highlighted in later tweets. Image
The Sudzha axis sits one of the primary rail lines that goes to Belgorod which is the main logistics depot for Task Group North in Kharkiv. Having direct fire control over this rail line shutting it down.
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Economic and Energy factors, the natural gas pipeline that flows to Hungary enters Ukraine at Sudzha this line has been shut off by the Russians since the beginning of the war, though taking this junction would be a useful propaganda victory to leverage against 🇷🇺 and 🇭🇺
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Defensibility the terrain in conjunction with pre-made defensives if 🇺🇦 throws its weight into this, it will be difficult to dislodge, along with once again having that fire control over a critical GLOC will degrade 🇷🇺 logistics and supplies to Task Group North in Kharkiv.

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Task group North was split into 4 different smaller groups and the northernmost portion was staging at Sudzha which now puts pressure on Russia's flank for this entire task force along with severing a critical GLOC for the entire Task Force.

If 🇺🇦 throws its weight on this axis and pushes for Sudzha the logistics for the entire task group North becomes significantly strained, particularly when it comes to the movement of significant quantities of equipment and supply by the ZHV via the Russian railroads.
The Line from Oryol to Kursk was knocked offline over months ago and has been regularly by OWA-UAV's. Taking Sudzha cuts the line from Lgov to Belgorod this effectively makes the only way to supply Task Group North along a single track.
This single route left several starting points such as either comes from Bryansk or Voronezh doesn't matter where, the line bottlenecks and only option left is Bulanets to Belgorod.

Green shows single route.
Orange is offline Oryol line
Red is Lgov line
Grey old tracks. Image
Older thread on Oryol line traction stations.

Last note, for now you might say there's no way Russia is operating freight rail mere kilometers from the Ukrainian border and I present to you the Tsar train which at its closest point operates 5 mi from the line of contact. This line has operated for over a year.

CORRECTION the LNG pipeline in Sudzha is still operational that is my bad. This morning reports are Ukraine has taken control of the metering station.

@tom_bike always does amazing independent work. Looking at combat related fire from satellite imagery and is able to corroborate some of the mapping that has been done on alleged Ukrainian advances in Sudzha sector.

Something to also keep an eye on that's happening further south on the opposite end of the front lines trains are being attacked with fpv drones. We did see an fpv drone attack on a Russian train in Kursk in June

The rail bridge just south of Sudzha at 51.191316,35.340380 was blown up May 1st 2022 and restored by May 4th 2022 and has been operational since bringing Russian military supplies down to Belgorod
Lgov to Sudzha to Belgorod rail line is part of The Primary Railway network of former USSR. Imagine this like a Rail Interstate Highway Network connecting all of the former USSR.

Primary Railway is denoted by thicker red lines.
Blue arrow is Sudzha.

Information from @barleybirdImage
As people are looking back for signs that may have been missed on the preparation for this offensive this convoy getting attacked might be one of them

Great set of threads on a more tactical picture

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More from @Schizointel

Intelschizo Profile picture
Jun 17
Likely Cause Identified in "Ships on Fire" Reports in Gulf of Oman/Strait of Hormuz.

Date/Time: June 17, 2025, approximately 2114 UTC
Location: ~22 NM east of Khor Fakkan Incident Type: Likely head-to-port-side collision between two large tankers

FRONT EAGLE was transiting on a steady southwesterly course, maintaining a relatively constant heading and speed consistent with normal navigation. ADALYNN was on an east by northeast course, intersecting FRONT EAGLE’s path from the latter’s port side, consistent with a classic crossing situation.

Based on AIS vectors as posted by @Osinttechnical ADALYNN appears to have crossed directly into the projected path of FRONT EAGLE, resulting in a high probability collision at or near ADALYNN’s port midships section.

Given the mass and inertia of large tankers, evasive maneuvers in the final moments would have been limited, particularly if conducted at standard transit speeds.

The fire image timestamped at 2119 UTC (five minutes after estimated collision time) supports the hypothesis of immediate structural or systems damage, most likely aboard ADALYNN which would have sustained the bulk of the damages. FIRMS thermal at 2140 UTC further validates likely ongoing combustion, likely associated with residual fuel, engine room, or cargo related ignition.
Video time lapse of the two ships.
Alot of unknowns like what role did Iranian GPS spoofing play for example and what communications if any occurred between the two ships to try and avoid the collision.

Right now appears unlikely this was an attack by Missiles or Drones nor likely to be the result of sea mines.
Read 7 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Jun 7
This is the first time Ukraine targeted a Russian military freight train carrying equipment. This one strike took out 13 tanks and 100 vehicles. It is beautiful.

This single strike took out the equipment for 1 Tank Company and 3 Motor Rifle Battalions.

