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Intelschizo Profile picture
@Schizointel
Aug 7, 2024 • 22 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Why Sudzha axis of attack by Ukraine? A short thread.

First terrain taking the localized high ground can give them fire control over insanely critical GLOC for the 🇷🇺 Task Group North. Which will be highlighted in later tweets. Image
The Sudzha axis sits one of the primary rail lines that goes to Belgorod which is the main logistics depot for Task Group North in Kharkiv. Having direct fire control over this rail line shutting it down.
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Economic and Energy factors, the natural gas pipeline that flows to Hungary enters Ukraine at Sudzha this line has been shut off by the Russians since the beginning of the war, though taking this junction would be a useful propaganda victory to leverage against 🇷🇺 and 🇭🇺
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Defensibility the terrain in conjunction with pre-made defensives if 🇺🇦 throws its weight into this, it will be difficult to dislodge, along with once again having that fire control over a critical GLOC will degrade 🇷🇺 logistics and supplies to Task Group North in Kharkiv.

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Task group North was split into 4 different smaller groups and the northernmost portion was staging at Sudzha which now puts pressure on Russia's flank for this entire task force along with severing a critical GLOC for the entire Task Force.

If 🇺🇦 throws its weight on this axis and pushes for Sudzha the logistics for the entire task group North becomes significantly strained, particularly when it comes to the movement of significant quantities of equipment and supply by the ZHV via the Russian railroads.
The Line from Oryol to Kursk was knocked offline over months ago and has been regularly by OWA-UAV's. Taking Sudzha cuts the line from Lgov to Belgorod this effectively makes the only way to supply Task Group North along a single track.
This single route left several starting points such as either comes from Bryansk or Voronezh doesn't matter where, the line bottlenecks and only option left is Bulanets to Belgorod.

Green shows single route.
Orange is offline Oryol line
Red is Lgov line
Grey old tracks. Image
Older thread on Oryol line traction stations.

Last note, for now you might say there's no way Russia is operating freight rail mere kilometers from the Ukrainian border and I present to you the Tsar train which at its closest point operates 5 mi from the line of contact. This line has operated for over a year.

CORRECTION the LNG pipeline in Sudzha is still operational that is my bad. This morning reports are Ukraine has taken control of the metering station.

@tom_bike always does amazing independent work. Looking at combat related fire from satellite imagery and is able to corroborate some of the mapping that has been done on alleged Ukrainian advances in Sudzha sector.

Something to also keep an eye on that's happening further south on the opposite end of the front lines trains are being attacked with fpv drones. We did see an fpv drone attack on a Russian train in Kursk in June

The rail bridge just south of Sudzha at 51.191316,35.340380 was blown up May 1st 2022 and restored by May 4th 2022 and has been operational since bringing Russian military supplies down to Belgorod
Lgov to Sudzha to Belgorod rail line is part of The Primary Railway network of former USSR. Imagine this like a Rail Interstate Highway Network connecting all of the former USSR.

Primary Railway is denoted by thicker red lines.
Blue arrow is Sudzha.

Information from @barleybirdImage
As people are looking back for signs that may have been missed on the preparation for this offensive this convoy getting attacked might be one of them

Great set of threads on a more tactical picture

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More from @Schizointel

Intelschizo Profile picture
Mar 9
In 24 hours Ukraine has lost almost half of Kursk and have very likely have withdrawn West of the Psel River and South of the Loknya River and seeking to maintain the Russian built defenses West and South of Sudzha to defend the R-200 Road to allow for withdrawal from Kursk and counter attack at Kurilovka to retake the high ground from the North Koreans along with counter attacking the Russians at Basivka, Noven'ke, and Zhuravka in Sumy Oblast.Image
Ukrainian forces are likely withdrawing from Kursk to Sumy Oblast under Russian and North Korean counterattacks aimed at disrupting their retreat. A controlled withdrawal with strong rear-guard actions will allow Ukraine to withdraw to existing defenses and stabilize the front. Failure to secure withdrawal corridors will very likely result in encirclement and collapse. Maintaining layered defenses, delaying actions, and executing contingency plans prevents Russian forces from seizing the operational initiative.

