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Intelschizo Profile picture
@Schizointel
Aug 7 โ€ข 22 tweets โ€ข 8 min read โ€ข Read on X
Why Sudzha axis of attack by Ukraine? A short thread.

First terrain taking the localized high ground can give them fire control over insanely critical GLOC for the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Task Group North. Which will be highlighted in later tweets. Image
The Sudzha axis sits one of the primary rail lines that goes to Belgorod which is the main logistics depot for Task Group North in Kharkiv. Having direct fire control over this rail line shutting it down.
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Economic and Energy factors, the natural gas pipeline that flows to Hungary enters Ukraine at Sudzha this line has been shut off by the Russians since the beginning of the war, though taking this junction would be a useful propaganda victory to leverage against ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ
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Defensibility the terrain in conjunction with pre-made defensives if ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ throws its weight into this, it will be difficult to dislodge, along with once again having that fire control over a critical GLOC will degrade ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ logistics and supplies to Task Group North in Kharkiv.

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Task group North was split into 4 different smaller groups and the northernmost portion was staging at Sudzha which now puts pressure on Russia's flank for this entire task force along with severing a critical GLOC for the entire Task Force.

If ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ throws its weight on this axis and pushes for Sudzha the logistics for the entire task group North becomes significantly strained, particularly when it comes to the movement of significant quantities of equipment and supply by the ZHV via the Russian railroads.
The Line from Oryol to Kursk was knocked offline over months ago and has been regularly by OWA-UAV's. Taking Sudzha cuts the line from Lgov to Belgorod this effectively makes the only way to supply Task Group North along a single track.
This single route left several starting points such as either comes from Bryansk or Voronezh doesn't matter where, the line bottlenecks and only option left is Bulanets to Belgorod.

Green shows single route.
Orange is offline Oryol line
Red is Lgov line
Grey old tracks. Image
Older thread on Oryol line traction stations.

Last note, for now you might say there's no way Russia is operating freight rail mere kilometers from the Ukrainian border and I present to you the Tsar train which at its closest point operates 5 mi from the line of contact. This line has operated for over a year.

CORRECTION the LNG pipeline in Sudzha is still operational that is my bad. This morning reports are Ukraine has taken control of the metering station.

@tom_bike always does amazing independent work. Looking at combat related fire from satellite imagery and is able to corroborate some of the mapping that has been done on alleged Ukrainian advances in Sudzha sector.

Something to also keep an eye on that's happening further south on the opposite end of the front lines trains are being attacked with fpv drones. We did see an fpv drone attack on a Russian train in Kursk in June

The rail bridge just south of Sudzha at 51.191316,35.340380 was blown up May 1st 2022 and restored by May 4th 2022 and has been operational since bringing Russian military supplies down to Belgorod
Lgov to Sudzha to Belgorod rail line is part of The Primary Railway network of former USSR. Imagine this like a Rail Interstate Highway Network connecting all of the former USSR.

Primary Railway is denoted by thicker red lines.
Blue arrow is Sudzha.

Information from @barleybirdImage
As people are looking back for signs that may have been missed on the preparation for this offensive this convoy getting attacked might be one of them

Great set of threads on a more tactical picture

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More from @Schizointel

Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 12
Well it looks like we'll have to address some of David's false claims about trains because Sudzha is part of the Russian primary rail network. This station has been in operation the entire length of the war. There was one partisan attack on one of the bridges south of the town in May of 2022. They sent the Russian Railways and the zhv and had a brand new bridge installed within 48 hours to keep uninterrupted freight rail flowing down and this train station was only closed for the first time in this war last Friday.

