1/ What Britain is witnessing is the beginning of Dark Blairism. This is the final stage in the collapse of the country. 🇬🇧🪦🧵
2/ The first iteration of Blairism was a happy-go-lucky affair. Blair and co were Marxists of a variety, but happy Marxists who rejected state socialism and embraced cultural radicalism - a new, freer society where different groups would live in harmony.
3/ But society rejected this vision. People had “biases” - a false consciousness of sorts, mostly amongst the uneducated gammons and chuds. They couldn’t get into Oxbridge to study with Tony, so the state needed to be used to educate them.
4/ Educating the gammons didn’t work. In 2001, they rioted. Annoying.
5/ At the same time the left-wing were busy rejecting Blair’s neoliberal economic vision. These people were suffering from false consciousness too. They didn’t understand that hypercapitalism, married to a didactic police state, was the path to personal actualisation.
6/ Why not kill two birds with one stone? Turn the left-wing on the gammons. Allow them to distract themselves with the ‘far right’ so they don’t complain about financialisation and the collapse of well-paid manufacturing jobs. They just needed a slogan: “anti-fascism”.
7/ Then the financial crisis hit and Blair’s fake pleasure economy collapsed. Annoying.
8/ Worse still, those stupid left-wing protestors were back. Instead of reading Derrida on the “deconstruction of race” or Stuart Hall on “reception theory” they were whining about the economy. Very annoying.
9/ No problem. Turn on the left. Send in the cops. Push them back into the libraries to “decode texts” and hand the broken economy to the Tories for 15 years.
10/ Interlude. Everything gets worse under the Tories. The culture sours and turns weird. Immigration goes absolutely bonkers. The economy stagnates. Tories collapse.
11/ Here comes Keir. Starmer is like Blair but much more embedded in the state. He was the head of the Crown Prosecution Service and knows how to use the cops when needs be.
12/ Within weeks of Starmer taking power, his Chancellor - another civil servant type from the Bank of England - informs the public that the Blairite neoliberal model has driven Britain into bankruptcy.
13/ That’s fine though. It means the Blairites can hand over control to technocrats while they work on finalising the cultural change at the heart of their project. The Office of Budget Responsibility will manage Britain’s bankruptcy, lowering living standards gradually.
14/ All going according to plan. But wait! More riots! This time bigger than 2001. Annoying.
15/ Annoying, yes. But also an opportunity. For what? Applying Blair-era counter-terrorism laws to British people angry about immigration policy. Education didn’t work. How about laws that are probably not constitutional?
16/ What about the left-wing? Eventually they are going to notice the economic decline. Hmmm. Maybe get them focused on the far right? Maybe even ally them with the police? Very good. This could work!
17/ Welcome to Dark Blairism. Declining living standards managed by technocrats. Civil unrest and disorder. Ethnic conflict. Collapsing social trust. Extra-constitutional legal processes.
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1/ What is actually happening in Argentina? Has Milei fixed the country? Or do the deep structural problems remain - and are they getting worse? 🇦🇷🧵
2/ The main positive headline is that the Milei government’s cuts have created a government surplus. They have, but this is a distraction as the government deficit was never causing the inflation.
3/ In 2023 the deficit was less than 3% of GDP which is quite modest. For context, Argentina’s neighbour Brazil had a deficit of nearly 9% in 2023 and inflation is below 5%. Milei’s obsession with the deficit is not serious economic analysis.
1/ The media isn’t reporting it but the Biden administration appears to be going into full Hitler-in-the-bunker mode and trying to destroy global energy markets to crush the EU economy and lower American living standards through more inflation to hurt Trump. 🧵
2/ It started with a new sanctions package quietly rolled out on Nov 21st a few weeks after the election. Most didn’t pay attention as the Russian sanctions have been seen as redundant by smart people for over a year now.
3/ But these sanctions were different. They used sanctions on Gazprombank - which the EU buys gas through - to try to interfere with EU energy supplies.
1/ EXCLUSIVE. After extensive investigation and months of on-the-ground reporting I am now able to provide a deep anthropological exposé of the Turboamerica Ecosystem. Join me as I explore this strange and exotic phenomenon. 🚀🇺🇸🧵
2/ The ecosystem is populated with two broad species of creatures. At the top of the hierarchy we have the ‘slopbloggers’ and at the bottom we have the ‘chudpoasters’.
3/ Chudpoasters derive their name from the slur popularised by dirtbag leftist writers some years ago. This characterisation of the right-wing was inaccurate as the right is remarkably intellectually interesting right now but it was correct in that chuds do exist.
1/ With China beefing up its gold reserves and largely opting out of the market for foreign holdings of US Treasuries - which is already causing liquidity problems - it’s useful to get a sense of what the Chinese are saying about this internally. 🧵
2/ Here we turn to the latest issue of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations’ journal. CICIR is an important government-affiliated think tank that has been around since 1965. So borderline official doctrine coming from this shop.
3/ In the Contents section we see not one, but two articles on the US dollar. ‘The Exorbitant Privilege of US Treasuries and China’s Choice in the New Era’ and ‘Impact of Financial Sanctions on the Dollar’s International Status’.
1/ Now that we have the results let’s take a look at the Shy Trump Effect and how it performed. Remember: when applying the Shy Trump Effect to the polls all we are doing is standard statistical practice. Why can’t @NateSilver538 and @FiveThirtyEight figure it out? 🤷♂️
2/ Some of the swing states haven’t been called but we have some idea of spread. In what follows I will use ‘Trump’s Lead Over Harris’ as the measure. Just as in the original Shy Trump Effect prediction thread.
3/ We start with Arizona.
Polls = +2.6%
Shy Trump Model = +4.9
Result = +4.7%
1/ The US election is here. If you analyze the polls properly you'll see that @realDonaldTrump is ahead of @KamalaHarris by anywhere between 2.4% and 6.9% in the swing states. The reason the media won't tell you this is because they don't understand the Shy Trump Effect. 🇺🇸🧵
2/ The polls show consistent bias against @realDonaldTrump. This is not due to cheating but due to quirks in the polling. More later. For now, let us just look at polls versus outcomes. Here are the November polls in 2020 versus the actual results. They were way off.
3/ Despite these not being the swing states in 2016, we see a similar pattern of polls missing their mark by a long shot in 2016. Again, the polls always showed @realDonaldTrump way behind what his actual results would be.