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)

Ukrainian forces conduct a controlled, phased withdrawal while maintaining defensive cohesion. Rear-guard elements execute delaying actions, slowing Russian advances and enabling an organized retreat to pre-designated defensive positions.
Russian forces engage retreating Ukrainian units but fail to achieve a breakthrough, preventing an operational collapse. Ukrainian forces establish new defensive positions in Sumy Oblast, stabilizing the front and limiting further Russian penetration.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

Russian forces exploit gaps in Ukrainian defenses, executing a high-tempo assault that overwhelms rear-guard elements. Ukrainian units become disorganized under pressure, leading to a loss of command and control. Russian forces rapidly advance, cutting off key withdrawal routes and isolating Ukrainian units.
Ukrainian defenses within Sumy Oblast collapse, leading to an unstructured retreat or encirclement, placing the city of Sumy at risk of capture.

Key factors in Ukraine maintaining a secure phased withdrawal.

1. Ukrainian forces must maintain control over layered defensive positions along withdrawal routes to prevent Russian envelopment.

2. Rear-guard elements must conduct delaying operations to slow Russian advances and allow for an organized retreat.

3. Continuous monitoring of Russian movements is necessary to detect and counter potential envelopment maneuvers.

4. In the case of a Russian breakthrough Ukrainian forces must execute pre-planned fallback strategies to secondary defensive lines to prevent further collapse.

5. Maintaining discipline in withdrawal operations and prioritizing defensive depth, Ukrainian forces can minimize losses and prevent Russian forces from dictating the operational tempo from Kursk into Sumy Oblast.
Read 4 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Jan 28
So update on the Murder of Vermont Border Patrol Agent David Maland

VT Digger has been doing a great job on reporting

Suspects in Vermont were connected with a cult called the Zizians a radical offshoot of the Rationalist movement and is described as a murder gang

Youngblut, and Bauckholt had been under surveillance since Jan. 14, when an employee of a hotel in Lyndonville, Vermont, reported seeing the pair dressed in black tactical clothing and protective equipment, according to the affidavit. The employee also told officials that they observed Youngblut carrying a holstered firearm. Vermont State Police and Department of Homeland Security investigators approached Youngblut and Bauckholt that day, according to the affidavit, but the pair “declined to have an extended conversation.” Youngblut and Bauckholt allegedly told investigators they were “in the vicinity to look at purchasing property,” and checked out of the hotel that afternoon.

Multiple Border Patrol agents in three vehicles pulled over Teresa Youngblut and, Felix Bauckholt, for an immigration inspection around 3 p.m. on Jan. 20, according to an FBI affidavit. During the traffic stop, Youngblut drew and fired a handgun toward at least one agent without warning, Bauckholt also attempted to draw a firearm, according to the affidavit, and at least one Border Patrol agent fired at the pair with his 9mm service weapon. 

FBI agents who searched the car found a ballistic helmet, night-vision goggles, 48 rounds of ammunition, used shooting range targets, and a dozen electronic devices, according to the affidavit. Authorities also found cell phones wrapped in aluminum foil at the scene.

A third associate Maximilian Snyder who has filed marriage paperwork with Teresa Youngblut was arrested in California for Jan. 17 2025 stabbing death of Curtis Lind in Vallejo California.

Snyder, Youngblut, Bauckholt are also suspects in a double homicide in Pennsylvania.

Curtis Lind the man murdered by Synder had in 2022 been severely injured in the violent dispute with tenants who where part of this cult group and a search of the property turned up used surgical equipment, more than a dozen laptops, and expensive electronics stashed inside the cargo trucks where the alleged assailants lived, which were registered in Vermont.

Youngblut had a shared leased of a property in Shelburne Vermont and had traveled abroad in 2022, 2023, 2024. The German may have also been involved in a shooting in Vermont

This whole thing is like a crazy schizo story
vtdigger.org/2025/01/27/sus…
vtdigger.org/2025/01/27/pro…
Read 7 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Jan 8
LAFD Units that have responded to areas IVO Palisades fire

Air Assets
AO1, AO2, H0A, H0C, H0D, H0F, H1, H2, H3, H4, HA1, HA2, HA3, HA4, HA7, HT2, HT3

Arson Investigators
AR1, AR11, AR33, AR34

Command
BC4, BC5, BC9, BC10
BC11, BC17, BC18, BC701
BC705, BC706, BC717, BC721
CM20, CM22, CM40, CM42
CM51, CM52, PI1, SO1, PB1880, PH1

Brush Patrol
BP8, BP19, BP23, BP44,
BP74, BP84, BP99, BP109,
CW3A

Engines
E1, E1B, E3, E3S, E4, E5, E6S, E11, E12, E14, E15, E17, E19, E20, E23, E26, E27, E29, E33, E34, E35, E37, E38, E39, E41, E41C, E43, E43C, E48, E49, E58, E59, E61, E62, E63, E64, E66, E67, E68, E69, E70, E71, E73, E75, E82, E82C,E85, E88, E90, E93, E94, E95
E98, E105, E109, E201, E205, E209, E221, E226, E227, E229, E235, E237
E260, E261, E263, E269, E278
E287, E290, E292, E295, E8136
E8137, E8138, E8139, E8140