We will have to go over how Russia has had almost complete freedom of movement for it. Conducting rail operations this entire War. The number of times locomotive have been attacked by Ukraine. I can count on one hand. The number of times Russian zhv has been attacked. I can count on one hand. The amount of times critical rail infrastructure has been attacked. I can count on two hands and this idea that Russia won't be using a train station like Sudzha which is literally operated the entire War because it's in range of Ukrainian musicians. Guess what Tsar train is 5 mi from the line of contact and trains go down at every single day unharassed not a single attack and the Surovikin line yeah Russia's main GLOC Maine is a single rail line that's in the range the entire length and the amount of times that's been attacked I can count on one hand. The new rail line from Mariupiol 2 attacks One of which was on the granite quarry and the other completely missed the rail bridge no follow-on.Image
Perhaps go read up on the ZHV and the MTO brigades. Or really look at any of Russia's military logistical doctrine that really hasn't had drastic change since the Cold War in those exercises that they did right before invading, Ukraine and Belarus that was with the MTO brigades to try and iron out issues.
But sure David, the Russians hopped in their t62 and drove the tank all the way up over 600 km on the interstate. Instead of putting it I don't know on a train and having it transferred via the MTO Brigade whose literal job is to be the logistical support for a CAA.
Also it's literally faster to transport by train than to drive. Especially when you talk about moving an entire unit's worth of equipment. Whether it's a regiment, a battalion, a brigade or division, it's going to get there far faster by rail than by truck or by road.
Read 4 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 12
Ukrainian Intelligence hit a gold mine on Russian Logistics in near real time!

The capture of Sudzha may not seem grand on a map but the capture of the railway station may allow Ukrainian Intelligence direct access into Russian Railway Computer Systems, Schedules, Train Consists, and internal Russian Railway Communications from Dispatch to Defect Detectors.

Sudzha station besides being part of the Lgov-Belgorod Line that I've highlighted previously is part of the Moscow Railway division, which must be causing panic in Russian High Command knowing that the enemy has real time capability to view your logistical movements.

#Train
#Trains
#Locomotive
#RussianRail
#Russia
#Kurskregion
#Kursk
#KurskOperation
#Belgorod
#Belgorodregion
#BelgorodOperationImage
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Nice part is you can't really shut this thing off. A lot of those defect detectors and the signal sensors are automated. The only way you're shutting it off is if you go out there and rip the whole system apart. Which they're not going to do because that's insanely expensive and creates insane risk and safety issues for both passenger and freight rail and would leave trains out on the track completely blind as to what's in front of them so you can't really shut it off
Also, a lot of those systems transmit via radio automatically. They are tripped when a train goes by. So even if they lost access to the computer, they would now have the frequencies needed to listen in on those sensors and detectors. Which again you physically can't turn off unless you go out there and rip them apart which they're not going to do. The systems are designed so that the train out in the middle of nowhere has an ability to know if they are safe and to know what's in front of them and what's behind them. Can't shut it off
Read 5 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 10
The likely Ukrainian objective is at Belaya. Securing of Belaya will allow Ukraine to have complete control of the main and most likely southern approach to Sudzha by road and rail for Russian Forces. Securing Belaya will be able to act as a FOB and check any Russian advances in this direction. Immediately North of Belaya is local high ground that also will be able to turn the paths of approach from the south and east into well prepared kill zones. Belaya is also likely a Ukrainian decision point securing this town will give them the option to go two separate directions.

Option 1 follow the road East and go towards Oboyan.

Option 2 follow the road South and go towards Proletarskii/Rakitnoe

Either approach can directly threaten the city of Belgorod.

Taking the southern approach also gives the opportunity to potentially link up with Ukrainian forces IVO Grayvoron should this develop into third mutually supporting axis of offensive.

Red GPS icon is where Ukrainian forward elements were spotted.
Blue stars are likely decision points/objectives
Black line and black icons are the railroads
Red line is Russian defensive fortifications.

Yellow and orange shaded areas are Ukrainian occupied areas and likely minimal Ukrainian presence.

#Kurska
#Kursk
#KurskBattle
#Kurskregion
#Belgorod
#Belgorodregion
#Ukraine๏ธ
#RussiaImage
UPDATE: Belaya is likely under Ukrainian control.

Ukrainian decision point has been reached and have taken option 1 driving towards Oboyan clashing with Russian forces just outside of the town. Should the Ukrainians reach Oboyan they will have access to the E105 Highway. Gaining access onto this highway will sever a major and critical Russian GLOC from Kursk to Belgorod.

