1/ What Britain is witnessing is the beginning of Dark Blairism. This is the final stage in the collapse of the country. 🇬🇧🪦🧵
2/ The first iteration of Blairism was a happy-go-lucky affair. Blair and co were Marxists of a variety, but happy Marxists who rejected state socialism and embraced cultural radicalism - a new, freer society where different groups would live in harmony.
3/ But society rejected this vision. People had “biases” - a false consciousness of sorts, mostly amongst the uneducated gammons and chuds. They couldn’t get into Oxbridge to study with Tony, so the state needed to be used to educate them.
4/ Educating the gammons didn’t work. In 2001, they rioted. Annoying.
5/ At the same time the left-wing were busy rejecting Blair’s neoliberal economic vision. These people were suffering from false consciousness too. They didn’t understand that hypercapitalism, married to a didactic police state, was the path to personal actualisation.
6/ Why not kill two birds with one stone? Turn the left-wing on the gammons. Allow them to distract themselves with the ‘far right’ so they don’t complain about financialisation and the collapse of well-paid manufacturing jobs. They just needed a slogan: “anti-fascism”.
7/ Then the financial crisis hit and Blair’s fake pleasure economy collapsed. Annoying.
8/ Worse still, those stupid left-wing protestors were back. Instead of reading Derrida on the “deconstruction of race” or Stuart Hall on “reception theory” they were whining about the economy. Very annoying.
9/ No problem. Turn on the left. Send in the cops. Push them back into the libraries to “decode texts” and hand the broken economy to the Tories for 15 years.
10/ Interlude. Everything gets worse under the Tories. The culture sours and turns weird. Immigration goes absolutely bonkers. The economy stagnates. Tories collapse.
11/ Here comes Keir. Starmer is like Blair but much more embedded in the state. He was the head of the Crown Prosecution Service and knows how to use the cops when needs be.
12/ Within weeks of Starmer taking power, his Chancellor - another civil servant type from the Bank of England - informs the public that the Blairite neoliberal model has driven Britain into bankruptcy.
13/ That’s fine though. It means the Blairites can hand over control to technocrats while they work on finalising the cultural change at the heart of their project. The Office of Budget Responsibility will manage Britain’s bankruptcy, lowering living standards gradually.
14/ All going according to plan. But wait! More riots! This time bigger than 2001. Annoying.
15/ Annoying, yes. But also an opportunity. For what? Applying Blair-era counter-terrorism laws to British people angry about immigration policy. Education didn’t work. How about laws that are probably not constitutional?
16/ What about the left-wing? Eventually they are going to notice the economic decline. Hmmm. Maybe get them focused on the far right? Maybe even ally them with the police? Very good. This could work!
17/ Welcome to Dark Blairism. Declining living standards managed by technocrats. Civil unrest and disorder. Ethnic conflict. Collapsing social trust. Extra-constitutional legal processes.
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1/ Now that we have the results let’s take a look at the Shy Trump Effect and how it performed. Remember: when applying the Shy Trump Effect to the polls all we are doing is standard statistical practice. Why can’t @NateSilver538 and @FiveThirtyEight figure it out? 🤷♂️
2/ Some of the swing states haven’t been called but we have some idea of spread. In what follows I will use ‘Trump’s Lead Over Harris’ as the measure. Just as in the original Shy Trump Effect prediction thread.
3/ We start with Arizona.
Polls = +2.6%
Shy Trump Model = +4.9
Result = +4.7%
1/ The US election is here. If you analyze the polls properly you'll see that @realDonaldTrump is ahead of @KamalaHarris by anywhere between 2.4% and 6.9% in the swing states. The reason the media won't tell you this is because they don't understand the Shy Trump Effect. 🇺🇸🧵
2/ The polls show consistent bias against @realDonaldTrump. This is not due to cheating but due to quirks in the polling. More later. For now, let us just look at polls versus outcomes. Here are the November polls in 2020 versus the actual results. They were way off.
3/ Despite these not being the swing states in 2016, we see a similar pattern of polls missing their mark by a long shot in 2016. Again, the polls always showed @realDonaldTrump way behind what his actual results would be.
1/ Despite not becoming Tory leader @RobertJenrick tried to raise serious economic issues in the recent contest. Britain appears locked into 5 year old culture war issues even as its economy looks on the brink of collapse. Britain needs a serious debate on this ASAP. 🧵
2/ @RobertJenrick recognised that one key issue is energy. He advocated switching from green investments into nuclear, specifically small modular reactors (SMR). Britain needs a new energy policy ASAP but it seems highly unlikely the country can develop its own SMRs.
3/ The only country that has successfully built a functional SMR is, you guessed it: China. The Linglong One was brought online at the start of this year.
1/ We have been treated to 48 hours of hot garbage on what happened at the BRICS summit around alternative financing relationships. In this thread we will go through the garbage and look at what actually happened.
2/ Start with the silliest first. Some people were circulating a picture of an actual BRICS banknote, as if the BRICS would adopt a single currency like the euro. This would be like the G7 adopting a single currency. Nonsensical.
3/ The actual source of this was a symbolic gesture between the Russians and the UAE last year. BRICS will never, ever adopt a single currency as that would be utterly ridiculous economically.
1/ In a new study undertaken in partnership with @hiia_budapest I compare the relative geoeconomic strength of NATO and the BRICS+. We do not think a war between these is likely, but a war between members might turn these into autarkic trading blocs.
2/ Our first major finding is that the economies of the two groupings are now roughly the same size, with BRICS+ being slightly larger. This is an enormous development. Policymakers seem to imagine that we live around the year 2000 in this regard. They’re dead wrong.
3/ We also find that the BRICS+ is far ahead on steel production, of which NATO has barely any. It seems unlikely NATO would be able to build sufficient materiel without access to BRICS+ steel. Very important finding.
1/ Here is a thread on why recent record sales by the Chinese of US Treasuries might be one of the first signs of a major fiscal crisis in the US. There is a lot of confusion about how this would work so let's go through it step by step.
2/ What matters here is not overall US government debt but rather the balance of payments. If a country runs a trade deficit this must be offset by financial inflows on the financial account to maintain equilibrium.
3/ The United States runs a consistent, large trade deficit. As predicted - because it is a necessity - this trade deficit must be matched with financial inflows. Let's look at what those inflows are.