Rescue Ambulance
AP43, EM5, EM9, EM17, EM18
RA19, RA23, RA27, RA37, RA56, RA58
RA69, RA71, RA92, RA97, RA862, RA867

Trucks
T5, T21, T26, T27, T29, T35, T37
T60, T61, T63, T69, T87, T90
T92, T95

Urban Search & Rescue Units
UR5
UR88

Water Tenders
WT77, WT88

Other units
Dozer 41, Dozer 42, Dozer 45
Emergency Air 1,
Emergency Air 2,
Fast Response 91,
Fast Response 115,
Heavy Equipment 1,
Heavy Rescue 3, Squad 95,
Support Utility 4

Non LAFD Units (
2x Canadair CL-415 Super Scoopers
USFS
2 Air Attack Planes,
1 Lead Plane,
4 LAT’s (large airtankers),
1 Task Force,
4 Type 3 Engines
1 Water Tender.
This list does not include all the mutual aid from neighboring fire districts that are covering other stations or mutual aid that may have responded as well
Nor does this list include law enforcement assets
Read 14 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Jan 5
Ukraine has gone on the offensive in Kursk

Ukraine is spearheading 3 different assaults towards
Bolshoe Soldatskoe
Pushkarnoe
Leonidovo

These towns are defended by
Akhmat, 810th, North Koreans, and several storm Z units.

Russian channels been showing footage of Ukrainian forces using a large number of mine clearers, tanks, armoured vehicles, and report heavily utilising electronic warfare making most drones useless.

Meanwhile Russians are attacking into Sumy on the border where they have been trying for last 2 weeks and in
Kursk near Malaya Loknya

Ran out of room to showcase the rest of the Russian units on the Western Side of Kursk check out @JominiW latest update from December 20th 2024 as a reference!

Based on Russian reports the Ukrainians are having the most successful today so far near
Bolshoe Soldatskoe which is defended by AkhmatImage
A good thread by @NOELreports breaking down the events of the day

Read 10 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Dec 29, 2024
The central route China is getting fed up with Russia and wants to cut them out of the picture and take their sphere of influence from Central Asia all part of the European Silk Road project
They just had a major conference in Vienna just after Thanksgiving to discuss further enhancements of the One belt, One Road Initiative and the China Europe Railway Express specifically bypassing Russia taking a litany of different routes main route though goes from China through Uzbekistan Turkmenistan and then into Iran and either from there going to Azerbaijan, Turkey and then Bulgaria or going from Iran through part of Syria into Turkey and then Bulgaria. There are other lines as well that go from China through Tajikistan, Afghanistan and then into Iran and from China through Kyrgyzstan into Uzbekistan and then the aforementioned routes to Turkey.Image
Image
China Europe Railway Express has had massive shift in policy from Russia through Central Asia into Europe since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 due to shippers concerns about rail volumes being caught in sanctions were they to pass through Russia. 

Trans-Caspian International Transport Route has seen goal of four-fold increase of Chinese goods going to European markets this year.

Other metrics of the China, Europe Railway Express this year have seen 10,000 trips in 200 days primarily along Central Asian routes and have opened freight rail from Chongqing to Istanbul

China-Kazakhstan (Xi'an) Trade Logistics was also created this year in 2024 for the creation of a railway hub specifically to accommodate increased Chinese goods to move through Central Asia to European markets instead of going through Russia.

More metrics over the last year due to tons of resources poured into railway infrastructure upgrades across Central Asia. Travel times from China to Europe through Central Asian routes bypassing Russia decreased by 2 days making travel from China to Europe. A 10-day trip 2 days faster than going through Russia and reduced stopover time from 8 hours to 6
Read 6 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Dec 22, 2024
🚨BREAKING US NAVY FRIENDLY FIRE IN RED SEA

USS Gettysburg (CG-64) shot down an F-18 Hornet from the USS Harry S Truman (CVN-75) over the Red Sea while coalition aircraft were conducting strikes on the Houthis.
Both pilots recovered safely one with minor injuries.

USS Gettysburg (CG-64) is the cruiser escort for USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) part of Carrier Strike Group 8.

Other ships in Carrier Strike Group 8
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75)
USS Gettysburg (CG-64)
USS Stout (DDG-55)
USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109).
Read 8 tweets

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