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Intelschizo Profile picture
@Schizointel
Aug 7 β€’ 22 tweets β€’ 8 min read β€’ Read on X
Why Sudzha axis of attack by Ukraine? A short thread.

First terrain taking the localized high ground can give them fire control over insanely critical GLOC for the πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Task Group North. Which will be highlighted in later tweets. Image
The Sudzha axis sits one of the primary rail lines that goes to Belgorod which is the main logistics depot for Task Group North in Kharkiv. Having direct fire control over this rail line shutting it down.
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Economic and Energy factors, the natural gas pipeline that flows to Hungary enters Ukraine at Sudzha this line has been shut off by the Russians since the beginning of the war, though taking this junction would be a useful propaganda victory to leverage against πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί and πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
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Defensibility the terrain in conjunction with pre-made defensives if πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ throws its weight into this, it will be difficult to dislodge, along with once again having that fire control over a critical GLOC will degrade πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί logistics and supplies to Task Group North in Kharkiv.

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Task group North was split into 4 different smaller groups and the northernmost portion was staging at Sudzha which now puts pressure on Russia's flank for this entire task force along with severing a critical GLOC for the entire Task Force.

If πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ throws its weight on this axis and pushes for Sudzha the logistics for the entire task group North becomes significantly strained, particularly when it comes to the movement of significant quantities of equipment and supply by the ZHV via the Russian railroads.
The Line from Oryol to Kursk was knocked offline over months ago and has been regularly by OWA-UAV's. Taking Sudzha cuts the line from Lgov to Belgorod this effectively makes the only way to supply Task Group North along a single track.
This single route left several starting points such as either comes from Bryansk or Voronezh doesn't matter where, the line bottlenecks and only option left is Bulanets to Belgorod.

Green shows single route.
Orange is offline Oryol line
Red is Lgov line
Grey old tracks. Image
Older thread on Oryol line traction stations.

Last note, for now you might say there's no way Russia is operating freight rail mere kilometers from the Ukrainian border and I present to you the Tsar train which at its closest point operates 5 mi from the line of contact. This line has operated for over a year.

CORRECTION the LNG pipeline in Sudzha is still operational that is my bad. This morning reports are Ukraine has taken control of the metering station.

@tom_bike always does amazing independent work. Looking at combat related fire from satellite imagery and is able to corroborate some of the mapping that has been done on alleged Ukrainian advances in Sudzha sector.

Something to also keep an eye on that's happening further south on the opposite end of the front lines trains are being attacked with fpv drones. We did see an fpv drone attack on a Russian train in Kursk in June

The rail bridge just south of Sudzha at 51.191316,35.340380 was blown up May 1st 2022 and restored by May 4th 2022 and has been operational since bringing Russian military supplies down to Belgorod
Lgov to Sudzha to Belgorod rail line is part of The Primary Railway network of former USSR. Imagine this like a Rail Interstate Highway Network connecting all of the former USSR.

Primary Railway is denoted by thicker red lines.
Blue arrow is Sudzha.

Information from @barleybirdImage
As people are looking back for signs that may have been missed on the preparation for this offensive this convoy getting attacked might be one of them

Great set of threads on a more tactical picture

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More from @Schizointel

Intelschizo Profile picture
Dec 11
Since the Israeli Air Force has destroyed the military arsenal of Syria, here's an overview of the new Syrian Army Artillery Pieces.

1. Hell Cannon Howitzers Image
2. Self Propelled Hell Cannon Image
3. Field Artillery Hell Cannon Image
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Nov 21
A updated helpful guide.

Yars = modified Topol
Rubezh = modified Yars
Oreshnik= modified Rubezh

Oreshnik=Rubezh=Yars=Topol

How to tell what you have.

Do you have a Topol?
If yes does it have MIRV's?
If yes it's a Yars.

If you remove the 3rd stage of the Yars ICBM, it is now Rubezh.

If you modify the MIRV's it is now a Oreshnik.

The Oreshnik/Rubezh it both a ICBM and IRBM.Image
This is like unlocking, a tech tree same base model and just replacing components like it's a Lego set
Russia instead of making a whole new name and whole new marketing for each tiny little modification to Topol keep it simple it's a Topol modified range or you could abbreviate it as Topol-MR

Nato stop giving every little modification its own separate reporting name.
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Nov 21
Ukrainian OWA-UAV's struck Russian 105th assembly and testing building at the site located at the Kapustin Yar Nuclear Missile Test site at Kapustin Yar Cosmodrome.