Source Russian Telegram Channel Two Majors claims that the size of the Ukrainian new breakthrough is 'several dozens of km' further south from Sudzha They say that Oboyan, located 65 km from the border, can hear the noise of the battle..Image
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Read 15 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 9
Maps for the moment based on Russian Reporting Ukrainian forces have deployed mines along the road from Suzhda to Belitsa, preventing direct access for Russians. (Highlighted in Orange) The Lgov-Belgorod Railway also traverse is the same area with several Rail Bridges there's no mention of them in the reporting though. Personally it is likely they are mining the road. They're also deploying mines near the bridges.
An Likely indicator that Ukraine
have done this yesterday with the announcement of several Railway stations being closed by the Russian Railways a station that was on that list is the Psel train station in Giri and Sudzha indicating the whole line is shut down. The placement of mines along the strip will delay the Russians and or force them to traverse further north further delaying a Russian response from Belgorod and Kharkiv making Russian forces have to practically go all the way up to Kursk and come at Ukrainian forces from the north.

#Kursk
#Kurskregion
#KurskPeoplesRepublic
#UkraineRussiaWar
#ukrainewar
#Ukraine
#trains
#railwaysImage
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Russian railroads and bridges are black lines and icons.

Russian defensive lines defensive lines are dark red lines.

Yellow is likely under Ukrainian control/influence

Orange likely has minimal ukrainian presence.
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 8
I'll have to merge these maps together later tonight but Russia has lost control of the Lgov-Belgorod Rail line. A ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Battalion-sized element from the 22nd Mechanized Brigade supported by roughly a battalion-sized element from the 88th Mechanized Brigade reached the tracks yesterday afternoon in Sudzha. Interestingly Ukrainian forces made an attempt with the 82nd Air Assault Brigade also roughly a battalion-sized element to take the town of Korenevo.

Korenevo is an interesting choice because it has a rail line that goes from Lgov directly into Ukraine to the town of Vorozhba.

The tracks from Vorozhba go directly to Sumy and Kyiv.

It is Highly Likely that securing the town of Korenevo is a must objective for Ukrainian forces. This will allow them to establish a direct rail line from Ukraine into Kursk Oblast and be able to bring in significant quantities of equipment and supplies. I think the difference between the Kursk Incursion being a Raid in Force vs a Offensive rests on the capture of Korenevo

Maps are from @MalcontentmentT and @LovelyLad_

#Kursk
#Sudzha
#Ukraine
#Russia
#UkraineWar
#Kurska
#TrainsImage
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This may also explain why Ukraine has brought a significant amount of air defense with them. If they are seeking to try and bust open a door into Kursk Oblast they need to defend the logistical hub and push Russian Aviation away and that logistical hub is Korenevo.
Essentially if they fail they can maintain their position. It's easy to defend and they can just continue to harass the Russians from a easily defendable position and at the same time maintain direct control or direct fire control over the Lgov-Belgorod railroad severing a key Russian GLOC for Task Group North while at the same time putting all kinds of logistical pressure on the city of Belgorod as well by forcing all rail traffic to go down a single line from Belgorod to Bulanets. which would be prone to OWA-UAV attack. So even if the ukrainians fail in busting a door open into Kursk they have the ability to just maintain position and put logistical strain on the Russian forces in Kharkiv and Belgorod and they would be able to withdraw whenever they want and maintain a narrative that it was just a raid.
Read 12 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 7
Using the map by @MalcontentmentT of reported ukrainian advances in Sudzha so you can see where the Ukrainian presence is in relation to Russian defensive lines and Russian GLOC for Task Group North utilized by Russian Railways and the ZHV.

Black dashed line is the railroad
Red icons are railroad Bridges
Blue X's are border crossings
Shaded yellow area is reported Ukrainian presence
Red solid lines are Russian defensive lines.

#Kursk
#Sudzha
#Sumy
#Ukraine
#RussiaImage
It's purported air defense is highly likely to be additional Buk-M1 FrankenSam yesterday 2 such systems where destroyed.
@tom_bike always does amazing independent work. Looking at combat related fire from satellite imagery and is able to corroborate some of the mapping that has been done on alleged Ukrainian advances in Sudzha sector.

Read 5 tweets

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