Tally of lost Russian assets from attacks on Russian Military Fuel And freight trains

13x Tanks
100x Vehicles
1,430,000~ Gallons of fuel.
The attack likely on the Donetsk-Tokmak Line likely west of Volnovakha we will have to wait and see whatever footage gets released. Image
Southern Forces of Ukraine posted Russian equipment losses from this train attack which includes the following.

1x Railway Locomotive
13x Tanks
7x Artillery systems
103x units of automotive and armored equipment
10x Tank Cars (between 158,000-172,000 gallons of fuel)
Read 5 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Jun 1
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has initiated what they are calling Operation Pavutyna

Goal of this operation: Degrading Russia’s long-range strike capabilities.

Olenya and Belaya airfields specifically targeted with swarms of FPV drones remotely launched from vehicles positioned near the airfields. These mobile platforms were reportedly parked within proximity of the targets, enabling direct line-of-sight control for precise navigation and terminal attack.

Early claims to have damaged or destroyed over 40 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers, as well as at least one A-50

That's over a billion dollars worth of military hardware.

So far the videos show at least
3x TU-95 and 1x AN-12 ablaze.
Third Airbase at Ryazan now under attack from same fov drone swarm.

Read 11 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
May 11
Today's book recommendation
Solly Zuckerman's autobiography From Apes to Warlords where he talked about his service in WW2 as the Scientific Director of the British Bombing Survey Unit (BBSU) the creator of the Transportation Plan and doing Battle Damage Assessment of Allied bombing of Pantelleria 🇮🇹 during Operation Corkscrew.

Zuckerman's Transportation Plan had a simple objective cripple the German military's mobility by targeting critical components of the railway infrastructure.

The Transportation Plan was part of the shaping operations for D-Day which concentrated allied bombings of rail lines, marshalling yards, and locomotive repair facilities. The rationale was that by destroying these key elements, the German forces would be forced to rely more heavily on road transport, which was less efficient and more vulnerable to Allied attacks. This strategy was informed by his observations in Italy, where targeting rail infrastructure had significantly disrupted enemy logistics.Image
The transportation plan was enacted and as France was liberated along with Belgium treasure troves of German documents were captured describing the following with German logistics as a result of allied bombings during the transportation plan there was a overall 50% reduction in all rail traffic in the beginning of June 1944 increasing to 75% by July 30th 1944. In Northern France, rail traffic had decreased by 85% during the month of July.

To effectively disrupt the enemy’s movements, paralyze the railway system, the most economical means of transportation for any modern army. In particular, targeting locomotive hangars and repair shops to deprive the entire rail network which will force an enemy to use the road system. This results in a decisive waste of time equipment and fuel, along with exposing itself to air attacks
The strategic effect of destroying enemy railway communications is best achieved by attacks on large railway centres, containing large concentrations of locomotives and rolling stock. Secondary targets [railways, warehouses, repair sheds] are highly concentrated targets in these railway centres that are also susceptible to shelling. The high vulnerability of rolling stock to concentrated bombardment is partly explained by the indirect effects of bombs [fire spread, which greatly increase the direct effects...
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
May 2
Overnight the vessel passenger vessel conscience was attacked by 2x OWA-UAV's 14 Nautical miles Northeast of Malta as part of a Freedom Flotilla to deliver supplies to Gaza from Tunisia. No injuries among passengers or crew. Fires were extinguished after 4 hours. Many online have been quick to blame this attack on Israel.

Israel does not possess any OWA-UAV's capable of reaching the ship from Israel.
Israel also does not have any UAVs capable of aerial refueling.
Israel also does not have any uavs capable of acting as a mothership to launch other drones.

With Israel physically lacking the capability to lob a drone 2000 km away. It is unlikely this drone attack was carried out by Israel.

The entities that could have conducted the attack are in Libya.Image
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Libya does have OWA-UAV's and strike drones capable of carrying small bombs or rockets around 10kg warheads easily capable of reaching the vessel.
To clarify a bit more of the incident, there were 16 people on board at the time 12 crew and 4 passengers they were supposed to dock in Malta to pick up additional passengers to include
Greta Thunberg and retired US Army Colonel Mary Ann Wright
Read 8 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Apr 15
This time 113 years ago Titanic has struck the iceberg and initial damage assessment concluded mail hold and forward compartments are found flooding rapidly. In the mailroom, clerks are trying to save letters and parcels. 6 of the watertight compartments compromised the ship was designed to survive no more than 4 being compromised.

Thomas Andrews one of Titanic's designers confirms to Captain Smith that Titanic can stay afloat no more than 1.5-2 hours.
Transmissions of a doomed ship

CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
Position 41.44 N 50.24 W
Cape Race, Cape Cod, Along with other ships being Frankfurt, La Provence, Mount Temple, Ypiranga receive distress signals from Titanic Image
Read 43 tweets

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