Now that we have had a couple of days to observe the new Ukrainian cross-border attack into Kursk, I wanted to offer a quick assessment of what we know, as well as Ukraine's potential objectives and the challenges it faces. 1/23 🧵( (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ Surprise is an important continuity in human competition and warfare. The aim is to shock an adversary and overwhelm them when they are their weakest or when they least expect it. That shock, and the accompanying break down in enemy cohesion & ability to effectively respond, can then be used to seize ground and destroy enemy formations.
3/ It appears that yet again, the Ukrainians have surprised Russia, and observers in the west, with their latest operation. Over the past 72 hours, we have watched as Ukraine has launched a significant cross-border assault into Russia’s Kursk region.
4/ Initially viewed as another raid into Russia, similar to the previous Ukrainian operations in May 2023 and March 2024, it has become clear that this is something different. Despite our ability to only see a small part of what is occurring in Kursk, there are several aspects of this new Ukrainian operation which are apparent.
5/ First, this is a multi-brigade operation. At least two Ukrainian brigades have been identified so far: the 22ndMechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. These are both quality formations. It appears that unlike in the 2023 southern counteroffensive where fresh brigades were employed, the Ukrainians have allocated experienced formations to this attack.
6/ Second, the Ukrainians have attacked with a highly mobile, mechanised force. This is different to the Russian dismounted attacks into Kharkiv in recent months. A high level of mobility is essential to creating or exploiting gaps in enemy defences, and rapidly exploiting such gaps. Speed and shock action are vital.
7/ Third, the Ukrainians appear to have deployed a significant amount of air defence capability. At least one Russian fighter aircraft and two helicopters have been claimed to have been shot down by the Ukrainians. There has been, as of this point, limited reports of Russia being able to use glide bombs or even large numbers of drones to counter the Ukrainian assault. This is indicative of a more effective air defence environment for the Ukrainians than was created for their 2023 counter offensives.
8/ Fourth, Ukraine has penetrated a good distance into Russia on at least two axes of advance. Main and supporting efforts are unclear. However, the situation remains very unclear and Ukrainian forces could be much deeper into Russia than we know. This constitutes the biggest advance by any side in this war since late 2022.
9/ Fifth, Ukraine has achieved surprise. This is an important theme to note given the obsession of some with describing this war as a ‘transparent battlefield’. This, again, shows that the battlefield is far from transparent, and that deception activities, good intelligence, and surprise are crucial elements of modern war.
10/ More importantly, the Ukrainian cross-border attack shows that surprise is still possible, and that offensive operations are also possible despite the prevalence of the defence in the past year.
11/ So, what might Ukraine's objectives - tactical, operational, strategic and political - be for their Kursk operation?
12/ At the most basic tactical level, this operation will be about seizing ground and destroying Russian ground and aerial forces. That is the central role of ground forces in war. But it is the operational and strategic purpose of conducting operations to seize ground and destroy the enemy that is interesting.
13/ There are a couple of possible operational objectives for this Ukrainian attack. First, Ukraine may be seeking to draw Russian forces away from its attacks on the Niu-York and its advances on Toretsk and Pokrovsk. This might be possible, but given Russia’s advantage in manpower, one would have to assess that this outcome is probably unlikely.
14/ Another operational objective, which is more likely to be realised, is to force the Russians to reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line. The Russians will have to respond, and even they do not have a bottomless pit of resources to do so. To respond to the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region, they will have to stop defending somewhere else.
15/ Ukraine may have some specific operational objectives in mind which are related to ground. The Kursk nuclear power station may be one objective, but that still lies 60 kilometres from the border with #Ukraine, well beyond where Ukraine is currently thought to be operating. Key road and railway lines might also be interrupted.
16/ The strategic objectives of this attack can only be estimated at this early stage. First, the attack might be an attempt to slow or kill Russian momentum in its offensives which have lasted for the duration of 2024. Ukrainian planners will understand that even Russia can’t remain on the offensive forever.
17/ A 2nd strategic objective might be to shift the narrative on the war to one more positive for Ukraine and counter Russian misinformation about their ‘inevitable victory’ in Ukraine. The 2022 offensive in Kharkiv not only stunned the world but shifted the narrative on Ukraine’s ability to prosecute the war and resulted in a significant change in the west’s approach to providing aid.
18/ A 3rd strategic objective may be to boost morale in the Ukrainian population. Given the past 8 months of defensive operations, constant aerial attacks on infrastructure and ongoing power shortages, the will of the people will be at the forefront of the Ukrainian government’s considerations about the trajectory of the war.
19/ A 4th strategic objective for Ukraine might be to do what the Russians are doing in eastern Ukraine at the moment – grab as much territory as possible in case Ukraine is forced into some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of 2024 or in early 2025. Negotiating with some of your enemy’s territory is much better than negotiating without it.
