Thread by @LovelyLad_

The Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Quick Thread🧵

Yesterday a Ukrainian Mixed BTG from the 82nd Air Assault brigade crossed the border into Kursk Oblast with the objective of breaching the border's minefields and destroying the weak Russian Border Guard elements there.

The BTG would be have all battalion CSS assets such as POL and Ammo trucks, Field Kitchens etc
Engineering assets would also be attached such as the M1132 Stryker Minefield Breaching vehicle the specific vehicle we saw was using Mine rollers.

Its combat elements according to open source footage and images would be at least one company equipped with Cougar MRAPs and likely 2 others with M1126 Strykers.
One tank company of 12 tanks has also been reported to cross the border but I haven't seen much proof as of yet.

This operation tactically has been conducted a lot better than previous cross-border Ops.
Like it looks like some reconnaissance was conducted and friendly minefields were in fact known.
Proper mine breaching equipment was in use, Fire Support and Air reconnaissance were working.

In the morning of August 6th a Ukrainian M1136 created a breach in the border's minefields which allowed for the BTG to start crossing the border into Russia.
Destroying the weak Russian holdouts on the border villages would be their first objective

Then the objective on the western grouping would be to bypass the Russian AT Ditch through the road and secure the Russian entrenchments just north of it.
This would be their first hurtle as the position was marked by Russian FDCs which would strike them with Artillery and a TBM.

The company would lose most of its Cougars, the state of the infantry is unknown but casualties were definitely suffered.

by the end of the day the LOA would be reached by most units and overnight CSS units would cross into Russia, soon we might even see Artillery units conduct fire missions from inside Russia.

Today it seems like Ukraine is trying to outflank Sudzha, some people are suggesting that they are trying to encircle the town but I find the forces in use too inadequate to perform such a maneuver at least an additional brigade would be required for that.

What I see is the Ukrainians trying to outflank Suzha which I also find very difficult with the current forces, as the northern flank has to be screened during operations and with one company already having suffered serious damage that becomes even harder

The likely objective for today is the capture of Kazachnaya Loknya as it is a very important height north of Sudzha which will be necessary combined with the heights south of it for the quick capture of the town

Even with these goals the deployment of an additional BTG would be more than warranted and it may just happen but we will have to wait and see.

Generally I don't believe that this incursion would be worth the cost even if it is successful assuming that it manages to destroy the Russian battalion or larger sized force in the town of Sudzha, then the town would just get reinforced again from the sizable Russian reserve.

Thanks for reading