This strike was in response to Russian ICBM strike on Dnipro.

Kapustin Yar Cosmodrome is Russia's premier missile test range since 1947 and had most recently conducted on April 12th 2024 a successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The site has mainly been focused on launches of the RT-2PM Topol aka SS-25 Sickle over the past decade and had a S500 test in 2011.

Ukrainian OWA-UAV's struck the facility on July 9th 2024.

If I'm reading the map correctly should be the area highlighted in red where Ukrainian drones struck will wait for geolocation.

#Ukraine
Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow Strikes into Russia.

ATACMS
1. 67th GRAU Arsenal, a critical ammunition storage facility in Bryansk Oblast.

Storm Shadow
2. Palace Mar'ino of Prince Baratinsky
Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian OWA-UAV strikes on Russian OTHR sites in

1. Container OTHR Kovylkino, Mordovia

2. Voronezh-DM OTHR Armavir, Krasnodar Krai

3. Voronezh-M OTHR Orsk, Orenburg Oblast

Other Ukrainian OWA-UAV strikes

NIP-16 Space Tracking and Communication Center in Vitino, Crimea
Read 8 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Nov 8
20% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gone AWOL.

Ukraine mobilization and conscription is consistently at least 33% below battlefield losses.

See 47th Mechanized Brigade putting ads out on social media to try to replace battlefield losses with troops who have gone AWOL because the Ministry of Defense has not provided replacements.

Also see mobilization bill that was passed this spring that was supposed to call up 250,000 troops and 6 months later once again the Ministry of Defense is asking for 500,000 troops which they called for this time last year.

If Ukraine does not spend this winter doing literally everything possible and gets back in the mentality of everyone fights. No one quits or everyone dies. Then their country will be completely lost if they're hoping to maintain anything east of the Dnipro they need to get their head out of their ass. The Russians will be in Dnipro Oblast at current pace by March but if a fifth of the army has gone AWOL, they might see a complete front line collapse before that.
If Ukraine is hoping that the river will be a natural barrier, it won't this winter Ukraine needs to be building as many fortifications as possible and instead of creating new brigades that are at battalion level strength they need to be consolidating brigades to bring them back up to strength and they need to be sending every piece of construction equipment and engineer possible to the near rear to construct these defensive fortifications. Frontline units cannot continue to afford to split their forces in half one portion attempting to build fortifications with no equipment while the other half fights because we've seen all summer they get overrun suffer heavy casualties and then have to do the same thing all over.

The limited offensive which is Kursk has failed all objectives except for degradation of Russian Logistics though this has also failed to be exploited fully they should just withdraw and send these forces to Kupyansk and Pokrovsk where they are needed more.
I've stated many times Ukraine's need to target Russian Logistics along with @BruckenRuski in the near rear in order to shape the battlefield in Ukraine's favor. They continue to fail in this regard and as I stated multiple times, failure to do so particularly in the Southern theater by disrupting the Russian land bridge will make the situation in the Southern theater increasingly untenable with diminishing battlefield returns.

Also no doing deep strikes with limited numbers of surface-to-surface missiles will not change the situation on the ground which is severe lack of manpower as it has been for over a year and nor does it change Russia 's. Increasingly more streamlined Logistics supply chain to the front.
x.com/Schizointel/st…
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Oct 10
Welcome to the IC Waffle House
#WaffleHouseIndex Image
For those that don't know WAFFLE is an acronym that stands for

Weather
Assistance
Field
Force
Logistics &
Evacuation

Thank you @grandmastercdc
Waffle House JIOCC is part of the
USIC and falls under the purview of ODNI. Waffle House JIOCC can also be called USWAFFLECOM
Read 11 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Oct 10
You want to know how Waffle House knows whether or not to keep their restaurants open welcome to the Waffle House Joint Intelligence Operations Coordination Center. Here we have a rare photo from inside the Waffle House Intelligence Fusion Center. What sticks out besides
Operational Meteorologists SME "Dan" is the wall of monitors bringing real time status of individual Waffle House franchise stores to the WH-JIOCC which helps the team make status reports to regional managers the decision makers on whether to keep a store open or closed this information is also sent to FEMA and other Emergency Management Agencies which is used to predict likely areas that will be impacted from natural disasters to better coordinate emergency resources.Image
The European mind cannot comprehend that a Breakfast Food Chain has its own devoted intelligence center that probably has more resources than half of NATO.
Image
Read 8 tweets

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