1/ I still think this could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas. However, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong. The stakes are very high, and there is significant potential here. The outcome is unclear
2/ Russian troops on the border, including FSB border troops and conscripts, were enough to stop small incursions but clearly not enough to stop the advance of the combined force that Ukraine assembled for this assault.
3/ The large number of POWs is a big humanitarian win for Ukraine. This is a good chance to exchange Ukrainian prisoners and a huge win for the families of Ukrainian soldiers who have been waiting for their loved ones for over a year. Incredible job by the Ukrainian Forces.
4/ When it comes to response forces, Russia is likely to use its internal reserves located in Kursk, Moscow, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts. We might also see units from the "North" grouping. The absence of a swift reaction shows that they were not informed or assembled
5/ So far, there is no evidence of Russian forces slowing down their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, nor is there evidence that Russia is moving any reserves or units from the "Center" grouping of forces. This can change, but not at the moment, hence my skepticism.
6/ It's hard to gauge the moral blow to Russian society. Social media posts and influencers show they are unpleasantly shocked and clearly upset. However, it's uncertain how long this will last, as they quickly moved on from the losses of Kherson and the retreat from Kyiv Oblast
7/ Russia failed to identify this assault, showing a significant improvement in Ukrainian counterintelligence measures. Despite advanced ISR capabilities, Russian forces failed to interpret the concentration of Ukrainian forces as an offensive maneuver.
8/ I currently have serious reservations about the logistical capabilities needed to sustain deep advancements into Russian territory, as well as the ability to continuously support these forces with AD and EW. However, I will refrain from drawing conclusions at this moment.
9/ Maintaining such intensity of assault and advancement would require a continuous infusion of resources, where Ukraine has constraints. As a result, we might see an eventual slowdown, potentially leading to a pullback or an effort to seize and fortify current positions.
10/ The lack of timely assembled reaction forces on the RU side gives AFU crucial time to organize their defense. As time goes on, it might become more difficult for Russia to retake territories, similar to how Ukrainian forces are still struggling to regain control in Kharkiv
11/ Overall, it's unlikely that we are nearing the end of the operation, so these conclusions are early and preliminary. My hope is for a total victory by the AFU forces, allowing me to write a follow-up apology thread acknowledging how wrong my initial assessment was.
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One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
🧵Thread:
2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic
When Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in Syria, a critical geopolitical question emerged: can Russia maintain its foothold in the MENA region, and if so, how? What does this mean for Ukraine? Below are the key points from the latest Frontelligence Insight report:
2/ Maxar satellite images, dated December 17, show an unusual buildup of vehicles at the Tartus Naval Base. Video from site show that most of these vehicles are logistical, with only a few appearing to be combat vehicles. We identified approximately 150 vehicles and 29 containers
3/ It is assessed that the vehicles are likely being prepared for evacuation from the Tartus by naval vessels. Indications suggest that two Russian cargo ships, Sparta and Ursa Major, could be involved in the operation. It could take over a week for them to reach the port