20/ Ukraine faces a daunting array of issues as it moves forward with this operation. These include tactical, operational, strategic and political challenges. I explore these in detail in my new (free) article at Futura Doctrina, which can be read at the link. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-o…
21/ Time will tell whether using these Ukrainian brigades to attack into Russia rather than defending eastern Ukraine has been the most strategically effective use of their forces.
22/ At a time when Ukrainian defenders in the east are being pushed back on several axes, the use of highly capable Ukrainian combat forces in Kursk is either a brilliant countermove to shift the momentum in the war, or a strategic error which compounds the challenges in Ukraine’s eastern Ukraine defensive operations.
23/ There is no way yet to make this assessment, however. As with all war, there is an abundance of uncertainty at the early stage of this Ukrainian offensive. Not only are we unsure about just how far the Ukrainians have penetrated, but we are also unsure of the strategic & political objectives of this operation. There is much more to learn in the coming days. End.
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It is the night before Russia's Victory Day parade, and all through Moscow, air defenders are stirring. There has been a lot of discussion about the potential for a Ukrainian attack during the parade, so I thought I would explore this issue in more detail. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The head of Ukrainian military intelligence General Budanov intimated in his own way that the Russians should “bring ear plugs”. But what might be the strategic rationale for a Ukrainian attack against the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow?
3/ To answer this, there are 4 key issues that need to be resolved. 1. Can Ukraine penetrate Russia's air defence & get its drones to Red Square? 2. What might be the advantages of an attack? 3. What would be the downsides of an attack? 4. Is this just a big deception plan?
There has been a lot of coverage about the Ukrainian uncrewed vessel shooting down at least one, possibly two Russian fighter bombers recently. It is a significant moment in 21st century war. But military institutions have much to do to exploit such capabilities. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
(Image: Naval News)
2/ Over the last year, there have been multiple events where uncrewed systems have launched other uncrewed systems and weapons to attack Russian forces. This has occured at sea and on land. It represents next generation robotic warfare.
3/ It is transforming the character of war. But to fully exploit this capability, military institutions must make tough decisions about the balance of crewed and uncrewed systems, as well as the balance between exquisite and cheap, massed systems.
I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week I explore Russia's '3-day peace' proposal, Russian casualties, the minerals deal, and the North Koreans learn and adapt. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ The minerals deal is interesting. In 2017 Trump agreed with the President of Afghanistan that the US would help Afghanistan with its minerals. Trump then went behind Ghani’s back to negotiate an exit from Afghanistan with the Taliban. We should not expect too much from the U.S.-Ukraine agreement.
3/ Russia's monthly casualties have crept up this year to 40K per month.The maps in my update provide an indication of just how expensive each kilometre of Ukrainian territory has become for Russian forces, and what a poor return on their investment this has been for the Russian military. (Graph: @DefenceHQ)
An Easter truce has been declared by Putin. Not only is this a cynical act of someone who has sustained his aim to subjugate #Ukraine, it has huge practical challenges. So why has Putin done this and what does it mean for the war? 1/10 🧵 politico.eu/article/putin-…
2/ The truce is a short one - about a day. It is a truce that Putin has called unilaterally, so it is not binding on the Ukrainians in any way. That Putin has done this shows that he still believes that he has the upper hand in the war, and can dictate its tempo.
3/ But war is an interactive endeavour, and does not work like that. The Ukrainians and Russians are engaged along a nearly 1000 kilometre front line. The Russians have recently stepped up the tempo of attacks, and this momentum can’t just be turned off like a spigot.
Over the past three years, both sides in the #Ukraine war have learned and adapted. Battlefield, strategic and international collaboration and adaptation are accelerating and intensifying, resulting in a global Adaptation War. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦
2/ In my latest piece, I examine how Ukraine and Russia have both 'learned to learn better' since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022. I also look at their key battlefield and strategic adaptations.
3/ I also explore the emerging collaboration and adaptation between authoritarians. Russia's war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East have spawned a rapid expansion in the sharing of insights between Russia, Iran, China and North Korea.
In short, the ‘leader of the free world’ is considering siding fully with a brutal authoritarian, endorsing its invasion of a democracy, and agreeing with forced territorial expansion. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦 reuters.com/world/trump-en…
2/ This will legitimise and encourage the same behaviour elsewhere in Europe by Putin, who is already conducting subversion and sabotage across the continent, and preparing his military for future aggression against other nations in Eastern Europe. The current posture and signalling from the Trump administration makes future war elsewhere in Europe almost certain.
3/ The leaders in Iran, North Korea and China are watching closely. Each have aggressive designs against democratic neighbours. Each will be highly encouraged by this clownish, amateur negotiating style and demonstrated lack of interest in defending democratic nations and values.