Thread by @emilkastehelmi

The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.

In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.

The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/

Why was this possible?

1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership

2. Inadequate Russian border forces

3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions

2/

The actual goals are still unclear. Ukraine might try to shift some of the Russian focus from other areas to Kursk. Ukraine may also seek better positions for future negotiations, if the purpose of the operation is to take over and hold land areas for a longer period of time. 3/

The Kursk operation may also have longer-lasting effects, as it likely forces Russia to commit even more troops to the border. Russia has most likely expected only limited-scale attacks on border villages, not a stronger and wider offensive by elements of multiple brigades. 4/

Besides the scale, it’s notable that the current Kursk offensive isn’t conducted by Russian volunteer units, like the previous ones. We actually have not yet seen proof of Russian Volunteer Corps or Freedom of Russia Legion participating in it. 5/

As Ukraine tries to take the initiative in the northeastern border regions, there is a possibility for follow-up operations. After creating confusion and forcing Russia to react in Kursk, Ukraine could try to attack somewhere else too, if there are still available forces left. 6/

There are also downsides. While Russia loses land, the operation also attrits limited Ukrainian reserves at a time when manpower issues are still present and when there is a dire need for additional units elsewhere, especially in the Donetsk oblast. 7/

I’m also dubious that the current developments could force the Russians to halt operations in Donetsk. Russia should have enough reserves to pull from other directions to contain the Ukrainian advance. 8/

To alter the strategic situation, Ukraine should expand the breakthrough further. They aren’t threatening any larger cities yet, and have at the moment mostly taken fields and small villages/towns. However, even the current situation is a political nuisance to Russia. 9/

It should be noted that the Russian fortifications in the area consist of anti-tank ditches & obstacles and strongpoints. There are not multiple layers of trenches and other infantry fighting positions. In the map, the most significant fortifications in the area. 10/

The map at the beginning of the thread is a moderate estimate of the situation. Ukrainians are likely deeper, at least in some areas. However, there’s very limited proof, and the information we receive is mostly from Russian sources. Ukrainian OPSEC is tight at the moment. 11/

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor and assess the situation. We’ll post more when we know more. 12/12

Link to our interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…